Will we have a dominant rotation of lyles,wandy,norris at the helm in 2014? To me lyles seems like a #3 but everyone here bigger hopes for him, i don't know, hope Im wrong but so far Ive yet to see anything but its still way too early in his career. If we can add appel from stanford in the draft, we'll have a nice big 4 in 2014 hopefully
If you want a best case scenario I'd say that would be Shane Reynolds...good but not great yet very steady.
And there's nothing wrong with that. Shane was very good in some years. I don't get this obsession with labeling guys as aces, or #1s, etc. There is absolutely nothing wrong with having an average to slightly above average player. Below average players accumulating a lot of playing time is what kills teams.
But this is baseball. Top Prospects are not even guaranteed a MLB appearance, much less a long mediocre career.
Jordan Lyles will likely not be an ace, but he could be. He is very young and should be a much better pitcher by the time he is 25-30 (his peak years).
still doesn't mean you don't want your top prospect to be better than slightly above average. everyone knows it's not guaranteed, but it's the hope going into it.
Two things.. First, a rotation of Wandy, Lyles, and Norris would never be considered dominant. Maybe if you dropped Oswalt circa 2005 in there, but I still have my doubts that Norris will find continued success at this level. Second, who here has ever said they expect Lyles to be an ace. We're excited because he's the most promising young pitcher the Astros system has developed since RoyO. With that said, there are numerous scouting reports on the kid that say he will be a solid SP at the highest level with a chance to stick in the league for a while, but they all have his peak as a solid number 3 barring the development of an out pitch. Best case scenario: Andy Pettite like "Hall of Very Good" career. Worst case: Jon Garland back end of the rotation workhorse. Bottom line: Lyles isn't ever going to be overpowering. But he seems to be smart, levelheaded, and durable. His ceiling is more of a #2 than an ace, but his floor is still good enough to stick around for 10 years.
I know that the Astros are a long way from worrying about this, but in the playoffs, you need at least 2 dominant starting pitchers. I think that a guy with average stuff with above average durability is the perfect 3-4 pitcher. If you can get a .500 record out of your 3-4 guys, and they go deep into almost every game, you can do well.
Correct, did not mean it as a put down rather a complement. Shane was a great #3 who could also be a VERY solid #2 when called upon. You could count on 6-7 innings and expect to be right in the game if not in control of that game. I'd be giddy if Lyles turned into Shane...giddy.
The problem is that he is the ASTROS top prospect. If he was in Atlanta's, Tampa's or Texas' systems then we are talking about a 6-10 type prospect not a #1. It speaks to the state of the Stros organization much more than Lyles but saying that, top prospects even in good systems fail while underdogs thrive all the time.
Shane will never be accused of being in Clemens, Johnson, etc.'s league, and was never a "dominant" force, but he was this team's ace. Opening day starter several years in a row, won 15 or more games several years in a row including back-to-back 18-win seasons. Also was routinely in the top 5 in the league for K's. Solid and very consistent yet unspectacular. Awesome work ethic. Shane was a real gamer; I'd take him on my team every day and twice on Sunday.
I think for a 20 year old, to have the poise and control that he's shown so far this year...he has the goods to be a very solid pitcher. Ace?...not really sure how to define that. But IMO: *Smooth delivery--decreases chance of serious elbow/shoulder injuries *Control--likely to get even better as he ages *Poise--I haven't seen him get visibly rattled yet *Athleticism--will help him make mechanical changes to his delivery when needed *Repetoire--4 solid pitches To me, if he stays healthy I see no reason why he won't be a very solid rotation pitcher. I've never liked the title "Ace" because that insinuates that he's a strikeout pitcher that throws 97. To me, it's about getting outs and based on his tools, I think he'll be able to do that effectively.
meh. to me, the "Ace" has always been your go-to guy, your stopper, the guy you throw on opening day and count on for 15 or more wins (18 if you have a good team). Greg Maddox back in the day wasn't a flamethrower by any stretch, but was absolutely an ace.
Lyles definitely has ace potential. His stuff while not ace caliber right now ( from what I've seen in the majors ) can develop in the future. He has a 6 foot 4 fram with plenty of room to add power. Keep in mind there were reports when tha astros drafted him that he could get up to 96 on the radar gun ( i dont know where the article was but i remeber it ) I think he is alittle worn down and the offseason will do him good. IF he takes a nice break and add a little muscle during the offseason i think he could easily get back up to sitting at around 92-3 on the fastball ... the fastest ive seen him get this year has been 92 but he sits at 90-1 pretty consistently. Also I read somewhere that isnt the speed of his fastball that makes it so good, its how close to home plate he releases it due to his length. Sure his secondary pitches leave something to be desired but if he works hard at them they should come with time. Control and mound presence are his two biggest bonusses and those should only get better with time. Although for someone who supposedly has control as their best virtue he hasnt exactly wowed me with it yet .. hopefuly he will. Overall i see lyles ceiling as a maddux type of pitcher ... not overpowering stuff but if he gets his other pitches up to a high enough level i see him having enough brains and skill with locating his pitches that he can be an ace. I also see a little bit of halladay in him. His fastball has excellent movement. The pettitte comparison earlier was also very good. Keep in mind that those are just comparisons.. he probably wont be on maddux' or halladay's level but he could a very similar type of pitcher.
No. Lyles' best case ceiling is as a solid no. 2 starter. He does not have the stuff that you can project top of the rotation potential. Most likely he will wind up being a good middle rotation guy.
Also, please, please, please stop comparing Lyles to Maddux. Maddux was one in a thousand. More than a thousand. There are literally hundreds of pitchers in the minors and hundreds more in college ball with 80-something mile per hour fastballs who live off of their ability to control their pitches and mix in secondary stuff. How many of them turn into Greg Maddux? How many legitimate, right-handed aces are there in the game today whose fastballs have averaged less than 90mph over the course of their careers? If you're waiting for Lyles to become the next Maddux, you're going to be waiting a very long time. Putting such expectations on him is setting yourself up for disappointment. Don't be shocked if he ends up with something like a career 4.00 ERA.
