Lock if posted! Sorry, I haven't been on in a few days.... At any rate....as we all know, the Astros traded two of the team's icons and veterans leaders in Roy Oswalt and Lance Berkman this past Friday/Saturday...Ed Wade made some comments that the team was not in rebuilding mode, but rather the team was looking to make the team better and set itself up for the future and that you always have to look for ways to get better...ya, he could have gotten better pieces for what he gave up, but let's take it for what really is going...the astros are rebuilding... Morey has made all these moves in the past few years to get the team to be a championship contender...t-mac, landry trade for k-mart, the signing of scola from san antonio, getting value from a pic like brooks....the team says they still want to build around yao...but obviously health is concern...it's also obvious that the acquisition of miller isn't for a long term solution...it's also a potential for concern for kevin martin....we also may not know if a guy like hill and/or patterson can reach their full potential.... that leads me to my question...at what point (I'm not saying now or even a year or two from now) do the rockets come to the realization that they need to scrap their current plan and rebuild? One obvious answer is if Yao has another career ending injury, but I'd be interested to see what Clutchfans opinion on when and what they should do...
I don't know that it really works that way in the NBA. Sure, some teams go through a rebuilding process, but many continue on without it. If Yao retires or proves that he cannot be much of a player any more, then we have to acquire another franchise player. The way I see it, Morey already has the assets to do something like that. We could also trade away are older players for younger ones, but Scola, Battier, and Miller are pretty much who we would be able to trade a way. I somewhat hope we keep our draft picks from the knicks and hope to find a future star there.
Morey has done a good job at setting up our team to "rebuild" constantly through draft picks and D-League. If Yao gets hurt this year we have expirings and assets to be able to continue to contend (I hope).
The most recent team rebuilding began with the trade of Tracy McGrady and is and will be an on going process as long as we have Morey as Manager. Our Manager is always looking to improve our team!
When Yao is done. We have enough pieces to build with right now though, if he goes down, we use our chips to assemble a better team, we may do the same if he does stay healthy.
sorry to hijack the thread, but what was that "rockets get okafor and paul" thread??? Was it a rookie mistake?
I personally think a team should never rebuild, but just retool - except if it is weighed down with terrible and long contracts for players who are atrocious - like 76ers.
I think that has made Morey one the smartest GM's, not in just in basketball, but in sports in general... I'm just going to compare Houston sports teams (sorry I don't know enough about the Dynamo to really make any argument, so don't think I don't care about them)... The Texans....it finally took a god awful amount of years to realize that David Carr was NOT the answer at QB...one of the reasons it's taken a while (of course others will say a dumb owner in McNair and/or coach in Capers/Kubiak) is b/c of Carr...when you waste your number one pick on a guy like Carr and it doesn't pan out, it can set your franchise back years...of course there were other moves in the past that hurt the team (no pass protection, no running game, but let's save that argument for a Texans forum!)...hate him or not, McNair is a good owner in that he's always looking for ways to improve the team through drafting and spending money (although some of those moves haven't worked out)...he preaches, along w/ Kubiak and Smith, that you build through the draft and through free agent signings...you can't put your eggs in one basket with regards to just one or two guys.... The Stros...I love the stros (except for the past few years of course!), but when they were having a great run, they did it at the expense of depleting the farm system when they started I believe in 97 when they made the move for Randy Johnson and up until about 2005 when they made moves for Petite, Clemens, and Beltran....while they were great those years, I always thought that the moves would be negative from a long term perspective.... Back to basketball...it's happened to Cavs, who put all their eggs in one basket with Lebron for this past summer, now that he's gone, Grant and Gilbert now have to rebuild from scratch which will more than likely take 3 plus years... That will be an issue for the Celtics in probabaly two or three years, when Garnett, Pierce, and Allen really start declining and they only have Rondo as their main piece....they will probably have to start from scratch.... The reason Morey is such a good GM is that he stores up value picks and free agent signings and risk/reward moves that not only help for the Rox current season, but for long term reasons as well....
We will know after this season. If Yao's foot gets hurt, he's done, and we rebuild. If he's able to make it this season, we will look for ways to improve the team in addition to resigning him.
I think Morey is between two stools right now -- working too much on rebuilding to genuinely contend, and working too much on contending to truely rebuild. But, I think we are one injury or one big trade away from shifting entirely to one stool or the other. If a legit star becomes available, we'll trade in our chips and go for the championship. If Yao gets injured again, we have to shift our window to compete back a few years. If we get a legit star and Yao gets injured, I think we're back between two stools again.
Most teams wait too long. Look at the Spurs with Tim Duncan. Do they have a legit chance to win another ring with him? If not, why prolong the inevitable?
It will be very difficult for the Rockets to rebuild because there is too much talent on the team. In order to successfully rebuild a team needs to get high lottery picks, preferably 2 or 3 in a row. Occasionally you see a team in the low lotto range get lucky and pick up a top 3 pick. But most of the time getting high lotto picks means being a terrible team over a number of years. This is an terrible process for a everybody associated with the team, from the owners to the fans. That's why so many teams prefer to tread water and be 1st round fodder than blow it up and start over. The only team I remember that chose to blow it up was Boston when Ainge got the job (ok the Jailblazer teams too but they HAD to blow that up). Ainge inherited a playoff team that had been to the East finals 2 years ago, decided that there was no way they'd be able to compete, and proceeded to blow it up. Things worked out eventually but it required lots of luck and lots of patience.
I agree regarding the Cavs and Celtics. Take the stars away and they immediately fall to the bottom 3rd of the league. So would you say that would happen to the Lakers? I'd say so. What about the Mavs or Spurs? I would say no. I think both those teams would become mediocre with a shot at making the playoffs, with the abilty to trade for another star if it becomes available. But they won't be anything but mediocre until they get that star player. So I honestly think the good GMs can continuously improve and stay competitive. The thing to question really is how to acquire that star player. The best shot seems to be to rebuild and get the high draft pick, but that doesn't always work. Portland struck out on the #1 pick with Oden, yet got gold with Roy. Perhaps the avenue to take depends on the situation your in.
Lets blow up the team and rebuild now. Morey should start by getting some young talent under rookie-scale contract (like Budinger, Taylor, Patterson, Hill, and even Brooks), and maybe some additional draft picks.
At the end of this season, too many unknown factors to do it now. At the end of the year you will have: A better understanding of the ceiling of the following players: 1. AB 2. CBud 3. Hill 4. Taylor 5. Ariza 6. Patterson Also, you will have a better understanding of Yao's situation, and whether his body/feet will hold up for future contracts. And, better knowledge of the upcomming CBA, which should have an effect on any future signings and team building. So, at the end of THIS season, you make the decision, making it now would be not very smart....too many unknown factors to be determined. DD
