Who says the MLB All-Star game doesn't matter?

leroy · Jul 13, 2010

Does the All-Star game predict midterm gains?

By DANIEL STRAUSS | 7/13/10 4:54 PM EDT

Forget about the pundits’ predictions for the midterm elections.

It turns out that one of the best ways to figure out the fate of the Democratic House and Senate majorities is to follow the box score of Tuesday night’s Major League Baseball All-Star game.

According to an analysis by University of Minnesota professor Eric J. Ostermeier, who writes the Smart Politics blog, a National League victory in the Mid-Season Classic has preceded every election with double-digit GOP House gains since 1950.

The pattern is similar in the Senate. Since 1948, every time the National League has won Republicans have gained at least five Senate seats. The flipside, however, is also true in the upper chamber: American League victories have preceded Democratic gains of five or more Senate seats since 1948.

The type of victory, it seems, is also revealing. Ostermeier’s study found that when the National League rallied late in the game to win, Republicans made landslide House gains, ranging from 34 seats to 54 seats.

In 1994, for example, when the NL tied the game in the 9th before winning an extra inning nailbiter, the GOP picked up 54 seats. In 1966, when the NL won on a 10th inning single, Republicans posted a 47 seat gain.

“In many of these years with the Republican tsunamis –1966, 1980, 1994 –the National League had dramatic come-from-behind victories,” Ostermeier said.

While the National League has a 13-year winless streak. Ostermeier predicts the drought will end this year.

“I have to stick by the data and I have to go with the upset because all signs point to a big victory in Congress and that can only go with a National League victory,” he said.
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Hmmm. Might have to root for the AL tonight.

mc mark · Jul 13, 2010

Well the AL is 12 - 1 - 0 the last 13 American classics, so really I guess the pressure is really on for somebody.

:grin:

smokieethabear · Jul 13, 2010

MLB doesn't matter IMO! :grin:

leroy · Jul 14, 2010

Oh crap. Is winning it in the 7th considered "late in the game"? If so, look for big gains from the right.

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