Why Stros-Sox are closer in all respects and full breakdown

A lot of the prognosticators are simplistically saying the Chi-Sox are close to sure thing to win (e.g., ESPN guys and others, essentially Kruc and Reynolds said this too, Gammons picked the Sox but at least admitted a more even series). The argument goes something like pitching will dominate and the Sox will eventually produce a few big hits to make the difference.

I think this ignores a number of factors. When you compare offensive statistics, you must factor in the DH. On the season the Sox hit 200 HRs, the Stros 161, in real difference you need to at minimum half this difference just b/c of the DH (maybe 20HR projected on the season differential). Also consider the Astros, despite no DH, had more doubles and more triples, and very close number of total bases (2349 for Sox, 2228 for the Stros) that probably at best is even, or even favors the Stros, removing the influence of the DH. Strike outs are pretty even for both teams' hitters as well. People act like Houston is facing an even pitching team to them (next point) with the Red Sox or Yankee's offense--far from it. Overall, offensively these teams are similarly average to below average, and very close with the DH factored in .

To be fair on pitching you must adjust for DH as well. So the Sox 3.61ERA (tied for best in AL) compares well with the 3.51ERA for the Stros (.02 off StL MLB best mark of 3.49). There are some other ways that the Stros pitching stands out from all others. When you consider ERA as well as opponents BA, strikeouts, and strike outs to walks--the Stros have the most dominant pitching in the league. Sox pitchers rely a lot more on their defense. But teams can't use their speed and can't manufacture runs if they can't get on base and the pitchers can rely on the strike out--which Oswalt and Clemens in particular, but also Petite are ahead of all 4 of the Chi-sox starters. This isn't to say the Chi-Sox guys are not quality pitchers, the Cardinals had a lot of quality pitchers too, but there is a difference between quality pitchers who well utilize a good defense and dominating pitchers who you have trouble making contact with. I think those that say the Sox have the edge because they have 4 starters versus the 3 more potentially dominating Astros starters is flat false. The Stros rotation will be set up with 3 more dominating and more playoff experienced starters, one middle game to Backe, who pitched well last time anyway, does not tip the balance. In terms of the bullpen, both teams have the regular season stats, the Stros have also shown it in the pressure of post season. I don't see how you can give the edge to the Sox there.

How about competition? Sorry, defeating the leagues best team with a healthy rotation (Cardinals) plus another long time locked up division winner (Atl) who was well rested is much better preparation for the World Series than an out of gas Boston team who never got to even start their ace and whose bullpen blew apart and an Angels team who also lost their ace and had their rotation blown up. Further, if not for a few blown calls and a big error, those series would have gone further, but make no mistake the Sox were going to win eventually with the state of those other teams staffs. Defeating this year's Angles teams and Red Sox teams 7-1 looks mighty impressive on paper, but context is important too. Plus the Sox were never really forced to see how they respond to much adversity.

How about home field? MMP is a much greater advantage for Stros than in the Chi-Sox park. For 1, the noise level is much greater in MMP. More importantly however, I think the Stros will adapt to having the DH better than the Sox taking it away from them. In fact, for a NL team, the DH works rather well for the Stros. Before the Stros were having to compromise between speed, defense, who is hot with the bat, and bat power. In Chicago you will play Berk at his best position (1st), Taveras at CF, Burke at LF, Lane at RF, Big at 2nd, AE at SS, ME at 3rd, and Ausmus at C every line-up. Then you have Lamb versus righties and Bags versus lefties as DH, which is probably what their roles should be anyway. Further, all of a sudden your offensive line up is pretty solid all the way through with Ausmus and Everitt as relatively dangerous 8th and 9th hitters who will get good pitches, and opponents get no breaks. On Chi side, coming into MMP, they have to deal with the noise, having their inexperienced hitting pitchers facing power pitchers, and you take out the DH that means they sit their 3rd power guy (sit Everett) or weaken their defense and team #1 speed guy (sit Podsednik). Overall, because of greater adjustments for Chi and the more unique environment of MMP home field in this series cancels out despite the up to 4 games in Chi.

Defense I think both teams have strong infields and outfields, particularly when games are played in Chi (Berk at 1st, Lamb or Bags as DH). One important aspect is Ausmus is better than Pierzynski. Ausmus is above average, AJ is below average. Both teams should be able to run (Molina was a nightmare to try to run), but AJ and his pitchers are somewhat easier than Ausmus and the Stros pitchers. Overall I’d call it close to even.

In conclusion, I really can't see how anyone thinks either team has a decided advantage. If the Stros had not won yesterday, and had to extend Clemens and the bullpen heavily, different story. But I think the timing for the series is ideal for the Stros. Not enough time to get rusty, but enough time to freshen up the bullpen and get Clemens, Petite and Oswalt ready for 6 starts if needed with 4+ days between every start. The pressure and approach to opponents hitters will be a lot different on the Sox starters when they know their opposing pitchers are only going to give up 2-3 runs--whole different story with what they have had to face in the playoffs and exactly the kind of tight intense games Stros got from the Braves and Cardinals where 1 bad pitch can decide the outcome.

I think the games will be dramatic and tight, but I’d put my money on the Stros defense and trifecta of starters making fewer mistakes and being able to keep manufactured scoring way down. Just like how they beat the Cardinals and Braves.

Stros win two out of four in Chicago to win in 7 behind Roy is my call.

 

Shameless bump. Nobody thinks I am not giving the CWS enough credit (are they better defensively than the Stros?), or visa versa.