Where the REAL action is

I regret that we only get 10 poll options. Hopefully we can make up for that in the commentary.

By reasoning explained below, before real battlegrounds, I posit that we start this race at Obama 217 - McCain 154.

I'm listing the top five battleground prizes (in order of most electoral votes). Vote for as many as you think either candidate will win. If people have fun with this poll, I'll do another for the next five states. (*Note: It was a tough choice, but I chose to list VA instead of NC here even though NC has more EV's just because VA seems so much closer. In NC, McCain has a slightly bigger lead.)

Now on to my commentary....

There have been so many threads about the election already here, but there have been none or very few dedicated to the battleground states that will determine its outcome.

Among all the big stories that this election has engendered, I would argue the biggest is how profoundly the electoral map has changed with regard to the battleground states.

In previous recent elections, I'd say 13 states have been regarded to be true battlegrounds.

In this election, judging from polling and anecdotal evidence, some of the usual major battleground states are still considered battlegrounds:

FL, OH, PA, MI, NM, NV

A few though seem to have dropped off that list in favor of the Democrat:

OR, WA, MN, WI, NJ

These states are still considered battlegrounds, but seem to be nearly safely blue:

NH, IA

Here's the kicker. These states haven't been battlegrounds in ages. Today they are:

VA, CO, MT, ND, IN, MO, NC, GA, AK

If you assume NJ, MN, WI, WA, OR and IA will go Obama (and polls make these almost safe states) and that GA will go McCain (he's pretty safe there too), that still makes an astounding 15 battleground states.

If the remaining states go as expected, Obama will start with 217 and McCain will have 154.

Here are the latest poll averages from realclearpolitics.com, in order of EV's (AK and ND didn't have rcp averages, so I averaged the latest polls from pollster.com) for the remaining 15 states:

FL (27) - McCain +2.2
PA (21) - Obama +7.7
OH (20) - Obama +4.5
MI (17) - Obama +2.0
NC (15) - McCain +4.5
VA (13) - McCain +0.7
IN (11) - Obama +0.5
MO (11) - McCain +2.5
CO (9) - Obama +5.3
NM (5) - Obama +3.0
NV (5) - TIE
NH (4) - Obama + 0.7 (though the only poll this month has O +11)
AK (3) - McCain +3.0
MT (3) - McCain +3.7 (the only poll this month has O +5)
ND (3) - TIE