I know it's a bit early, but I do think the Astros will win the NL Central Pennant. But I'm really asking this because Dale Robertson (Chronicle) managed to really annoy me with this: Of course they can. As to whether they will ... better check with Shane Reynolds. Assuming pitching does win pennants, he simply must make himself the front-and-center Astro the rest of the way. It has been a delight watching Houston's kids come of age. Seeing the light go on for Wade Miller and watching Roy Oswalt's improbable rise from Class AA to National League mainstay in a matter of weeks will make for good memories no matter how the season turns out. Picking up Pedro Astacio for the stretch run was a blessing, even though it did require the Astros to officially give up on Scott Elarton. But if the Astros are going anywhere, they can only get there by following Reynolds' lead. The once and former staff ace must unequivocally reclaim that status, and indications are that's his all-abiding intention. . Shane Reynolds. Ace of the staff? Sorry, man. Let's look at the stats first. Here are three anonymous pitchers ERA Wins Losses Hits Innings Walks Pitcher A 3.98 12 6 129 149.1 54 Pitcher B 4.55 11 10 171 144.1 29 Pitcher C 3.41 9 2 83 89.1 18 Pitcher D 4.11 4 8 82 87.2 27 Which pitcher would you want on the mound for you if each could start every day? Well, pitcher A gives up the fewest hits per innings, but has less control than the others. Pitcher B has great control, but gives up way too many hits. Pitcher C has great control, gives up few hits, and has a low ERA and great record. Pitcher D has a poor w/l record, but has a decent ERA and has also given up fewer hits than innings. Pitchers A and C would each be fine choices. D would be somewhat inferior. B would discernibly be the inferior decision. Pitcher A = Wade Miller Pitcher B = Shane Reynolds Pitcher C = Roy Oswalt Pitcher D = Astacio away from Coors Some might argue that the Rick Ankiel disaster of last season merits consideration. Well, not really. For one, Both Miller and Oswalt are older than Ankiel was at the time. Secondly, many pitchers as young or younger than Oswalt and Miller have pitched fine in important situations. Doc Gooden, for instance. Ankiel was a fluke. In a five game series, if your team goes to a three man rotation, one pitcher is only going to get one start. That should clearly be Reynolds, not Miller or Oswalt. In fact, I think a decent case can even be made that Astacio is a superior pitcher than Reynolds, and should be given the 3rd slot. Reynolds ERA on the road is actually a respectable 3.42, but pitching in Coors is so ridiculously difficult that their pitchers have often developed funks... and Astacio's hits per innings is a good indication of his ability. I'd go into the post season with 1. Miller - Best combination of experience and talent 2. Oswalt - Most talented, and will still get 2 starts in 5 games, but is the youngest 3. Reynolds - Edges out Astacio slightly
Wow im shocked at those numbers but I'd have astacio start game 2 which im prettty sure will happen. Don't think they want to trade for a 8-9 million pitcher without starting him in a 5 game series. Astacio's numbers in his 2 starts have been great also, hopefully he can keep it up. Im thinking reynolds will start game one since he has the playoff experience and miller taking game 3. Whoever we play hopefully thats all the starting pitchers we'll need!
More than likely the race will go down to the wire and the Astros won't have the luxury of arranging their staff. However, if they can arrange the staff AND the 4 main guys all pitch equally well the rest of the season, I would think you would see Reynolds, Miller and Astacio in the 1st 3 games in that order. The way the race is going, I suspect things will work themselves out on their own and the game 1 and 2 decision will make itself. We'll also see if Dierker still harbors any ill will towards Reynolds in the playoffs. Remember, he was uncomplimentary of Reynolds' effort in game 4 of the Braves playoff series in 1999.
bobrek: But what about Oswalt? I think most people would agree with me that he's the best pitcher on the Astro's roster right now . Forget the future Cy Young predictions... Roy Oswalt has better #'s than any other Astros pitcher, and he has better raw "stuff" than any other Astros pitcher. Why not start your best pitcher instead of two decent veterans? I'd put him in the #2 slot to avoid pressure... but I think you have to play your best guys in crunch times. Not guys who have "paid their dues."
I am predicting what they will do. Again, if everyone pitches equally well the rest of the year I would go with Miller, Oswalt and Reynolds in that order. If they do make the playoffs it will be hard for them NOT to pitch Astacio from a business perspective.
You've got to pitch your aces, but you should factor in who you are pitching against and if you are at home. I'd like to see the home versus away era's. If some of our pitchers are built for enron then they should start there. That being said, the rookies should pitch at home. The adrenaline will kick in with the youngsters. You want your veterans pitching on the road. Game 1: Oswalt, Clearly the most dominant pitcher. Rookie may get some adrenaline going at home. Game 2: Miller, Again, he earned it. Game 3: Personally, I think you need a veteran to pitch game 3. That is going to be the key game no matter the series record. This is where the pressure really begins. So I'd pitch Astacio. Game 4: Reynolds. If your down in the series you have a veteran to take you on the road and if your down, that means clearly your rookies didn't get it done anyway. If your ahead in the series you get the luxury of wasting Reynolds on the road, and if you lose, you have Game 5 to win it. Then go to a 3 man rotation the rest of the way. Oswalt, Miller, and Astacio. How cool must it be for Astacio!
Kent Bottenfield deserves the start. Only two years removed from an 18 win season, "K-Bott" has the veteran leadership and experience to take it to the next level. He is a proven winner and will continue to baffle hitters with his mid-80's fastball and his knee-buckling curveball. In case you didn't notice I was being sarcastic.... Since the playoffs start right after the regular season, the Astros may just have to go with whoever's turn it is. In the past, we have gone with 3 starters, such as against SD and Atlanta. Should one of the starters get into trouble early, we may call on Oswalt for relief. You cannot afford to lose a game in a 5-game series, so you have to bring all your guns. Don't expect Mlicki or Villone to pitch in the playoffs. We may add a couple of utility players or a lefthanded bat via waivers.
This is a tough question. The season could go down to the wire and then the decision will be made for the Astros. The playoffs are so much different from the regular season. Shane has the experience of the 3 different playoff appearances but his stuff is probably #3 or even #4 right now behind Miller, Oswalt, and Astacio. Also let's not forget matchups. If one pitcher has a particularly great record against a particular team that guy might get the start just based on that. I hope we get the chance to discuss this later in the season!
When considering you will pitch in the playoffs, one thing to remember is the 1st half stats mean nothing. It has do with who a has pitched well recently, and now that Reynolds is back to 100%, he is the ace for the Astros, which says a lot. With his playoff experience, he will be the man on the mound games 1 and 4. It's a nice 1-2-3 punch, isn't it? Reynolds, Oswalt, Miller Maddux, Glavine, Burkett Johnson, Schilling, ???? Wood, Leiber, ???? Brown, Park, ????
Greg#3: If you don't care for stats... Roy Oswalt throws harder with more movement. He has more "good pitches" than Reynolds. How on earth could Reynolds be a better pitcher?
haven, While I agree, and I think most here would, that Oswalt is easily the best pitcher on the staff, you need to take into account that he's one year removed from AA. He simply doesn't have the experience to be a number one starter in the playoffs in my opinion. Reynolds or Astacio should be the man. However, I agree with those who've stated that it will probably be whoever's turn is up as it appears this may go down to the wire.
