I agree with your star asessments. Your stud designations seem a bit premature. Most of those guys have had barely 1 or 2 seasons of even contributing significantly. DeShawn Stevenson is in the Utah rotation, I believe. Here's a few others off the top of my head: Darryl Dawkins (Stud?) Bill Willoughby (ex-Rocket) Moses Malone (Star) Connie Hawkins (Star) ------------------ Time is a great teacher-- only problem is it kills all its pupils. PowerbizOnline.com
Agreed. But something to be wary of is that when more and more players start coming out from high school, there are obviously going to be some duds. Korleone Young was one of them. He got drafted in the second round by Detroit but he didn't last long. The reason as I saw it was that Young was a 6'6" inside player that physically overpowered his peers, something he wasn't able to do two levels up, obviously. But when you have a Garnett, who was an athletic 7 footer, or Kobe, a 6'7" swing man who could handle the ball, or Lewis who could shoot from the outside at 6'10", the situation is different. You have to look at the skills that some of these players have that you know will translate over into the NBA, not just what they are able to do against other slow, unathletic high school guys, like I was (I don't care what you say Adam Hall, that block was clean! and to think they called a flagrant foul) Also, we need to remember that McGrady took a while to come into his own...his first two years in Toronto it was a struggle to just get off the bench, and when he did play he wasn't all that impressive. But he did get drafted at #8 for a reason, and I guess now we're all seeing why. I think the main thing to watch out for is that teams don't get fooled into taking a high schooler, just for the sake of potential, if he isn't one of those premier players that you know will have something going for him at the next level, or in the case of Darius Miles, just freakishly athletic. ------------------ P.S. This is what part of the alphabet would look like if Q and R were eliminated.
Yeah, I remember the days when everybody piled McGrady in the "Bust" column. Garnett, Kobe, McGady, Lewis... all of these guys were in the league almost a full two to three seasons doing jack before really contributing. Occasional flashes of brilliance, but otherwise hanging out on the bench and getting 5-10 mins a game. But damn, look at them now.
I need some people with knowledge of draft history to help me out here. The only high-school guys who jumped to the NBA that I can remember are all stars and studs. But it's only natural that I don't remember the busts. Here are the names I can remember- Stars: Kemp Garnett Kobe Mcgrady Studs: Miles Rashard Lewis Al Harrington Jon Bender Busts: Leon Smith (only one I can remember- help me out here.) What's happened with DeShawn Stevenson anyway? Just from my preliminary ramblings, looks like high school players are a long term investment, but definitely worth a gamble.
Nolen, Why do you consider Bender a stud? Has he done anything? Harrington really came on this season; I was impressed. How about Jermaine O'Neil? Funny all 3 are on the same team. ------------------ Yugo grills, Yugo mills, Check out the oil my Yugo spills...
I think the Jazz are taking it easu with Stevenson. He has all the tools to be a very good player - can shoot, can defend and has GREAT court vision. ------------------
Nolen, KG produced pretty much right on the scene. Decent rookie season, and great sophomore outing. Stevensen will probably turn out to be a good player in the league. But it will take time(As in years) and Minutes(As in during the game) for it to happen. ------------------ Never Underestimate the Heart of a Champion
Stevenson tore up the summer leagues if I remember correctly and was in the dunk contest. I don't think that he has really gotten off the bench in Utah behind Starks, Louis, Russell,etc. ------------------ Calvin Murphy for President!
Assume that all players who go to the NBA are on the 'top 50' lists. It is important to recognise that a percentage of these top 50 players that go to college end up being only 'average' and end up never playing in the NBA. I wonder, therefore, if the percentage of high school to NBA 'busts' is much worse than the percentage of high school to college players who turn out average. In defense of college, however, it generaly takes most of the first contract for high school players to develop, at which point they are free agents. The better question might be, how many of the high school players drafted reep significant returns for the team who drafted them. For example, Tracy McGrady is a great player. Toronto, however, only recieved one year of decent production from McGrady as well as a future conditional draft pick. Not a great deal, as far as I'm concerned. Also, it seems to me based on anticdotal evidence that high school players seem to be a little more volatile/selfish on average than the average draft pick. So, while most high school players have turned into really good players, when the final verdict is in on Bender, Harrington, Stephenson, and Miles will it turn out that these players tend to be good picks for the team which drafts them? ------------------ [This message has been edited by Ottomaton (edited April 15, 2001).]
Great point about most of these high school players finding great success, but often taking 3 years or more reaching it, and often with other teams. Obviously, McGrady and the PAcers youngsters are the optimal examples. Thus far, it seems there have been more studs than duds, but as Prempeh said, this established pattern of success will only open the window for many more HS players to declare, and enhancing the chance of duds. Personally, i think most coaches have to think of drafting HS players as a double edged sword. Sure, many of these players have physical talents and abilities that will make them complete forces to be wreckoned with in the future of the NBA. However, with the "win now" mentality of the NBA, can many coaches take these players and expect to have success immediately enough to save their own jobs? Likewise, will the teams have enough success, quickly enough, to deter the player from leaving via free agency just as he's starting to come into his own as an NBA star? Drafting HS players may be good for the franchise in the long run, but the current head coach may not be around to see it. If he is, the player might hit the road just as he's starting to live up to his lottery status. ------------------ "I think what I'm supposed to say is, 'I'm out.'"
I think that the high percentage of high schoolers who turn out well in the NBA can be attributed to the fact that people are hesitant to draft high schoolers. Only the very best are drafted, so of course the success rate is going to be high. As more high school kids come out, the success rate will drop, and should level out somewhere around college players, with the lack of experience made up for by the greater athleticism that is typical of those who make the jump. ------------------ "Of course, thats just my opinion, I could be wrong" -- Dennis Miller
Kemp didn't jump straight from high school. He went to some junior college(Trinity?) for a year, but didn't play ball there before jumping to the NBA. ------------------
What percent of high school players drafted help the team that drafts them. Was Kobe a prearranged trade or a Francis type trade? I'd say Bender was for all purposes drafted by Indiana. McGrady helped Tor, but he's in O now. Kemp...did great early then got them Baker. Hopefully the NBA will allow a team to place a high schooler in the developmental league for two years, before they hit the rookie salary scale. ------------------
It's ironic how Deshawn would probably say: Just from the courts preliminary precedings, unless you treat high school girls like a longterm investment, they definitely are not worth the gamble.
As far as making a list of studs and duds, some research should give you an exhaustive list. Draft results will usually tell you the school each player came from if you are willing to look. Kemp was definitely worth it for Seattle. I believe the Bryant trade was prearranged: Charlotte was picking for LA. O'Neal was only a waste for Portland because Trader Bob is an idiot. They could have kept him and played him. They probably would have gotten more production than they did from Dale Davis. ------------------ RealGM Gafford Art Artisan Cakes
Kemp wasn't really a highschooler, even though he was of highschool age when he entered the draft, like Eddie Griffin and Stephen Hunter are. Kemp went to a Texas junior college for a while, but was kicked out for stealing. Not that it really matters.I'm just being picky ------------------
