I've put together current W/L Charts for the current 7-11 seeds in the Western Conference. Individual charts follow: NOTES: Blue Line: W/L differential = Wins - Losses Red Line: W/L differenetial 7 game moving avg trend Purple line: strength of schedule (actual PCT's) Black line: strength of schedule trend Green line: .500 Opp Pct line for reference WC Seeds 7-11 2006 Team W/L Trends & Strength of Schedule Things to notice: The Rockets and the Kings have steep upward travelling trends indicative of their resurgent play. I wasn't surprised by the Jazz but the Laker trend lines did surprise me. Both the Jazz & the Lakers have overall flatter lines compared to Rockets and the Kings. The flatter lines mean they are overall playing around .500 ball. The Hornets looked like around the 41 game mark to start to take-off but have imploded of late. It's interesting to note that their surge was in a particularly weak part of their schedule. What all this means is the that the Rockets and the Kings have been playing better and winning more compared to the other WC teams in the 7-11 bracket. If the trended history is of any indicator then there's still definitely that possibility for the Rockets to make the 7th or 8th seed today's loss to the Spurs for the Rockets not-withstanding. I find that this is positive considering that the Rockets for most of the run from the 43 game mark on did it with a less than 100% TMac. The question is the Rockets (and the Kings) will be able to sustain their performance AND if it will be enough to overtake the Lakers and Hornets particularly. Here are two other graphs to take a look at that: Combined W/L Differentials WC Seeds 7-11 2006 This is a graph that combines the 7-11 charts above. We can see just how far the Rockets need to make up to overtake the number 7th or 8th seeds in the West. It's sobering what this means. Keep in mind that the graph is magnifying the differential of Wins to Losses vs. actual games behind a particular team. So what happens if we try and project what a possible outcome maybe in the last 20 games of the season? There are a lot of different ways that can be done and a lot of different answers of what that might mean from the Rockets making it in to the Rockets not making it. I decided to try a take a stab at one of the possible ways of forecasting the next 20 games by using the records for the previous 19 games to make a projection. Forecasted WC 7-11 Seeds Using Previous 19 Game Records The results would be a dogfight but it would put the Kings tied or just above the Rockets in 7th seed with the Rockets in the 8th seed. For this future to come about for the 5 teams in question the record for the last 20 games would need to be: Rockets: 15-5 (.750 pct) (.737 previous 19) (14-6 might do it depending on the Hornets) Jazz: 9-11 (.450 pct) (.474 previous 19) Kings: 13-7 (.650 pct) (.684 previous 19) Hornets: 11-9 (.550 pct) (.579 previous 19) Lakers: 10-10 (.500 pct) (.474 previous 19) Of course there could be a lot different outcomes as well. Anyway, I thought that it was a good reminder that we shouldn't give up yet because it ain't over until the fat lady sings.
Wow! Thanks for putting this all together. Looks like the Rocks on on the right track, but late getting on it. And that doesn't take into account losing Tracy (and possibly Wesley??), of course. The Rockets walk a fine line. They need to win at a very high percentage, and hope for luck. I'm still thinking we'll have both.
Thanks. Given the current circumstances, I still think the Rockets have the least chance of making it to the playoffs. If we can win a high percentage of the upcoming games against some good teams, then I'd feel more confident.
No offense, because I appreciate all those graphs and effort you put into it, but I don't think they'll really show the struggle we're going to go through. The only thing I need is a stat, and that stat is our record without T-Mac. It's kind of hard to win games without T-Mac, I gather. Seeing as we won't have him for much (if not all) of the remaining regular season, this is going to be tough. That, and, we have an extremely tough schedule remaining for us to complete. That's not to mention our next 6 or so games are going to be near impossible without T-Mac. Once we're through that stretch I think everyone will really see where we stand for the playoffs. Anyways, appreciate the graphs. Thanks. Go Rockets, hope Yao can lead us and our role players step up. Get better, T-Mac.
Great work once again Tango, and i feel these charts would hold true, except they dont take into account that we're going to play without Tmac every night now. The latest trends which show a much improved Rockets squad are mostly with our team very healthy (that is, Tmac and Yao both playing together) and although we all had high hopes for the finish of this season, we now must take into account that we wont have Tmac for atleast 3-5 weeks, and thats being optimistic. By the time Tmac returns, if at all, the fate of this season will have been decided for the most part, thanks to our gruesome upcoming schedule.
Have you guys not been watching the last 20 games? Give the Rockets some credit. They've been playing with an injured TMac and have been able to make out with a .737 winning pct. That's about a 3 wins for every 1 loss record. And that's about the record we need to make 15-5 including today's game. Heck, without TMac we were able to play the defending NBA champs and arguably the best team in the NBA right now in their home and actually had a chance to steal one. Let's look at the Rockets schedule: Code: Team Pct Spurs 0.774 Nets 0.533 Mavs 0.787 Spurs 0.774 Clippers 0.583 Mavs 0.787 Hornets 0.508 Cavaliers 0.571 Sonics 0.387 Wizards 0.508 Lakers 0.524 Sonics 0.387 Blazers 0.311 Warriors 0.413 Kings 0.500 Jazz 0.492 Twolves 0.426 Grizz 0.548 Nuggets 0.556 Spurs 0.774 Certainly I don't like our chances without TMac but it's not over yet. Looking at the schedule we need to be 15-5 or 14-6 (including today's game). 15-5 is achievable if we lose all 5 of our games against the Spurs & the Mavs but beat the rest.
sweet charts! now that wesley and his 0.001 shooting percentage is out, our backcourt finally starts hitting their shots. head, alston, and brunson catch fire. yao ming continues his monstrous ways. t-mac is back in 2 weeks (remember, he's out "up to 3 weeks"), we go on a tear and boom! we squeak into the playoffs. the hornets finally realize that they have no business playing so well and continue their downward trend (so colorfully and statistically lllustrated by your graphs) and drop out! meanwhile the jazz and lakers keep playing .500 or below ball and are edged out by the rising kings and the unstoppable and surging rockets!
Tango, nice work. I love this stuff. I think, though, that your last simple table sums it up the best: Scenario to make the playoffs: Rockets: 15-5 (.750 pct) (.737 previous 19) (14-6 might do it depending on the Hornets) Jazz: 9-11 (.450 pct) (.474 previous 19) Kings: 13-7 (.650 pct) (.684 previous 19) Hornets: 11-9 (.550 pct) (.579 previous 19) Lakers: 10-10 (.500 pct) (.474 previous 19) This actually gives me some hope. It says that even if the other teams don't collapse, but instead play at the clip they've been playing, we still have a chance if we go 15-5. But that's a big If.
Well, hope is fading after the loss to the Nets. Our role players have come down to earth. What was I thinking?
