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What will it take to make you seriously consider an EV?

Discussion in 'BBS Hangout' started by jiggyfly, Mar 31, 2021.

  1. BiGGieStuFF

    BiGGieStuFF Contributing Member

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    EXACTLY. every night! vs every 1.5 to 2 weeks. If I gave you the option of 2 phones where all the performance is the same except one has a small battery that you have to charge every day and one that you don't have to charge for nearly 7 days, which would you choose? These are compromises I'm slowly coming to terms with. Maybe you live out in the suburbs where gas stations are a good 5-10 minutes away because your subdivision is so huge but there are gas stations on every corner around me.

    But it comes down to the person. Do you want something you have to do for 1-2 minutes EVERY DAY or something that takes 5-10 minutes every 2 weeks.

    Maybe it's just me waving the red flag for others to see to make sure they don't get fooled like I did. The more information the better right? You're okay with everyday maintenance, I'm not. I tolerate it because there isn't a phone out there that can perform the way I want and last 2 days w/o charging. But for me to go backwards from pumping every 2 weeks vs charging everyday is just taking me a lot longer to adjust than I thought. So yes it is probably me, but I know for a fact I'm not the only way that feels this way about their EV cars. It's almost like a support group hahaha. we talk about all the things we don't like about the car and then we go.....but it's fast...and no oil changes. Hahhaha
     
  2. geeimsobored

    geeimsobored Contributing Member

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    I don't know how you didn't expect that you'd have to charge your car on a daily basis. And you also have to understand that your driving style/habits dictate your range.

    I personally have Chevrolet Volt which is a sort of middle ground vehicle. It can run as a full EV for 50 miles before it switches to the gas motor so I can do all of my daily commutes within EV while having the option to fallback onto the traditional engine. But I am still diligent with my charging and I really only fill up on gas once every 1.5 to 2 months because I do almost everything within the EV range. But if range anxiety is going to drive you nuts and you aren't diligent with charging (and you aren't optimizing your driving to extend your range), then an EV probably isn't your thing.
     
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  3. Sajan

    Sajan Member

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    I've only had an EV for 7 or 8 months so not a long term analysis here but I am pretty used to coming home and plugging in immediately.
    It's habit now.

    What I do appreciate is having enough range for daily use to never worry about "sh**, need to fill up gas.....I am running late to the office...or dinner".
    or "fk, do I fill up now or will I make it home and just fill up later.." or "damn it. gas prices went up again?"

    If you are the type to constantly drain everything to E and do one big fill up........ya....not for you.
     
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  4. CXbby

    CXbby Contributing Member

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    How the heck are you taking 1-2 minutes to plug in a charger? It’s literally 2 seconds. And all the battery maintenance is automatic, you set your max charge to 80% and never have to bother with it again. On a road trip you change it to 100%, which takes 10 seconds. How long does it take for you to plug in your phone every night?
     
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  5. CXbby

    CXbby Contributing Member

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    Used car prices are through the roof, if taking 2 seconds to plug in is causing anxiety you should sell it for a profit right now.
     
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  6. BiGGieStuFF

    BiGGieStuFF Contributing Member

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    Figured with 326 range, I wouldn't have to charge everyday. With the range I was expecting about once a week.

    Ok I can only charge to 90%. 293 is still pretty solid. Oh you'll probably have battery degradation in the first year. Up to 10%. It's not even been 1 year yet and my range is down 10% do 90% of 293 is now 264. But even with ultra conservative driving. Averaging 260wh, I'll maybe get 170 miles out of that 90%. So basically my real life range for the model Y is 50-60% of the estimated range of 326. I don't know about you but that's unacceptable.
     
  7. BiGGieStuFF

    BiGGieStuFF Contributing Member

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    I was going by the post where someone says it takes 2 minutes to hook it up. Maybe it was your post or someone else. My process is plug it in, wait for the screen to say it's charging then walk off. About 30 seconds in all. Is it convenient? Sure. But i have to think about it basically everyday and that's the issue. You become a slave to the process. I tell folks who are interested in EVs that yeah even though it says range is 326 you'll probably be plugging in every day or every other day. That turns them off almost immediately.

    It may be something that is mindless habit for you, but for me who was looking for a low maintenance car that I can just get in and go without much thought of maintenance, it's a tad disappointing. I've given up on my dream of a two to three day smartphone. Wireless charging makes it easier to tolerate. Maybe once they have that for the ev in the garage it'll be better.

    In the meantime i still think it's important for folks to know the annoyances of owning an EV along with the cool stuff. I plan on selling it once the EVs with VTL start coming out. At least then the car will have more features that help with the minor annoyances.
     
  8. CoolGuy

    CoolGuy Contributing Member

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    man brushing your teeth every day must be torture. Putting on clothes must be painful, picking out what to wear ::mind blown::

    haha j/k I’m with you owning ev prob has other problems but plugging in everyday shouldn’t stress you out. Maybe stop looking at the screen after plugging in and that would shave off 20sec. Also overtime plugging in should become second nature like putting on your seatbelt.
     
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  9. Sajan

    Sajan Member

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  10. Dr of Dunk

    Dr of Dunk Clutch Crew

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    That would be crazy range if it's "real". We'll see when it comes out. The other problem is you'll have to pay $140-$170k to get it. The "regualr" Lucid is rated at an estimated 400 miles or so (I don't think that's an EPA figure), which is still good, but that car still will run around $77-$95k. So this is still out of reach for the common man.

    I've been following Lucid for a while now, but kind of lost interest when I saw the pricing. lol. Love the layout of the interior and that 21-speaker system with Dolby Atmos, though. The problem is you'll have to pay up to get it as it's not standard.
     
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  11. BiGGieStuFF

    BiGGieStuFF Contributing Member

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    And I agree, over time it will get easier but it is a shock to the system when you are having to charge the car more often than you expected. I expect to have to plug in a nissan leaf or mini cooper EV everyday due to the range but a "326" mile range vehicle? I was not expecting that. I'm not sure why folks can't see why I'm disappointed. I'm not saying it's not easy just to plug in, but I'm saying it's an adjustment, and I'm sure most folks who bought long range EVs were not expecting that. Anyone who bought an EV car with a range of 300+ miles says they knew they were going to have to plug in everyday is probably a liar. It's a minor annoyance but it's an annoyance nonetheless. Just makes me feel like I'm driving a suped up golf cart. Speaking of golf carts, don't get me started on the build quality of Teslas.
     
  12. lpbman

    lpbman Member

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    Tesla* is worth more than BMW, Ford, GM, Stellantis (Fiat Dodge Chrysler Ram), Volkswagen Group, Honda, Daimler, Peugeot, Ferrari, Renault, Nissan, and Kia combined. Throw Toyota in there and market cap becomes like 750 billion for Tesla to 800 billion for everyone else.

    I know they carry debt and pension obligations that Tesla does not, but they have to have like, 100+ times the assets. Tesla isn't great at building cars. What they do have is some vertical integration for batteries and the supercharger network. 750 billion?

    Baffling.

    *Prices may not be completely accurate, I just went by what a google search for market cap said.
     
  13. CXbby

    CXbby Contributing Member

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    Absolute range is just a function of how much batteries you can stuff in there. Bunch of batteries = high price. The key figures of merit for mass adoption is a combination of range(miles) per kWh and price(cost) per kWh for the battery. In other words the technology to squeeze the most range out of every kWh for the lowest price, that’s the breakthrough direction, not how many batteries we can stuff in a car at all costs.
     
  14. robbie380

    robbie380 ლ(▀̿Ĺ̯▀̿ ̿ლ)
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    That's great, but you still have to charge it.
     
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  15. CXbby

    CXbby Contributing Member

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    The debt and pension is one aspect but let’s forget that for a moment. At the core of valuation is future cash flows, when applied to the present is a function of two variables, growth and profitability. The auto industry has no growth, it is a 100 year old market that is completely saturated which is why auto companies are the largest advertisers in the world, conquest sales are the only incremental sales that are left. The auto industry is also very low profit margin, most barely make anything on new car sales, the money is made in selling parts for service to dealers, and other chunk is the automaker’s financial arms. These companies are major financial entities which is why every financial crisis they are at the brink right along with the banks.

    With that in mind let’s just take GM as an example. They sell close to 10 million units a year at their peak, and generate about $2-3b in gaap net income in their best quarters. There’s no growth to this whatsoever and is fairly consistent, however in recessions it falls into heavy losses and is a crapshoot whether they survive the next one (they didn’t the last one).

    Tesla sold 200k units the last quarter (800k annual run rate). On that volume they generated $1.14b in gaap net income. Revenues were up 100% year over year and profits were up 1000%.

    I think the first question that pops out should be how are they generating half of GM’s profits on 1/10 of the volume. But before we even answer that we should bring up how automakers make money again, selling parts to dealers and financing. Tesla has a very small financing arm through third party. Tesla has no dealers to sell parts to since they sell direct to consumers, and they lose money on service because the vast majority of their fleet is still under warranty due to how new it is.

    So think about that for a second, net net they lose money on what traditional automakers make all their money on. Yet Tesla is already half as profitable as GM on 1/10 the volume, due to how wildly profitable the gross margin on their actual cars are. If you are asking how can that possibly be, once you figure out the answer then you realize why comparing Tsla valuation to legacy automakers was always a deadend.

    Reason is, manufacturing an EV is a lot more like manufacturing a PC or microchip than manufacturing a traditional ICE engine, transmission etc with thousands of parts. It is much cheaper and much less labor intensive. These are devices instead of heavy machinery. This is why the UAW is against EVs:

    https://edition.cnn.com/2021/09/08/business/biden-uaw-electric-vehicles-climate/index.html

    “The union has long been wary about the shift to electric vehicles and its implication for jobs, with electric vehicles taking about 30% less labor to assemble than traditional internal combustion engine vehicles, industry experts have told CNN.

    "Our concerns were what that impact would be for our membership, what those products would actually look like, [and] potential volumes around those products," UAW President Ray Curry told CNN in August, adding his union wanted assurances from the administration that EVs coming from the Detroit automakers would be built by union workers.”

    At the risk of oversimplifying it, it is like comparing amzn to Walmart or nflx to blockbuster. This is why every EV maker, nio/xpev/li/byddy/lcid etc trades at a heavy premium to any legacy ICE maker. Nio sells about 5000 cars a month and is roughly the same valuation as GM. Rivian has never sold a single car yet and is about to IPO for $80b, valuing it much more than GM. $0 revenue company. There’s obviously froth in the sector, but also not unfounded, they will be highly profitable compared to the old guard and have near unlimited growth prospects ahead of them, much like the dotcoms in the 90s(after some growing pains, the Internet turned out pretty useful and profitable for investors).

    This is all not to even mention, Tesla is doing this on basically two vehicle makes(3/Y), three if you count the model s that just started production again on low volume. As I previously mentioned, their service branch runs at a loss, but once their fleet matures and overall growth slows a bit, service will be a huge profit center - they own the dealers, sales, and gas stations(charge station). There’s still large economies of scale to be harnessed, from manufacturing efficiency to pricing you get from suppliers when your volume 10x. Their profit margin is no where near peaked. At scale and maturity we are looking at Aapl like margins, but in a total addressable market that is second largest in the economy after real estate, compared to phones. And aapl got to be the largest company in the world just selling phones. It’s hard to imagine a world where Tsla doesn’t take that crown one day.
     
    #335 CXbby, Sep 16, 2021
    Last edited: Sep 17, 2021
  16. lpbman

    lpbman Member

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    Uh no, making a car is making a car, the drivetrain perhaps is more like a device. The drivetrain being the only thing that Tesla is really good at from a "car" standpoint. Aside from the wow factor of electric motor performance and a well sorted battery pack, a Tesla is an average to below average car in driving dynamics, fit and finish, and usability (everything in the infotainment system saves $ but is an terribad experience as a driver) Also, is Tesla really putting in motors and batteries for way less than $5000, because that's what a typical drivetrain costs GM for a v8/10 speed?

    The second quarter 2021 is the first time they've ever made a profit without carbon credits from other manufacturers. Robots are a long, long way from building a car and I don' t think the trend of just not paying people what the other companies do (total compensation not hourly wage) will last forever. To me, either Tesla ends up paying what the other automakers do for labor, or it runs into the churn of constantly hiring and training new meat.... which might work for Amazon where you are putting things in a box but that isn't the same thing as putting together a high end interior that doesn't rattle and squeak. The summary being it seems to me Tesla will scale, legacy makers will catch up, and they'll be equivalent to legacy makers without the debt/assets.


    Lets say they sell 50 million cars in the next 10 years at the same profit per car as now, or roughly 50 times what they've done over the last 8 years... That's 186 billion in profit. Apple has that kind of cash in their couch cushions at only 3x the valuation. Do you think Tesla is going to sell 300 million cars before anyone catches up? Where is this unlimited growth because I don't see it? If you make a great car that is electric, why would you ever need to buy a new one... just swap in a new battery in 20 years. The market will saturate before the P/E makes sense.... Further (15+ years) into the future it'll be a race to the bottom as cars really do become devices robots and ai do all the work and all the profit dries up.



    Service as a profit center? I don't see how that's ever going to bring in money unless they're cannibalizing future sales by sticking a 2030 battery in a $10k 2015 model S with a bad battery. What is there to service unless you make a crappy car? It's still a car and things break, but I can't imagine it ever turning a profit. Much more likely to me they try to run service lean as they grow and alienate customers because Elon Musk. Post it on twitter if you want it fixed.


    I understand the arguments for the market cap, I just don't buy it... then again when was the last time the market was rational and not hopeful.
     
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  17. CXbby

    CXbby Contributing Member

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    The market doesn’t stay irrational for 10+ years (name me one instance), at some point people just need to accept that they were wrong (amzn, nflx)
     
    #337 CXbby, Sep 17, 2021
    Last edited: Sep 17, 2021
  18. Sajan

    Sajan Member

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    Yup it hasn't. So we will see in the next 9 years right?
    It's only been 1 year of being irrational.

    https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/TSLA/tesla/market-cap

    TSLA Market Cap

    MAY 2019 - 32 BILLION

    MAR 2020 - 78 BILLION

    FEB 2021 - 818 BILLION
     
  19. CXbby

    CXbby Contributing Member

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    When Tsla was trading at $32b it was selling 50k cars a year. If you want to compare it to gm or Ford, it has never been “rational” since the day it ipoed 10 years ago.
     
  20. Sajan

    Sajan Member

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    But there's the honeymoon period of going public.
    Look at Lucid, Rivian, 99% of the spacs...PLTR.........all have lofty valuations initially.....

    I know you are never going to agree so I am not going to sit here and waste my time arguing. But TSLA has to sell a **** ton of cars to justify being the 5th most valuable company in the US.
    They might. They might not. But just saying.....they better.
     

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