Under any other circumstances, this chant would just plain suck. But, for the Rockets who have suffered through such a long draught of playoff misery (or lack therof), it's like music to my ears. While there are indications the Rockets may still have one final move to make before training camp, it is clear that this offseason has not only yielded great progress by the Rockets front office in terms of shoring up the team for next season, but we have also seen solid playoff teams go in the opposite direction. And, while it is still early and there is a lot that could happen between now and the start of the season, I give you my list of the Western Conference contenders and where the Rockets sit in that pack (hint: check the thread title). Who's Above Us? San Antonio Spurs Well, they are the world champs. With Duncan, Ginobili and Parker, they already had what they needed to make another run. Adding Finley only makes them a greater threat to every other team in the conference. Simply put, they are the class of the NBA and every other team is looking up at them for now. Besides the Spurs, no other team can arguably be above the Rockets in pre-season seeding and here's why... Phoenix Suns Last season's wonder-team decided they wanted more toughness and defense this summer. Thinking they would re-sign Joe Johnson, they dumped Quentin Richardson for Kurt Thomas. Johnson, hacked at the Suns lowball, forced a long-talked-about trade to Atlanta and the Suns got literally nothing in return. Now, they lose out on Finley as well. The Suns still have Nash, Marion and Stoudamire, but they will have a tough time filling the two spot with anything credible and Thomas at center? Bring that on. The Suns always claim to want to play defnese, but it never happens. My guess it that they will continue to try and run like crazy, but their offense took a serious step backward. Seattle Sonics The Sonics lost muscle underneath and a talented point guard and found their only real acquisitions of the summer worth noting was the re-signing of Ray Allen. Worse yet, they lost their coach to a rival. They'll probably bring back Radmanovich, but it is hard to see the Sonics playing over their heads again like they did last year. Dallas Mavericks The Mavs killed the Rockets with quickness on the perimeter. With the addition of Derek Anderson and the added shot blocking of Stromile Swift, time to say, "uh oh." The Mavs cut Finley under the league's one-time amnesty rules and picked up Doug Christie to replace him along with Diop from Cleveland. They added some defensive skill, but they still haven't gotten stronger on the block (something they've been trying to do since Roy Tarpley went nuts) and the philosophy there - Avery Johnson or the Nelsons - is not going to shift instantly to all defense all the time. They will still be a formiddable team (probably just behind Houston), but they have not upgraded and they and the Rocks were virtually even. Sacramento Kings The Kings had an interesting offseason and they will likely be the fashionable dark horse pick to make noise in the west, but I want to see it before I believe it. They lost Cuttino Mobley to LAC and Bobby Jackson to the Grizz, but they picked up Abdur-Rahim and Bonzi Wells. It's an odd mixture. They have some above average guys, but no singular star and I don't see them playing a ton of defense with that line-up. They will be interesting to watch, but they don't have the one big time player to put them over the top. Denver Nuggets The Nuggets most needed a two guard and they got nothing. They are relying on the magic of a returning George Karl and the gelling of their young players. They can be dangerous, but they have little help offensively on the perimeter and a lot of questionable middle-of-the-road talent to go with Carmelo Anthony. The drafting of Julius Hodge won't help them on the perimeter, so they are still stuck looking for someone to help. Memphis Grizzlies I'm not sure if Jerry West was trying to make the team suck before he got out of dodge, but damn. For their losses of Williams, Posey, Swift and Wells, they got Bobby Jackson and Eddie Jones in return. WTF? Lottery, here they come. Minnesota Timberwolves Wow. For a team that struggled so mightily last year and bailed on its coach in the process, they sure didn't do much to bolster the T-Wolves faithful. They moved Cassell for Jaric, essentially a sideways move. It got them younger, but is a young Jaric as good as Cassell was when he came to Minny? Doubtful. They're going to lose Sprewell but they added Tskitishvlli? Nice. There are days when I feel sorry for Kevin Garnett, but then I get over it. Golden State Warriors Another up-and-comer that will be a fashionable playoff pick. They added two high draft picks that should help them but stood pat otherwise. They still lack a dynamic force outside of J Rich, who, despite being a fantastic player, isn't the type to dominate a game like the great one's. They will struggle with youth, but have a brighter future if they can just get it together. Everyone else in the west is in the middle of overhaul or re-building. The Lakers will suck Zen style with Jackson. The Jailblazers will try to shed their thug image and take on badge of pure suckitude instead with their re-building project. The Jazz, well, they are the Jazz. They'll play well at times, but it won't matter if AK47 comes back and averages a triple double. They are thin and young. All you have to know about the Jazz is that they did a sign and trade to get Ostertag back probably because they had no one that would fit in the king size doghouse built for him the last time he played for Sloan. Beyond that, even if the Hornets have a venue to play in, they are so bad, no one will notice. And Mobley and Cassell can't save the Clippers from themselves. No one can. The end result is a Rockets team that should, barring serious injuries, contend for a spot in the Western Conference Finals. Now, can they beat the Spurs? That will be the big question to answer this season. But, I sure as hell would like to see that series! Bring the season on, biyatch!!!
Well, I agree -- to an extent. The Spurs? Devon Brown and/or BBarry will be the Finley casualty and I am not convinced that's great for SAS. However, they are the defending ring bearers and are likely to be as good, or better. Bet TD gets FT% to 70+%. The Rox? Better with a healthy Sura and season long MJ. Better at the 4, and longer at the 2. Better with another year of TMc/Yao/JVG. Goos enough to be #2? Maybe. Hopefully. Definitely? Just not yet convinced. But ready to find out how good Rox can and will be. Phx? If Nash can repeat they'll be t-o-u-g-h, but can they sail through the p/o with KT in the middle? Nah. Sonics? Can the wonderful Ray be a ray of sunshine in RainTown again? Some slippage, for sure. I wasn't convinced last year. I am not convinced this year either. Mavs? They will be tough to best. Dirk on a mission? Stack with m ore minutes. Another year for Howard/Daniels/Harris could be dangerous for other teams. Team most likely to fix flaws on the fly. Sac? Did NOT lose BJax. He's been lost for two seasons. Biggest problems are too many 4s, one too few 1s. Nugs? They'll be difficult, as they have talent and a great mile high home court advantage. Biggest problem is when George reverts to being George. They're fine -- until then. Griz? They upgraded the 1, improved their chemistry problems, shortened their rotation. If Gasol grows nads then they are very good. Wolves? Do they still have KG? Has their locker room upgraded? The Mayor is a big loss. I don't bet against Garnett, particularly if he has the 'tude I've been hearing attributed to him after their ignobly ugly season. W's? Isn't Baron their stud? He's quality, very much in the mold of our Stevie. 'Nuff said. Clips? No depth, but a nice roster. They may make noise, but they're still owned by Duh Donald, no? The Jazz will be back, but Randolph and ther 1s will send them home in April. Only the Buzz - ards are assured a seat at Lotto HQ.
Yeah, I agree Go Rockets for the #2 in the west and #3 in the NBA All-NBA list: 1. Spurs 2. Heat 3. Rockets 4. Pistons 5. Suns
I agree for the most part, but think that Jeff's assessment is slightly optimistic. I agree that Denver, Sacramento, and Seattle will all be weaker. Memphis, Minnesota, GS, and LAC will not improve enough to challenge us. SA is flat-out better than we are. But I think Jeff writes off the Suns and Mavs too easily. Both teams' bring back their most valuable players. Sure, it's easy to say the Suns will miss Joe Johnson...but then, his good play was very much a product of the opportunities created for him by the brighter stars on the court. Some other random 2 with half-decent ability will get a shot...and produce better than you expect because of the talent around him. The Mavs still have Dirk. And they've got a lot of young, athletic guys...and if one of them can make another step towards stardom, they'll still be very tough to beat. I just am not convinced that Finley was all that important to them...and they have so many players that could improve. I see the West like this: 1. SA 2(a) Phoenix 2(b) Houston 2(c) Dallas -------- -------- -------- Everyone else.
The Clippers might be alright. I think they'll either be 7th,8th or 9th in the West at season's end. Cassell and Mobley like to jack up stupid shots, Brand loves to rebound those types of shots. Magette is still there, but they lack a solid center, but that's a problem for half of the NBA? Of course, your point was that they are below the Rockets and I agree.
Yes, I like breathing oxygen EVERDAY, letting the sun rise and knowing that we will always be better than the Clippers.
i agree with Jeff. Phoenix will not be nearly as good as last year, like i said in many threads, their strength was the spead, and they lost that. Who is gonna hit the three ball on the fast break?? Dallas will be a strong team, we will see how they will do. SA is the best. so: SA Houston Dallas rest
But I think Jeff writes off the Suns and Mavs too easily. Both teams' bring back their most valuable players. Sure, it's easy to say the Suns will miss Joe Johnson...but then, his good play was very much a product of the opportunities created for him by the brighter stars on the court. Some other random 2 with half-decent ability will get a shot...and produce better than you expect because of the talent around him. Phoenix lost two key wing players, perimeter shooters, slashers and 2nd best ball-handler, AND their back-up center AND one of their back-up guards and replaced with a hack at back-up center, a completely unproven 2-guard who is still "developing" and an undersized Center/Power Forward in Kurt Thomas. It's easy to say that Johnson got his production because of Nash but, the bottomline is that it was production that the SUns will miss. Johnson was FAR more important to that team then you realize, just take a look at what happened to Phoenix against San Antonio when he went down and how that team got dramatically better when he made his return in Game 4. The reason teams around the league struggled against Phoenix wasn't so much Nash and Stoudemire but because of the people around them that protected them. Many of which they don't have anymore.
I agree completely with this. Phoenix wasn't great last year because of the alleged greatness of Nash and Stoudemire. They were great because they could put 5 skilled players on the court at once and run and gun you to death. It allowed Nash to do what he does best - pass, and Stoudemire to do what he does best - uhh, dunk. Nash-Marion-Stoudemire alone as a trio isn't that impressive. Quite frankly, I think this Suns team will be the 7th or 8th seed. Sacramento will be interesting. They appear deep and skilled but the strength of that team was its passing. Abdur Rahim and Wells aren't exactly great passers. A few years ago when Webber went down, they still had the best record for much of the year, so you can't write the core of Bibby-Peja-Miller off. However, how much of that could be attributed to the psychological aspect of playing above your head when a superstar is injured, but settling back to reality when he is lost for good and all hope has vanished? They will win their division but won't do much in the playoffs. Denver is the team that everyone is overlooking. They are made for the regular season. The thing that is so startling about the West this year is that none of these teams are built for contention. That is a far cry from the last decade when the conference was stacked with contenders. There are 3 great players in the West now. Duncan, McGrady, and Bryant. (I don't consider Garnett great - he can't score.) We know about Duncan, and Bryant has no supporting cast. I want to be objective, but any way I look at it, Houston is clear and away the 2nd best team in the conference.
Amare/Nash were STILL pretty dominant in the playoffs when JJ was injured and Q was completely ineffective. I think Phoenix still be able to hang with almost anybody in the league, even if they don't win 60+ games in the regular season. They'll still be a tough team to face. A lot of posters on this board REALLY underestimate Amare Stoudemire. They won't be a legit contender, but really, they never were.
Pheonix Suns I really would not count this team out. Having watched Kurt thomas on the Knicks, I've noticed even at 33 he still has a decent 15ft jumper. How effective he will be in the West is still yet to be seen. I would actually consider Raja Bell better than QRich. I think he shot like a 41.3% from the three point line. Their main loss is Joe Johnson (I don't think Diaw and James Jones can fill that void) and I don't know if they have yet to bring a decent back up for Nash yet. Sonics Well I think their team took a major step back and I don't see them at the third seed again. They lost a coach, lost some major pieces and it doesn't seem like they've added replacements. I also think a great deal of their success from last season was from the lack of competition in their division. The Nuggets weren't that formidable until GKarl came in and the rest of the teams just blew. Mavs OH I can't wait to stick it to them. Dirk on a mission... I think this season Tracy Mcgrady and Yao's Blazing Flames of vengence to prove they are truly the scariest team in the west will make Dirk look like he isn't even trying. Dampier, the self proclaimed second best center behind Shaq, will be attacked and smacked on by almost every center in the league. I will say this though, Avery Johnson is a heck of a coach. The little guy definitely has some brains. Kings If they can get a good back up pg for Bibby and a better back up at Center for Miller, they are a team that will make some noise. I think these guys will definitely give the suns a run for the division title. Nuggets I heard they are close to getting Latrell Choking Spree. He wants to be reunited with his good ol' buddy Marcus camby. I wonder if Spree will control his choking abilities once George becomes George again. If they are having a New York Knicks reunion there maybe we can send them Charlie Ward and Gin Baker up there for Nene? hehe Grizz They have made some interesting moves again. I wouldn't count them out but I see them as no threat to contend. I definitely still see them fighting for the sloppy seconds on the bottom seeds. Minny Poor Garnett. Geeze is there GM really trying to help their star out? Well since it looks like they will be going home early again this season Griffin might be able to spend some time on working on his aim more. Golden State They are definitely going to be fun to watch. They'll give some team headaches but their front court is still just made of glass. Their backcourt though looks really nice and could cause alot of teams with less athletic and slower backcourts some trouble. Enough trouble to compete for a playoff seed, I really don't know. The Jazz This team looks like they could cause some noise and surprises too. I really wouldn't count them out of running for a bottom seed in the playoffs. Deron Williams is just awesome. I really did want him as a Rocket. I think with a healthy AK 47 and if Deron can mold into Sloan's system they will be quite decent and cause some damage. I think they will be this year's sleeper as Seatle was last year. A threat to us? Nahhhh.... Lakers Good luck to Phil. I'll send you some aspirin or some advil for the headaches you might endure through the season. Take' em down with this bottle of Boekers(top shelf single barell jim beam for those who didn't know and it is 175 proof). Blazers Lmao Clippers LMAO again... Go Sam I AM Go CAT... I might have to send you guys some Boekers and aspirin or advil too. They look better than last year and actually have a decent coach but man DS is as much BS of a sports team owner that I've ever seen. New Orleans Well I guess there goes Mardi Gras. But seriously... good luck to your team and everyone that was affected by this dissaster. The team has a good staff member in Tim who used to work for the Rockets and used to post/interact here too. Hope things get better for them. They definitely need to be rescued. Spurs/Rockets Us being second. Wow. We definitely have a good shot at it but I honestly feel we have quite a few what if's as well. As much as I'd love to jump up and down and self proclaim it like Dampier did, I want to see how our additions gel. I am still worried about the fraility of our back court and like the Suns with nash, who do we have to back up (even if it is for a few minutes) Tmac. But barring any injuries, and a couple games into the season to build chemistry with the new guys I think we not only have a chance to not just be second best but to be the best. We have definitely added athleticism to our lineup. Our front court is looking very solid if Juwan Howard's heart can tick regularly through the season and post season. I am definitely going to love seeing Mcgrady just take it to Bowen who the media just goes on and on how he is like one of the greatest defenders. They should seriously watch the clip of Tmac's 13pts in 35 seconds again and see how bowen was flapping his arms in confusion like a chicken being choked, trying to hinder any of Mcgrady's three pointers. I think brent barry will be get some time as a back up pg as he did in seatle now since udrih didn't show much last season and I doubt NVE has barely anything left in his legs to produce to adequately back up parker. I think the addition of Finley gives them that flexibility. The Spurs are definitely the king and the suns the queen to behead and I think through the season we will prove to the Nation we are ready to be the guillotine. Let's hope our players hold up.
I'd rather be the underdogs. I think we play harder when the critics and other teams count us out. That's the attitude we won our 2 championships with and I wouldn't have it any other way. I know it's hard not to expect so much out of our team with the talent we have but I love it when our rockets do the unexpected. Like sweeping that killer road series that everyone thought we would go on a losing streak and totally dominating the tailend of our schedule. That was so unexpected and enjoyable. I say bring on the naysayers!! Bring on the reports of Houston being an 8th seed!! I Just love it when our beloved Rockets can prove them all wrong!
Good post Jeff. It is amazing to see the Western Conference not be as "top heavy" as it once was. Now that distinction is in the East with Miami, Detroit and Indiana. I think the Rockets ARE the 2nd best team in the West. The teams ahead of them, Seattle, Phoenix and Dallas, all LOST players. The Rockets GAINED players. And the Kings, while they gained SAR and Wells, I think they are all offense and limited defense. They might win a fair amount of regular season games but will stall in the playoffs. I am comfortable saying the Rockets are the 2nd best team in the West. We have the right chemistry, shored up some holes in our roster and have a nice balance of offense and defense that many teams in the West just dont have. It is really fashionable to pick teams because they are loaded offensively, but defensively the Rockets might be the best right there with San Antonio and in the long run that will make a big difference!
This is the key distinction. Regular Season v. Post Season. In the Regular Season, SA is the best. Teams like PHX, Dal, SAC and Den will all win a ton of games. They have balanced rosters and play styles that will beat the vast majority of mediocre and bad teams. I predict regular season results/playoff seedings to be something like 1. SA 2. Phx (winner of Pacific Div) 3. Den (winner of Northwest Div) 4. Houston 5. Dallas 6. SAC 7. Seattle 8. Memphis or Minn or GS (who cares) The danger is that Houston, Dallas and SAC will have close regular season records and I could easily see these three teams in any order among 4-6 seed. Obviouly, I'd rather have the Rockets get the 4th seed, for home court in round 1, or the 6th seed, to avoid the SA bracket. In any event, in terms of likelihood of actual playoff success, I'd rank the western conference as: 1. SA - nobody's close 2. Houston 3. Dallas 4. Phx 5. Den 6. Sac 7. Sea 8. Mem/Minn/GS There is a huge gap between SA and everyone else. I think Houston and Dallas are fairly close, with Houston being better built for playoff success and Dallas being more experienced. I give Houston the edge. But heed my words, keep an eye on Dallas. With a full training camp and season under Avery, he will have them playing defense. I feel the subtraction of Finley will actually improve them. Except for Dirk, Finley represented the last significant player from the Nellie/offense regime. Removing Finley changes the focus, direction and chemistry. Adding Christie is more about adding defensive mindset than adding talent. The howards and daniels of the team will be cut loose to attack on defense, as will terry and d. armstrong. Phx, Den and Sac are all fairly close but rate a notch below the Texas teams because they don't play defense. All three play a type of finesse/run/gun style that doesn't amount to playoff success. PHx can get kurt thomas and brian grant, but that doens't mean that their perimeter defense will be worth squat. Denver is a donut team with limited outside shooting. SAC could recapture some of the offensive efficiency when they were challenging the LAL with Webber. But their window is closed. SAR is the best stop gap they could get, but they are mired in above-averageness.
Barring injury, I think it is a two horse race. Clearly the Spurs are the favorites, but you can't count out the Rockets. Both the Rockets superstars are younger than the Spurs counterparts--more room to grow. I the Rockets have the ingredients--defense, superstars, role players--to put it all together, and like the Spurs could have a 60+ win season. No other WC team can say than IMO. Sorry, unless the Rockets really dissappoint there should be no way Dallas or Suns or Seattle or Sac should be able to keep pace. Look at how close we were to Dallas last season--most probably we were better than than with JH and Sura healthy. Now add Swift and DA to that--no contest. Phx will be good, but I don't know if they can still take their own division, Sac to me is every bit as good on paper. Under the most optimistic projection, however neither team as well as Dallas and SEA and will be able to play the defense of the Spurs or Rockets. Denver could the 3rd best defensive team in the West on paper, but unless Melo growns into a true and consistent unstoppable superstar their O will fail versus the best of the best.
I agree pretty much with most of your predictions Jeff, but I think the Lakers just have way to much talent and a damn good coach to not make the playoffs.
the spurs will finish the season 15 games under .500 mark it on your calendars the rockets will go 71-11, just 1 win shy of the bulls all-time record.
