Here's my take: Watch the guy shoot. His shots don't go left or right, they all miss long or short. Left or right problems are 'form' problems, like an elbow sticking out. Long/short problems are, in my experience, due to lack of proper strength in a 'J'. The power for Rice's jumper comes from his legs. He doesn't bend his legs much, however, when he shoots. He more or less explodes using a little bit of his quads, but mostly his calves. This is a problem because... As a player gets older, he tends to loose that 'explosiveness' that is so hard to quantify. Rice is going to need to either adjust his shot so he bends his legs more, or somehow manage to loose the lost explosiveness, perhaps by sheding some extra weight. The guy still has that really high release point, quick release, and picture-perfect form that never ruffles the net. All is not lost. Whether he can make the necessary adjustments, however, is in question. It will require some active search on his part. Attempting to 'let it work its self out' isn't going to work. Comments?
This has basically nothign to do with the post but here is a cool picture of Cato stuffing Rice that I found. It's from when Cato was a Blazer and Rice was a Laker.
You bring up some good points, Ottomaton. Sounds like Rice may have some conditioning issues. But then again, Rice seems like the type of player who needs touches early and often to find his range and get into his rhythm, which of course isn't happening often enough because the guards insist on dribbling the air out of the ball. He also seems better off starting with mid-range Js\post-ups and then moving out vs. bombing away from the 3pt line.
