I am assuming we take Ming at #1, and then move toward drafting an SF unless there was a backup PF/C just too good to turn down at that position (Stoudamire). I see the draft breaking down like this, there could be some movement (I think Bordchardt goes higher just because of position, but no more than 1 movement--falling or rising or from each grouping through the top 16 picks). Unfortunately, I think more than likely at 15 we won't get a shot at Jeffires, Woods or Nene--any of whom along with Ming would make an exceptional draft day to me. Group A (1-2) Ming JW Group B (3-8) MD DG Wagner Butler Tskit Wilcox Group C (9-13) Nene Bordchardt J. Jeffries Woods Soudamire Group D (14-16) Haislip Nachbar Rush Group E (17-21; possibly move into Group D up to 14, but very doubtfully crack 13) Ely Welsh C Jeffries F. Williams Grizzard Ideally, I would like to do some package of the 15 and KT to the Heat for the #10 plus fodder or the same for Washingtons #11. I think such a move would help both teams overall team. Then we would likely get to pick our first or second choice from Tskit, Nene, Jeffries, Woods or even Nachbar if we thought he was rising fast. If we stay at #15 and Nachbar doesn't impress or is gone plus the other SF prospects that leaves the next 2 highest valued players in positions not much help to us. Then we might as well trade down to someone like NO, Orlando or Utah (17-19) and take Welsh, C. Jeffires, or Grizzard plus get a small future bone (conditional #1 or 2nd rounder). A good thing to me is that the teams drafting #12-#14 seem already loaded at SF (Clips with Odom, Miles, Magette; Milw with GR, TT; Indy with Bender, Artest, Croshere, etc.). We could take our chances at #15 that we can get Nachbar or perhaps if Woods really slips ( I can't see Jeffries slipping this far with his length and skill, Woods could because of questionmarks). Even getting to 13 (Milwalkee) for #15 and a small bone (future conditional #1 or 2nd rounder) might end up being worthwhile (ensure we get J. Jeffries--though Milw may want him as they have to have more 6'10" guys who can play for them, or Woods). Thoughts?????
Good stuff, Scar. A couple of things- I'm a fan of Jared Jeffries, and I think he's being underrated simply because he's a 'safe' pick; he's a player who does anything to help his team win, though he doesn't really excel at any one area, but he's superfluous to our roster, and it would be unfair to him and the power forwards already on this team to draft him. And he is not a 3, so don't try and sell him as a combo-forward, because he'd never work at small forward. He may develop the required skills over time, but he'll never fully be able to make the transition. If Antawn Jamison couldn't, Jared Jeffries won't be able to either. So who to draft? Honestly, I'm pretty averse to drafting an additional center with the 15th pick, since drafting Ming solidifies our center position for a long, long time. That being said, I'm sure they'd take Stoudemire if he was there. It's hard to pass up a center who's NBA-ready body-wise and has 10 times the tenacity of Collier and Cato. My choice, which is the popular one it would seem, is Bostjan Nachbar. If there's any truth to what we've heard of him, then he'd be an ideal fit, because he brings the one offensive capability that Shandon Anderson and Morris are completely inept at- taking a dribble or two towards the basket and nailing the midrange jumper. Maybe it's just my craving for a European player, but I really, really, really want a Hedo Turkoglu like player, and Nachbar seems to fit the bill. At 22, he's battle tested and ready to start now. Package Kenny to move up? There's too much risk in parting with Kenny.....at this point. If you're set on trading him, wait until the trading deadline. Some Eastern conference team in the midst of the playoff hunt will part with comparable talent at a different position or future considerations as ample compensation. With Griffin's progress an uncertainty and Mo Taylor's immediate impact impossible to gauge, the Rockets would be wise to hold on to Kenny as long as is necessary.
TPL, don't you think the main problem with Jamison at the 3 is lack of range and consistent outside shot, something Jeffries seems to have. There are not a lot of WC SFs that chew others up on quickness (Pierce, Carter, T-Mac type players)--the best guys in the West I think he could guard OK (Peja, Marion, Finley, Lewis, KG--well nobody can guard him, but a guy like Jeffries is as good as most to throw out there). I kind of like the idea of going big--a 7'6" center and 6'10" SF-- around our otherwise small-average size team. Just my opinion, but I think a complimentary bookend set of long reasonably athletic forwards like EG & Jeffries, or EG and Gooden (actually my third favorite guy in the draft but obviously not possible for us to draft if we take Ming) would be an interesting way to go. The Wolves and Nets made an awefully tough zones defense built around such an approach and they didn't have a 7'6" guy with skills in the middle. As long as the forwards can shoot and convert when open underneath the basket that should work with our offense because our guards can break down the defense. TPL I agree Nachbar is likely our guy we hope for if we stay at 15. But if he rises (taken before) and Woods is gone that puts us in a tough position. Just getting 2-4 slots higher will give as a lot more choices. What do you think of Woods BTW.
FYI, Jared Jeffries officially measured at 6'11" at the Chicago workouts which would be pretty tall for a SF. If he has the 'quickness' and 'outside shot' to play the 3 spot then he would be dynamite! Between measuring TALLER than listed and putting on the muscle he has put on in the last few months his stock has to be soaring! Chris
To me quickness is overblown as a quality for the 3 in the West. Rick Fox is an adequate 3 in the West for the most part. We don't face the T-Macs, Carters or Pierces but twice a year. To me for the Rockets the key thing is that they can knock down open shots created by guards and play adequate defense against guys like Peja and Marion. I think Jeffries can do this. I do agree he has to be rising and can't see someone like Milwalkee or Washington passing him over however.
Desert- Fox is a a very good defensive player. The Lakers also have Kobe to put on those T-Mac/Pierce types-Kobe doesn't deserve to be 1st team all defense like he was a year ago, but he can be a lock down defender when he needs to be. I like Jeffries a lot, but I think speed and quickness are still to be seen how they react on the NBA level. That's his only question mark, but it's one of the main things we need out of the position (ability to defend), and that could hurt him. tpl- With Griffin and Mo, I wouldn't fret on possibly moving KT to get one of the good SFs in this draft. Remember, we also have free agency-it wouldn't be that difficult to pick up a veteran 4/5 type to help Ming (since it looks like a done deal) and Griffin mature playing wise, but also cover some backup minutes. Off the top of my head, Scot Williams fits this, and there's always T-Rex Willis.
Scar, Zones are definitley something this team is going to be capable of implementing next season with Ming on the team, and Jeffries is the kind of player who would solidify that defense. He's got good hands, above average quickness and athleticism, and a nice finish around the rim. We could realistically make a zone-oriented scheme work with a player like Morris, but he'd obviously cancel out any advantage he gives us on the defensive end by being so hopeless on the offensive end. Do you think Jeffries is more proficient offensively than T-Mo? Hell yes he is, but not that much better....he's still rather limited, and at best, I think he's as good an overall shooter as Jamison. I don't think he defends or rebounds much better than Morris either. Basically, he doesn't bring anything new to the table. We can get whatever he might provide out of our current crop of power forwards. About Woods- I don't think he's a fit. It'd be one thing if he could shoot, but that doesn't appear to be the case, and his matador defense makes it even harder for me to justify giving up too much to get him. We need someone at small forward that can come in and play major minutes NOW. Nachbar's that man, and I would think at this point, considering Rudy's recent visit to see him and Treviso play, that the Rockets have a good idea of if they'd draft him or not....I hope they do. This team is sorely lacking in intelligent players with a feel for the game, which is an inherent trait of most Europeans. Nike, I agree, trading KT isn't that risky, but if we're going to package him, do it for an established veteran at small forward. Trading up really doesn't accomplish anything, since imo, the small forwards we'd really want (ie: Butler) would be out of our reach, and the market for available, established small forwards is pretty thin. That's why I think it's better to just stand pat and welcome any of the handful of qualified small forwards that we'll have our choice of at 15. PS- It'll be interesting to see who we pick up with the exception.
What about Prince!!! With Andy Katz Two weeks until draft night, individual workouts began again Wednesday. And the hottest names aren't Yao Ming, Jay Williams or Mike Dunleavy. Instead, Nikoloz Tskitishvilli is becoming another Pau Gasol in the draft by taking on a meteoric rise in the final few weeks. Like Gasol, who went No. 3 in 2001, Tskitishvilli is climbing and could go as high as No. 3 to the Warriors or more likely to the Grizzlies at No. 4. It doesn't matter that this is a 19-year-old who isn't the star for Benetton Treviso in Italy. Tskitishvilli isn't the only player ascending. Teams are starting to be real high on Indiana's Jared Jeffries, a player the Wizards covet at No. 11, but who won't get past the Suns at No. 9. Further down in the draft, Kentucky's Tayshaun Prince is on the move and the Rockets could be interested at No. 15.
Here is my Mock Draft up to 15 considering that there are no trades. 1. Houston-Yao Ming 2. Bulls-Jay William 3. Caron Butler 4. Memphis-Dunleavy 5. Dever-Drew Gooden 6. Cleveland-Nickoloz Tskitishvili 7. New York-Jered Jeffries 8. LA Clipps-Dajuan Wagner 9. Pheonix-Maybyner Hilario 10. Miami-Qyntel Woods 11. Wasington-Curtis Borchardt 12. La Clipps-Amare Stoudemire 13. Milwaukee-Chris Wilcox 14. Indiana-Jiri Welsch 15. Houston-Bostjan Nachbar
I'd like to see the rockets try to move up into group C. Not a fan of Jeffries...he seems too awkard to me. Call me wierd, but I think the Rockets are a little thin at guard and need a Shannon Anderson type of player. I'd like the rockets to get a SF out of the 15 pick or combining it with KT that could slide to the SG to keep Francis from having to instead of a SF that may slide to PF. Okay maybe not like him skillwise, but body wise. Francis and Mobley aren't getting the break done as well as they did when they teamed up with Shannon (I didn't like him in the half court). This imaginary player doesn't seem to exist around the 15 area. I would be intrigued if the Rockets could get a shot at Wagner by moving up. He'd be a backup for the Rockets, but would allow the Rockets offense to get back to running. He'd cut into the minutes of Francis ,Mobley, and moreso to Mooichie, but it would give the guards fresher legs especially if the rockets plan on using three guard. Stoudemire and Woods sound interesting from there descriptions. I do like guys that can shoot which I hear Woods might be weak at, but I really don't care as long as a player can put the ball in the basket at a good adjust FG% and P/FGA. I'm glad DG is listed as out of reach. Not that he wouldn't be able to help the Rockets, I just think others can fill more immediate needs. Borchadt....ugh. Nene, Tsk, Wilcox, Nachbar....no comment Don't like Haislip. Can't remeber him at all. Just remember thinking....he's overhyped and sux. Rush could be a very backup guard backup SF. Not really that strong a defender. Of the players I know, he's the one I'd want at #15.
tpl-That's assuming nobody slips a couple slots. With Qyntel Woods on the rise like he is, the likelihood of Butler or Tsika or Dunleavy slipping becomes just a little bit greater. Griffin wasn't supposed to be there at #7-when looking at stuff on Askrabic, the Sacramento Bee's mock from just 3 days before the draft had him going #1. You have to wait and see-Dunleavy's actions lately could turn teams off to him, or teams may be absolutely stupid and let a guy supposed to go #3 slip to #10, a la Paul Pierce. I'm interested in seeing what we do with the MCE as well-now that Ming seems to be a lock, I was thinking about Zhizhi, except he'd be a 3rd/4th string PF behind MoT, Griff, and if he's here, KT- he seems to want opportunity, and I don't think this is his place. We need toughness backing up at center, which he doesn't seem to provide. He seems like an excellent shooter, but the limited amount I've seen him, I doubt he could play 3 defensively. I suspect we won't use all of the MCE, unless we pursue Lewis (which is dependent on if we get a 3 via the draft)-try to get a veteran tough man like Scot Williams or Kevin Willis or even Cherokee Parks (is he a FA?). I'd like to see us pursue an extra vet PG like Mookie Blaylock who could teach Francis defense and passing. With all these players climbing, I have a hunch that Borchardt may be there at 15.
If there's a team out there wanting a player who'd be available with the #15, some team (Milwaukee?) could draft Nochbar for us, and get our #15 and second round draft pick. Just a possibility. Doc Rocket said we'd keep our second round pick and use it, but will whomever we're targeting be there? And do we even have the #38(?) And what is the status of Nochbar's Euro contract? Do we know yet?
I don't see any way Bordchardt falls to #15. Centers are too rare in the NBA and he is a solid center prospect with good fundamentals. The Clips might be better off (and save money) taking him and letting Kandi walk. That is even if the Knicks don't take him, and they really need a center. If we stay at #15 our best scenario is that Haislip and Rush or Welsh get picked ahead of us so we likely get the choice of Nachbar or a remaining player from group C (likely Woods or Stoudamire--though the latter is not really what we most need he would be hard to pass up). If Nachbar gets past Washington at 11 it is fairly likely he will be available at 15 barring a trade. IMO J Jeffries offensively is far superior to TMo. We are talking about the Big 10 player of the year who is known for his offense and can shoot and score consistently (TMo's major limitation). His questionmarks are with defense--but I'd certainly rather put him up against NBA SFs before I would Dunleavy or from what we hear about Woods. My point with Fox is not that he isn't a good defender--it is that you can be a good defender without exceptional quickness. Lenth and strength is probably more important to guarding most of the best WC SFs (Peja, Marion, KG, maybe Dirk at times) than outright quickness. Nonetheless I am think the odds that Jeffries is on board at 15 even with defensive questions is next to nothing at this point. IMO the guy that could fall is Butler. I could seem him falling to 9 or 10 if some combination (2-3 players) of Bordchart, Jeffries, Nene and/or Tiski go before him. That could happen as teams look for size and if the international pair wow the scouts.
Joe Joe, I understand where you're coming from about the lack of G depth. Interesting, everyone knows about the trio, but after them there's only Torres. A true swingman, a 2/3, could be an even better fit than a true SF, which is why Woods should be considered. Yes, he's raw, but he's versatile and skilled, and could be worth the risk. Rush is attractive for the same reason, but he's more of a SG, and Grizzard, another swingman, could've been a prime candidate before his injury. Can Nachbar provide some depth at SG as well as SF?
Nike & Scar, I agree, Butler is a likely candidate to fall despite the glowing reports we've heard about him from almost everybody. Chicago ( Hassell, Rose, Robinson), Golden State (Jamison, Richardson), Memphis (Dickerson, Battier).....I'm almost positive none of these teams will pick him. So that leaves Denver and Cleveland as the only hurdles to clear before he'd drop into a position in which it was possible for us to trade for him, since NY (Sprewell and Houston), LAC(Maggette, Odom, Richardson), and Phoenix (Marion, Hardaway, Johnson) all will likely go in different directions. So what's the likelihood of the Nuggets or Cavs picking him? Hard to tell. Posey's the only sg/sf Denver has in their long term plans, but Kiki being a new GM and needing to make a splash, I really see him going for Tsiki. Then there's Cleveland.......who I'm hoping go for Wagner, to see if he and Andre Miller can click together. The only problem there is the recent emergence of Ricky Davis, to go along with their plethora of wingmen (Person, Murray), which may dissuade them away from a Wagner in favor of a Wilcox....we'd win either way though. If something like the above played out, we'd be in a damn fine position to make a tempting offer to Washington or Miami for the services of Butler, which would have me absolutely ecstatic. All. Problems. Solved.
tpl-I think Butler will go 4-5-6, or will be there at 10. Chicago won't take him over JWill at 2, Golden State has Richardson at the 2, and want either a PF, or a tall SF (Tsika?) to complement Jamison. Memphis may take him and have Butler-Battier-Gasol as the 2-3-4, but more likely would take Dunleavy if he's there. I'd peg him at 5 to Denver, but maybe they'd prefer a Wagner/Posey 2/3? Or Gooden/Wilcox could sneak into the top 5 with Ming, Williams, Dunleavy, Tsika. I wouldn't worry too much on Butler going to Cleveland- I see them either making an explosive Miller/Wagner backcourt, or picking up a PF like Gooden or Wilcox. New York would take the remaining PF, and then Hilario to LAC at 8. What does Phoenix do at 9? Probably trade with someone that wants Butler, or takes Jeffries (or Stoudemire?). The hard part would be convincing Miami to trade Butler if he's there...It's doubtful all of this happens, but it was also doubtful we'd land the top pick. Live-Butler can be a 2/3. With Moochie logging lots of minutes along with Francis and Mobley, I don't think you need much of a backup 2...keep Torres, or pickup someone similar for the 1 mill exception. Backup 2s are fairly plentiful, look how long Jim Jackson stayed unsigned this past offseason. Grizzard could be there at 38 because of his injury, or guys like Jacobsen or Savovic. There's also possibilities of 1/2 type players. Desert-Borchardt SHOULD go lottery. Woods should've gone top 15. Doesn't mean he will. He has lots working against him-prior injury problems for big men are dangerous. He also has the great American white big man stereotype, and he's on the fence, so he hasn't shown his skills nearly as much as he should have by now. If you're New York, do you take Borchardt over Wilcox, Gooden, or Hilario? NY fans would blow a fuse if Layden took Borchardt over one of those 3, or Dejuan Wagner. Layden's job is insecure right now. If we came out of the draft using 1, KT, 15 for Ming and Butler, I would be ecstatic. In 2 years, that's building a front line from scratch, with Griffin last year, and then Ming/Butler. Talk about serious dreamcasting.
Nike--Woods fell mainly because of his ethic and attitude, the major back trouble fed into it even more--I have not heard those kinds of questions for Bordchart. Bordchart has most of the best qualities of Mihm and Przybilla--and what did they go like in the 7-8-9 range. I can't see anyway Bordchart would get by the Clips at 12 (Kandi insurance) or Milw (in deperate need of a guy over 6'9" with any offensive skill whatsoever) at 13. Ming and Butler would be a stunning draft. Let us say Butler somehow fell to 9. Phx has Marion, JJ, and Hardaway--they won't take Butler for themselves I don't think, so let us say they open up the bidding instead of taking Nene, Tiski, Jeffries, Wilcox or Bordchart. What does it take to land Butler? I am afraid KT and #15 might not be enough. We can't offer next years #1. What else do we have? They could try to make us eat one of their bad contracts (Bo, Gugs) but they have to to eat one of ours (Rice, MoT, Cato). KT, Cato & #15 for Bo and #9? If I am Phx that looks OK to me but I still think I might be able to do better.
I'm a Butler guy, if for nothing else other than to hear Calvin and Bill say "the Butler did it." Seriously, I think he could be a starter in this league for years. It's safe to assume that in order to get Butler, we'd have to part with more value than No. 15, KT, MT or Rice. Would you guys be willing to trade Griffin for Butler - straight up. I'm not sure because, to women and in the NBA, size matters. Butler would help us in 2002 more than Griffin. Our 4's are significantly better than our 3's, and our overall defense is lousy. Butler looks to be every bit as good as a prospect as Griffin in the long term. Ming will help our defense. Griffin is one of our better defenders, but not as a 3. We need to play him at 4 to block shots. I could see Butler evolving as a Elie type defender with superior athleticism. Butler would look awfully good with Francis, Mobley, MT/KT and Ming/Cato. Finally, we shouldn't kid ourselves into thinking that T. Morris is going to develop into a capable offensive player or a starter in this league. I like the guy, but the Astros need his knuckleball more than the Rockets. I'd be pleased if he turned into a good defense/rebounder type of a role player. Whoever we take after Ming, we should be certain that it's not just another body to plug in at the 3 spot. We need quality. We already have quantity.
Dream all you want , but Butler will cost a lot more than #15 and KT. I think he is the #4 player in the draft. I know I don't get to see enough film to really know but my feeling is that if Stoudemire is there at #15 you take him. Remember , we won't have a first round pick next year. We can take the manchild now, stash him and train him for a year; and we have the equivelent of a lotto pick by trainig camp 2003. My guess is however, the brain trust will be looking for some defensive help. We've got the firepower , especially if Rice and Mo-T are healthy but almost every player on our roster in below average defensively. I would not be surprised to see the Rockets take Chris Jeffries.
