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What is the cost to trade for an Ace pitcher?

Discussion in 'Houston Astros' started by Rileydog, Aug 21, 2016.

  1. Progs

    Progs Member

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    Maybe Sale & Ross ?!
     
  2. Tomstro

    Tomstro Member

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    Fair enough. Yet worth pointing out what that trade actually did for us.
     
  3. Tomstro

    Tomstro Member

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    Er i mean aquisition
     
  4. Snake Diggit

    Snake Diggit Member

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    This is my rough guess for what prices will look like this winter:

    A true ace with multiple years of control: 1 top 20 prospect, 3 top 100 prospects, and a fringe/complimentary big league piece. I.e, Chris Sale to Astros for Bregman, Musgrove, Fisher, Abreu, and P. Tucker.

    A fringe ace with multiple years of control but questions or a true ace rental: 1 top 50 prospect, 2 top 100 prospects, and a complimentary big league piece. I.e., Chris Archer to Astros for Martes, K Tucker, Paulino, and Fiers.

    I think Houston will be involved, but won't be surprised if they stand pat and roll with what they've got for SP, maybe adding a 2nd tier FA for depth. If they could be sure that 2-3 of Musgrove, Martes, Paulino, and Feliz would hit their ceilings, that is probably the best way to go. That said, I hope they make a move.
     
  5. HeyDude

    HeyDude Contributing Member

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    While the pitching FA class is terrible, there are some interesting batters. Might be more fruitful to trade for a stud #1 pitcher (Bregman / Martes for Sale?), then go after a power hitter through FA (M. Trumbo? Steal Ian Desmond? Edwin Encarnacion?) and resign Valbuena. It's all about balancing out the roster.

    Lineup of Springer, Valbuena, Altuve, Correa, Trumbo, Yuli, Reed, Hernandez, Castro. Pitching lineup of Sale, McCullers, Keichel, Musgrove.
     
  6. Nimo

    Nimo Member
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    Are we certain an ace is the biggest need?
     
  7. Buck Turgidson

    Buck Turgidson Mineshaft Enthusiast

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    This thread went downhill fast and is still picking up steam.
     
  8. No Worries

    No Worries Contributing Member

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    I am more concerned with the hot and cold offense.
     
  9. Progs

    Progs Member

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    There is nothing we can do about that other than fire the hitting coach.
     
  10. Snake Diggit

    Snake Diggit Member

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    Very productive comment. Thanks for adding to the discussion. You are a true asset to this site.
     
  11. jim1961

    jim1961 Member

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    Sure about that?
     
  12. Buck Turgidson

    Buck Turgidson Mineshaft Enthusiast

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    I apologize, I will hone my theoretical thoughts to a razor's edge next time.

    Honestly, I thought we were still talking about Drawback and Swindle.
     
  13. Nimo

    Nimo Member
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    Or...maybe...I don't know... perhaps trade for or sign a more consistent hitter :rolleyes:
     
  14. bobrek

    bobrek Person, woman, man, camera, TV
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    You apparently don't get it. When the offense is cold, it's the fault of coaching. When the offense is hot, it's the fault of the coaching because they should always be hot.

    When the bullpen fails, it's the fault of Hinch. When the bullpen succeeds it's in spite of Hinch.

    When he pulls out Gurriel, he is babying him (no chance he has any sort of physical ailment and they are taking reasonable precautions).

    When Correa was hitting poorly, it is the fault of the coach. When he turned it around it is all Correa. Same with Springer.

    When Bregman was held in the minors a bit too long, it was stupid Luhnow. Then when he came up and went 2-36 they were stupid for not sending him back down. Then when he continues to play and bat second and starts hitting it is because Hinch "had no choice".

    I could go on, but I should probably be planking instead.
     
  15. Buck Turgidson

    Buck Turgidson Mineshaft Enthusiast

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    So it's game ****ing on now, right?
     
  16. finsraider

    finsraider Member

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    I don't like the idea of throwing away a lot of prospects for one arm. Seems like an unnecessary bet to make when you have club control over SEVERAL potential high level players and we don't have a timing issue right now.

    If we had to win right now (2-3 year window), then I'd be more open to it, but our window is more like 5-6 years.
     
  17. xcrunner51

    xcrunner51 Contributing Member

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    We have more of a window than people think. We have Altuve for three more seasons. Keuchel is a free agent next off season. I'm all for continuing to bring up young talent but the Astros have to continue to look to the present after last years unexpected playoff appearance.
     
  18. snowconeman22

    snowconeman22 Member

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    I'm not even going to consider if we should . I'll just try to guess at the price .

    There are a few variables at play here , chief among them years of club control left and health .

    If we trade for an ace over the winter it will likely cost more than he would over the trade deadline season. Despite the market being more active during the season, getting a whole season value is worth much more than a half season and therefore will cost more .

    A few years ago we traded for Kazmir who was having a very good season at the time . However, due to his injury history and impending free agency he didn't cost as much as he could have if without the prior two variables mentioned

    Each of the guys mentioned so far will all have a different price and it may be worth it to go after them , however I think it will be much better to go after them during the season as we get closer to seeing how we perform next season .

    For a true top of the like pitcher who doesn't have injury issues and has been performing up to his potential during the season the cost will be great . A guy like Sale is gonna cost a **** ton .

    The rest of the Aces on big contracts may not cost as much , and typically we could give up for prospects for the current team to take on salary . ( if that was an issue)

    The guys that are still young and unproven but might turn into 1-2 are still prohibitively expensive because of their club control . Remember the haul we got for cosart ? Remember many people HERE didn't like that trade . It hasn't worked out for Miami and it may not work out for us .

    Because the cost of these players is so great , I would really like to see us wait for what the free agent market does , and wait until we start playing a bunch of games next year .
     
  19. Snake Diggit

    Snake Diggit Member

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    Astros free agent schedule:
    2016: Castro, Valbuena, Rasmus, Fister
    2017: Neshek, Gregerson
    2018: Gattis, Marwin, Keuchel, Sipp
    2019: Altuve, McHugh, Fiers, Harris
    2020: Gurriel, Springer, Marisnick, Giles

    Looking at their "core" players:

    C Gattis 2018
    1B Reed 2022
    2B Altuve 2019
    SS Correa 2021
    3B Bregman 2022
    RF Springer 2020
    CF Marisnick 2020
    LF TBD
    DH Gurriel 2020
    SP1 Keuchel 2018
    SP2 McCullers 2021
    SP3 McHugh 2019
    SP4 Musgrove 2022
    SP5 Fiers 2019
    RP Giles 2020
    RP Gregerson 2017
    RP Harris 2019

    So the current core starts to expire after 2 more seasons. They can probably lose Keuchel and still be a really good team, even a contender, but once Altuve or Correa leaves, it's over.
     
  20. bobrek

    bobrek Person, woman, man, camera, TV
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    Considering no one knows what acquistions will be made and what players will be used to make them and how the current crop of minor leaguers perform, that is kind of a fatalistic statement. If Luhnow has gone to all the trouble to build the entire system and it will all collapse if Altuve or Correa walks, then he will go down as an utter failure.
     

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