What's Changed & What Hasn't? A Brief Statistical Look

I think mainly, it has to do with Bonzi and Adelman's offensive game plans. Bonzi has been amazing thus far - imagine how good we would have been last year? Additionally, last year JVG had his players get back after a shot, emphasizing transition defense. Adelman, on the other hand, wants his players crashing the boards. This approach has worked wonders so far in our rebounding game.

 

Thanks, I was curious to see Adelman's impact on the offense (the rebounding is directly to Adelman's system of crashing the boards on a missed shot as opposed to JVG's "get back on D" approach).

I think our offense has dramatically improved if you take into account that we've already played some pretty solid teams with very good defenses. I believe the combined record of our opponents so far is 18-9.

 

very interesting, although is 5 games enough datapoints for this analysis? The offense has not had enough to time gel. Its a good sign that our defense hasnt gone anywhere.

 

Under JVG, whenever the Rockets hoisted up a shot everyone would get back to their defensive positions. With Adelman the transition defense isn't as emphasized leaving more players at the offensive glass to get the rebound. Having more depth certainly helps as well.

Another huge difference that you can't tell statistically is how much more fun Rockets games are this season. JVG was a brilliant defensive mind but aesthetically the game was boring. I believe hiring Adelman has been a success so far.

Good analysis, I like the efficiency numbers. They show that although more points have been scored against us, in terms of per 100 possessions we're just as good as last year.

 

I was going to start this thread last night - also notable is that the pace ranking remains about the same (22 or 21, i forget) relative to the rest of the league, despite a slight absolute increase 89.3 to 90.1, IIRC.

So much for up-tempo, Phoenix like.

I wonder if Les is going to call Adelman out on this.

 

Nice stats. But our role players except Battier are all shooting wide open shots worse than last year. Battier is exactly same as last year. Alston, James and Head are all shooting like crap so far.If they shoot open jumpers like last year, offensive effiency might be higher.

 

The offense and defense are about the same as last season. The rotation prevents some fan favorites from getting minutes. The team is winning at a good clip.

The more things change the more they stay the same.

Mike James' return and the emergence of an in shape Wells are what is different so far.

 

The increased rebounding is a statistical aberration from the Spurs game. Unless Bonzi consistently rebounds like he has been, look for our rebounding to decline. On the other hand, look for our offensive efficiency to slightly increase as players familiarize themselves with the system.

 

Thanks for the breakdown.

One reason why our offensive efficiency isn't much better than last year is because our 3-point shooting% is way down. Rafer is slumping with his shot, more than usual, and Luther has only hit 1 3-pointer all year. Only James and Battier have been decent, and James plays only 25 minutes a game and Battier just doesn't attempt a lot of shots, in general.

Rockets were one of the best 3-point shooting teams last year, attempting a bunch of them, and converting on a healthy 37.2%. This year, we're shooting 30.5% from beyond the arc. If we shot the same percentage as last year, while holding everything else the same, our Offensive Efficiency bumps up to 109.4. That improves our efficiency ranking from (currently) 14th best to 9th best. Last year, btw, we were also ranked 14th in offensive efficiency.

 

Something unquantifiable that I have noticed is how much better Yao looks in the 4th quarter. He rarely if ever shows signs of gassing (watch how he looks when other people are shooting free throws, if he is doubled over this is not good), and I'm willing to bet that it's a combination of his improved conditioning and the system not making him work as hard. Particularly, he doesn't have to back people down in the low post as much, and that stuff is extremely taxing, and also he doesn't have to come out to defend the outside shot at all anymore which makes him move less on defense. I think that's another reason for our improved rebounding, since Yao can just focus on keep the other team from scoring from close range and collecting the long-range misses.

Maybe over the course of the full season such a stylistic change will manifest itself in Yao's more consistent dominance, but for now it's a definite improvement. We're getting similar production as last year but with much less work for it, and more distributed work in that our bench is hefting a much larger load than previously. That's gotta help come playoff time.

 

Hitting the boards while gambling transition defense has proven to be a great choice. I remember McGrady backpeddling as soon as a shot was put up under JVG. It pissed me off, there was no attempt for a 2nd chance. In JVG's offense 2nd chances are a must! But he wouldn't take the risk, he wouldnt tradeoff transition points. Thats the difference in rebounding, our opponents are shooting a higher % yet we still win.

Are those stats from last year through 5 games or 82? If its 82 then its important to note the following... We have added 3 new major components to the offense, its early in the season (which means sloppy play), and we are working through a brand new offense. And the turnovers are the same! Which means they will go down. Thats the most surprising stat IMO.

 

Way way way too early for that kind of analysis. The offense we're playing right now is not really fully Adelman's offense yet. I'd wait till about 30 games before analyzing it like that.

 

Also, we've played some really good defensive teams the first five games..

 

We're really better in clutch. I mean for example we made a run against the Bucks in the last minutes. Battier hit game-winnin' 3, so we are a lot really a lot better in clutch.

Our 3-pt shoots aren't that good but as long as we win I don't care.

 

Early on, there's hardly any difference in our defensive rebounding%. That's a surprise.

 

Good post! I agree Yao and Mac look a lot fresher at the end of games now. I don't know where all the extra energy is coming from but Yao looked great scoring at will on Tim Duncan late in the fourth! Could he have done the same last year and Mac has been finishing better as well. I think Yao not having to fight in the post on every trip down the floor and chase smaller players out of the paint on pick and rolls is the difference for him and like you said he's staying in the paint and has position now to rebound misses.

 

The extra energy is due to not having to chase guards around the 3-pt line. His mpg are up significantly due to this.

Crashing the boards is not unique to Adelman. Rather conceding the offensive board is unique to Van Gundy.

 

u can't judge 6 games yet.

our offense is not in high gear yet. adelman is right now going back and forth b/t tmac being the main guy and yao being the main guy to experiment lineups and who fit best w/ our superstars.

when everyone is on the same page, then revisit this.

offensively, we will be better. we already see yao playing big minutes and show no signs of fatigue. tmac is now dunking like crazy. those 2 things alone should tell the improvements.

defensively we will be better too