Obviously we pulled off a heck of a trade to bring TMac in, and I'm looking forward to next season. But I also think that the next one will be every bit as tense as the previous one, with nothing guaranteed. The other day I was chatting with an old friend and I was gloating about how the Rockets are a sure Western conference top 3 next year, and he was playing devils advocate and saying that we're not even a lock for the playoffs. That kind of brought me back to reality. What's kind of funny is that you can reasonably reason that the Rockets can be atop the West. But you can just as easily reason that we miss the playoffs. I read that Dave Aldridge Boozer article today, and it got me thinking. There's really two rationales here for the Rockets too. Perfect: --JVG will be able to sustain arguably the league's second best defense (both in terms of points allowed and FG defense). Our achilles' heel of high turnovers leading to low offensive production will be solved with the absence of Francis and the addition of a go to scorer like TMAC. We're better than Team X because: San Antonio -- they still have Duncan, but this team is stagnating. The had all this cap a couple of seasons ago and seemed to be able to land another superstar PG or SG to play alongside TD. Now that superstar has turned into Ginobili + Nesterovic + Barry. Not enough to beat our one two punch. Minnesota -- we beat them twice last year without TMac. Cassell is good player, but no way he sustains that level of play again this year, that's against the laws of biology. Sprewell, meanwhile, is only getting older. Plus Yao eats this team alive. Sacramento -- people talked about their window being closed last year. Now it's one year later. No more Vlade, Christie is starting to show age, and Webber's never going to be 100% again. Peeler is a FA, and that bench is so long removed from the bench mob days. Memphis -- we signed TMac, they signed... Brian Cardinal. Just how good is a team with Pau Gasol as its best player? Denver -- we were better than them last year. With TMac we gain another positive matchup. Plus that team is too young to make that much noise. Dallas -- Nash is gone, the PG is going to be manned by inexperienced players, and that will hurt the run and gun offense. Nowitzki has plateaued, and that 25-10 season was an anomaly. Walker and Stackhouse? If they don't take each other apart fighting over the ball we'll kill them because they may just have the worst defense in the modern NBA era. Phoenix -- Have you guys noticed TMac's ESPN highlights during the whole trade saga? It's all of TMac lighting up none other than Shawn Marion on screen and rolls. Think of how nasty that is with Yao Ming instead of Andrew DeClercq. Steve Nash is not going to be able to elevate the Suns from bottom dweller to contender. Lakers -- Shaq was the only reason this team was a contender. Kobe's gonna find out the truth the hard way. New Orleans -- Eastern Conference team trying to play with the big boys. Utah -- Sure those guys overracheived tremendously last season. This season with all their players healthy they'll probably just normal-acheive... and that's not gonna be good enough. Portland, Seattle, Golden State, Clippers are not good enough to make the playoffs. real --Sure we have two legit stars and an enviable blueprint now. But first of all the chemistry built up over the last season is going to need re-building, Yao and T-Mac are going to take time to mesh, and that's going to cost us games in the early stages of the season. Our defense, without Cat and Cato's tenacity, will drop to the mediocre range. Too many uncertainties about Yao's progression/fatigue and TMac's health, plus JVG's coaching style make it impossible to have a top tier offense too. Team X is better than us because: San Antonio -- minus a crazy shot in the playoffs they could have been NBA champs. That team is just solid like that. Yao is no Duncan, and Bowen will shut TMac down. We don't have a sparkplug like Ginobili, nor do we have good bench players like they do. Minnesota -- they were the best team in the West last year, and may have won if Cassell didn't get injured. Plus two of their good players: Wally World and Troy Hudson, were injured. With all the peices healthy, the Wolves are even better. Sacramento -- Chris Webber, if healthy, is much better than what we have at PF. Bibby is going to light us up like always, and Christie will do adequately defending TMac. Peja is a top 5 player in the league which we have no answer to, and Brad Miller can neutralize Yao. Memphis -- they murdered us three times last year. Hubie keeps getting system guys and the system may be even better this year. Denver -- only one spot below us last year. This year Nene is more experienced, Andre Miller may become more accustomed to his teammates and hence play better. Camby slaughtered Yao last year, which we all remember. Carmelo can only get better and now they get a tough guy in KMart, who will just eat Howard and MoT and spit out bones. Dallas -- their record was much better than ours last year. Dirk may regain the top 5 form of two years ago, and the Mavs have an influx of young talent. Phoenix -- Amare will keep getting better. And a line up Nash, Joe Johnson (who is a star), Marion, Amare, and whoever they play at center is more athletic than our lineup. Nash will be able to elevate Amare and Marion and Johnson's games. Clippers -- If they get Kobe, then it's Kobe, Brand, Q, Wilcox plus a bunch of their young athletic players. The Rockets may not be able to keep up with them. Utah -- they were a hair away from the playoffs last year. This year they upgrade at Center (Okur), PF (Boozer), while keeping Arroyo, AK47, and they get Harpring back. A young team with tremendous upside, plus they are coached by Sloan who will get them all to play well. Think about it, they were able to beat us with AK47 and scrubs, what now? --------------------------------------------------- So anyway, what do you think? Can we improve our playoff position or not?
Terrific post, Yipengzhao. Your point is well taken. We're already anointing ourselves the newest dynasty, when the competition out West is just as deep as ever. I think, as you do too, I'm guessing, that the truth is somewhere in the middle, but this is an excellent breakdown of both extremes.
This is how I see the West shaking down: 1. San Antonio - Duncan returns with same cast plus Barry. Remember that this is the same cast that won a title only one year ago. Say what you will about stagnant, but I call it stability. They are consistently one to the top 2 or 3 defensive teams, and they aren't going anywhere for a while. 2. Sacramento - On the decline, but with the Lakers sure to take a dive, I think they will still end up with a better recored than others in their division. Should be the last run together for this group...after another early playoff exit, I expect major changes to this team during the next offseason. 3. Minnesota - Agree completely with you here. The Twolves seem to have peaked last year, but if you look closer you realize they were at least partially sabotaged by injuries. If Hudson does stay, I would expect them to have a better record than everyone except possibly San Antonio. 4. Dallas - Even without Nash, Shaq or Jamison, I don't think they will be dropping out of the top 4 in the West. Too much talent. Not a real threat to win a championship though. Can you imagine what another early playoff exit will push Cuban to next year. 5. HOUSTON - This year, I think we knock on the doorstep of greatness. With our PG and backup C options dwindling daily, I hope the Rockets take a conservative approach to this year, let JVG see what he has/needs, and then fine tune the team next offseason. But we will definitely see an improvment over last year and some tantalizing glimpses of what is still to come. I expect to steal a first round series against a Dallas or a Sacto and then put a good fight against the Spurs in the second round before bowing out. 6. LaLakers - Without Shaq, Kobe and crew fall out of the elite. Still a playoff team, but no longer a favorite to win anything. 7. Memphis - A great story last year, but I see a return to earth next year for this bunch of above-average hustle players. Still good enough to get run in the first round though. 8. PHX/DEN/UTAH - I see this as being a dogfight to the last day of the season between these three. I give the edge to Jerry Sloan in Utah, but regardless of what happens next year, these are the teams who will take the place of Dallas, LA and Sacramento in the years to come. As for Portland, New Orleans, the Clips and others, you'd be great in the East, but there's just not enough room in this conference.
the truth IS somewhere in the middle. i think we will be fighting for homecourt advantage in the first round, but end up like a 4 or 5 seed. http://proxy.espn.go.com/chat/chatESPN?event_id=5548 Jack Ramsay thinks the top four is San Antonio, Minnesota, Utah, Sacramento, in that order.
actually, with the options left out there... i don't believe the PG position will make or break us. still can't believe Brent Barry took less money and less PT to play for the Spurs. but hey... it wouldn't have been a great deal for us anyway.
Remember, yipeng, you have a bet on how well Yao will perform next year, right? What exactly is the bet? Yao dominates west or gets 20+/10+ stats? I am very interested in how things turn out for him next season. Although I am currently a Yao doubter, I have to admit Rox's success is largely depended on Yao's development.
Great post Yippengzhao but you were incorrect about one thing. If Kobe goes to the Clippers Quentin Richardson will definitely be wearing a Phoenix Suns jersey. They've already offered him a 6 year 48 million dollar deal. The Clippers are just waiting to see what their chances with Kobe are before they decide if they match or not.
haha, dr. jack ramsay agrees with you. see that shows how much i know. this just in: http://proxy.espn.go.com/chat/chatESPN?event_id=5548 cp18515(arlington, tx): Jack what player pieces do the rockets need to compete with the rest of the west, and why do you think utah will be better than the rockets? Dr. Jack Ramsay: (3:47 PM ET ) Rockets will be there also...but they need a point and some bench help. Utah has changed their roster significantly...Okur, Boozer and K47...that may be the best front line in the West...especially the way that Jerry Sloan operates his O... --- i do agree with him about the Utah upgrade though... they're upgrading three positions under a very good coach. really they're upgrading five positions because arroyo and AK47 are young and can only be better with another year under their belt. very interesting about the "best frontcourt in the west," three above average players > one man shows --> Yao, TD, KG.
Good post Yipenyao! One thing that we do not discuss enough is the CHEMISTRY issues that we will have. The teams that finished above us last year generally will not have the same amount of tweaks that we will have. So not only are we lacking a starting PG, bruising PF, and a reliable back up center, we have no clue what our chemistry will be like. I remain optimistic that Van Gundy will get this team to gel quickly but it will most likely take a few months.
Jazz will go from most underrated to overrated team IMHO. They will good, solid and hard working team, but top 3team in the West? Get real! Arroyo needs to show goods year in and year out, and Okur is too soft in my view. And without a star offensive player in the team, I wonder how Jazz will put up significant offensive numbers, especially against good defensive team. And how come a team chemistry not a issue for the Jazz while it is for the Rockets? West is so deep at this moment of time: I think it is too early to rule out Portland out yet, and there are at least 10-11 teams that must feel good about making the playoff. But I seriously doubt we will miss the play-offs this year, barring major injuries to Yao or Mc Grady. We have just added a dominant scorer and a nice role player, and Yao is one the verge of major breakout season IMO. Nonetheless, yipengzhao has a good point that there are major uncertainty around some of the issues, and too many x-factors in the team. And there is a possibility that we might not get a home-court advantage. Since I am an eternal optimist, I feel good about our chances.
It will be good to get back to hating on the Jazz full time, again. Even without the pasty gansta and Karla. A whole new cast of hatables, led by Booooooooooo-zer.
Great thread! Utah scares me...I would like to write them off, but they always seem to find a way to beat expectations.
Don't count on Utah getting Boozer and Okur... Its possible that Boozer will sign with CLE for the 1 year 5 mil contract they are offering him, or that CLE will match the offer, then send him off somewhere, so they get something for him. Its also possible, that DET might not be able to afford Rasheed Wallace, and if he goes elsewhere, they could end up matching the contract with Okur. So, Utah hasn't hit their gold just yet. But, if they do get them both, they did a great job upgrading this off-season. No doubt. As far as the Rockets, I agree, that we'll probably be 5th in the regular season, but JVG's defense may shine in the playoffs, and we could contend. It depends on who we get for PG and backup center, and if we're able to upgrade at PF.
Wow so many long posts I'm gonna read this tonight. EDIT: great posts everyone... How about we sign Anthony Peeler? I don't know..should we start playing Nachbar and Gaines and maybe Badiane? Or do we sign solid veterans who have experience..? What about like the Grizzlies..we have a bunch of solid role players playing around the same number of minutes..substitutions..and Tmac and Yao are the main components...Mo and Howard..and Battie or Badiane or Dampier ..then Lue and Ward, Fisher, Wilks, Jackson, or whoever..Jones. Jimmy, Peeler?, Boki?, Eric Williams?, Adrian Griffin?, Eric Piatkowski.. I would like guys who hustle and can rebound and shoot and play defense. I think we can be contenders
Regarding Utah being so much better than last year because of their off season signings. I hope that in a few years we can compare Okur's contract to that of Ostertag. Though I will always respect a Sloan coached team, I don't see them finishing aove the Rox. Playoffs yes, above us no.
Excellent post, yipengzhao..... IMHO the Rockects have the potential to move past all those teams next year except San Antonio and Minnesota. I think SA in particualar will be far better than us. I see where there are those who think Utah will come back to earth next year - don't bet on it.
