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What's the going price for Dragic by the trade deadline?

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by Rox>Mavs, Dec 20, 2014.

  1. Rox>Mavs

    Rox>Mavs Member

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    Let me preface this thread by saying I’d love to have Dragic on our team but only for the right price. That said, I’ve been trying to think through what the going price is for him. Rondo just got traded for what amounts to a 2016 Mid 20’s 1st Rounder + 2016 2nd rounder + a nice big in Wright that might fit long term + young player in Crowder that fits their youth movement + Nelson as salary filler. The price point was likely pushed a little higher since there were multiple bidders (Dallas and Houston). Now that one less buyer is in the market for a veteran PG, I’m wondering what the cost is now for a guy like Dragic and if that price is something we’d be willing to pay.

    I. Does PHX have to trade one of their 3 PG’s and if so does it have to be Dragic?

    The safe assumption is yes they need to move one otherwise they’d have to lock $30-35 million into the PG position or likely lose Dragic in FA this summer. The other safe assumption is that of the 3 PG’s Dragic at this point is most likely to be moved since he is the highest flight risk and seems to fit long term the least.

    II. For the sake of discussion lets assume PHX is indeed looking to move Dragic at the trade deadline, what is the market rate for him?

    A. Teams who would view Dragic as a significant enough upgrade at their PG position to make a trade
    1) West: LAL, SAC, HOU
    2) East: NYK, ORL, MIA

    B. Teams Dragic is likely to resign with from that list

    1) HOU, NYK, LAL, SAC (All these teams have at least $14 million is cap space next summer assuming Brewer dropped his PO, which therefore increases the leverage against PHX)

    2) Of this list only HOU has the appeal of being a contender already and closest to competing for a championship, which reduces the risk of Dragic walking to the other 3 teams next summer should they trade for him (in addition to the fact that if we did trade for him we’d have his Bird rights).

    C. Of those teams that remain, what assets do those teams have to deal?

    1) NYK - No Picks to Offer, Shump, Hardaway

    2) LAL - HOU’s 2015 1st, 2nd round pick from LAC, Nick Young + JHill + Randle

    3) SAC - Their own 2017 1st round pick, McLemore, Derrick Williams


    III. Do the Rockets believe Dragic on this team is worth paying slightly more than the highest bidder from that list?

    A) Of those teams I think LAL have the most to give. They could offer our 1st round pick + Hill. I doubt they offer Young since LA see him as the one to take over for Kobe.

    B) The Rockets can easily trump their offer, but we only have to offer slightly more than the highest bidder (in this case LAL). The HOU pick will likely be in the early to mid 20’s. The NOP pick will likely be in the early to mid teens. The NOP pick by itself is far better than a package of a HOU 1st + JHill.

    C) Best package that PHX likely sees for Dragic that the Rockets can offer NOP + $5 Million in expiring salary (Terry fits the bill)

    IV. Question for Discussion: If you were the GM would you be willing to give up at least the NOP pick + Terry or $5 Million in player salary for Dragic?

    V. Question for Discussion: Can you think of other teams that would value Dragic as an upgrade + have the cap space to sign him in FA + are teams that Dragic wants to resign with + have more or better assets to deal than (NOP Pick + Terry)?

    VI. Question for Discussion: Is a NOP Pick + Terry valuable enough to PHX to trade Dragic or would they think it’s better from their perspective to hold onto him and hope their team can get it together after the All-Star break or another team offers a lot more for one of their other two PG’s? Statements that Dragic is making seems to indicate he's pushing to leave asap which reduces PHX leverage in this option.

    VII. Question for Discussion: If not what would you rather do with the NOP Pick?

    These are really more questions rather than assertions. I'm asking because I think others here will see more than I will about the thinking of other teams in the NBA and therefore will add depth to reality of the answers to these questions.

    TLDR Version

    If PHX is forced to move Dragic and given the market of potential buyers and what they are able to offer, I believe a package of the NOP pick + $5 million in salary beats every other offer out there.

    1) Are you willing to do that deal?

    2) What other teams do you think are willing to offer more than that deal that fit the bill for viable trade partners?

    3) If there aren’t any other competitors does PHX take that offer or let it ride into the summer and if that’s the case (we’d be bidding against PHX only) how much more would you be willing to give to PHX to get a deal done at the deadline?
     
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  2. Raven

    Raven Member

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    All it takes is one desperate (or scheming) GM to drive up the price. On the other hand, because Dragic is about to become a FA, getting fair value for him won't be possible unless he is agreeable to signing with his new team. Every player says they want to win, but we all know that some have other priorities, Bosh and Carmelo being two notable examples. I have no idea what Dragic wants to do, but if his goal is to get a max offer, and play on a legit championship contender, the Rockets would obviously be in the mix. But I'm not getting my hopes up on him or Millsap. Too many teams want those two players, and Morey hates to overpay.
     
  3. Haymitch

    Haymitch Custom Title
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    I'd happily be willing to do NOP 1st + Canaan + Brewer/KPap.

    (Assuming TJones' injury isn't season ending) I really want to keep both Jones and DMo. They compliment each other well and neither are (yet) in a contract position where we have to move one of them.

    A 3 guard rotation of Harden/Dragic/Bev would be arguably the best in the league. Add in a little Terry for veteran leadership. Ariza + Brewer/Papa at SF is solid. Then a big man rotation of Dwight/DMo/Jones with Black/Dorsey for occasional minutes could be good enough. Ideally we would add a veteran big man who can play (Wright??) but we can't get everything we want.
     
  4. Rox>Mavs

    Rox>Mavs Member

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    I'd do that deal to but my first question is would we even need to give that much? Who are we bidding against?
     
  5. A_3PO

    A_3PO Member

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    Because he will be unrestricted, Dragic has a big influence on who he's traded to. If he wants the Rockets to be his team, it will happen if Morey wants him long-term.
     
  6. XxTCNxX

    XxTCNxX Member

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  7. xtruroyaltyx

    xtruroyaltyx Member

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    Slash means or.
     
  8. mr. 13 in 33

    mr. 13 in 33 Member

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    Dragic was McHales favorite player
     
  9. xiki

    xiki Member

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    WWRMD? What would Ryan McDonough do? He would measure relationship with agent v OTT offer. If all are equals then the agent gets his way. If the OTT offer is with a team GD will to re-sign with then things get interesting 'inside'.
     
  10. Bay Rock

    Bay Rock Member

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    While I don't know the answer to your question, this article states that two 2nds was the going rate for an expiring at the deadline last year. Dragic is an expiring and there is no guarantee he will resign with the team that trades for him.

    http://www.cbssports.com/nba/writer/ken-berger/24904619/trade-buzz-the-suns-goran-dragic-dilemma

    "The highest price paid for an expiring contract at last year's trade deadline was two second-round picks, which the Sixers got from Cleveland for Spencer Hawes. By completing the deal before Dec. 19, Ainge also can re-package Brandan Wright, Jameer Nelson and/or Jae Crowder in another trade at the deadline if need be."
     
  11. roflmcwaffles

    roflmcwaffles Member

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    That NOP pick is gonna be 13 or 14, I'd gladly trade that for Dragic.

    Ideally anything other than our current starting 5 + Tjones, I'd happily give for Dragic.

    Would create a ridiculously good 3 guard rotation: Harden, Dragic, Beverley.

    Our only extra need after that would be a backup center, but once Tjones comes back I could easily see Dmo doing that role most of the time. Mix of Howard/Jones/Dmo come playoff time would be very solid.
     
  12. Nivos

    Nivos Member

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    To be honest I think the best deal for the Suns would be a straight up swap with Piston's Monero.
    Same contract situation and future salary demands and both teams will get exactly what they need.
    None the less I would love to see the dragon back in Houston, just hoping its not going to cost too much (they might want D-mo+NO pick+ 2nd rounder for Dragic)
     
  13. Corrosion

    Corrosion Member

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    I've been on the Dragic bandwagon for a while , think he'd be a great fit here.

    BUT now that Morey picked up Shved who I see as "Dragic Lite" I don't see the need to go out and use an asset on the position. Shved can ball and Dragic will be a FA and we'll be high on his list in the offseason as a FA destination.


    For this year , I'd rather upgrade the backup C/PF spot with a veteran option more reliable than Dorsey. That's the final piece to this roster .... and solving that piece of the puzzle gives this team an excellent shot at winning it all this year and leaves you with flexibility in the offseason.
     
  14. Rox>Mavs

    Rox>Mavs Member

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    Right now I don't see any team out there that can or is willing to beat NOP + expiring salary.

    NYK: are shump/hardaway worth more than an early teens pick?
    LAL: our pick and hill?

    That CBS article suggests ainge could put together a package that can certainly trump ours but would dragic stay for a rebuild with so many young players? Ainge would need to secure a star locked up on a contract for awhile before being about to convince a FA to sign or resign.

    What team beats an offer of just our NOP pick and fillers? It might take that one crazy GM to drive the price up even without any assurances of dragic resigning.
     
  15. Rox>Mavs

    Rox>Mavs Member

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    Why would PHX trade dragic for monroe when they could just get him in FA? They could get something for dragic while still get Monroe in the summer. Detroit has absolutely no leverage anymore having lost monroes bird rights.
     
  16. Rox>Mavs

    Rox>Mavs Member

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    If you hypothetically you only would have to give the nop pick you still have enough assets to get a solid backup C/PF.

    Jones/Capella/Canaan/Johnson/nyk 2nd are all there to make such an upgrade still.
     
  17. K-Low_4_Prez

    K-Low_4_Prez Member

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    Brewer, Terry, the NOP pick and Capela seems fair
     
  18. Kiddsir

    Kiddsir Member

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    Never get back with your ex wife.
     
  19. Rox>Mavs

    Rox>Mavs Member

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    Signed AB, Jlin, and Ariza
     

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