Rocket fans are giddy (I was) about the TMac trade. But we have some serious problems. Losing Cato and Francis opened some big holes- mainly rebounding, JVG is well aware of this and has said the same. Losing Cat has left us a shooter short. Besides Yao and TMac are we going to be strong enough inside and out? We are not a tough inside team. Yao is not a strong rebounder and is not a tough defender. Improving, but not tough. We lost some toughness inside, but even w/ Cato we were not tough enough in the post. Second, we need shooters. Shooters who can't be left open. This was a weakness last year and could be weaker this year. Yao and TMac are a good start, but we could actually slip in the conference if the supporting cast doesn't get stronger. The idea we can just add some filler at PG and backup center is a very dangerous notion. I can see teams doubling TMac, giving him the same treatment he had in Orlando and Yao not being strong enough to take over the game. At least in the second half of the season. I am really concerned about how strong we are going to play on the boards and low post defense. We needed to improve this area and I don't see it. Not getting Brent Barry was huge. Not getting a physical insider rebounder will hurt alot. If we don't pick up a good shooter and a good rebounder I don't think we are going to be improved. We need one more very solid player to get past the 7-8 seed. In fact mark these words. Warning- as we stand today this team will be hard pressed to make the playoffs. We must get one more solid scorer and rebounder.
If Yao fades some again in the second half of the season, who picks up the heat off of TMac? Who strikes fear in your heart? I really believe we need one more solid player. J Howard is not a solid third option. Nor is JJ, or Mo Taylor I'm not saying we had it last year, I'm saying we needed it last year and we haven't got it yet for this coming season. TMac will still need more help than just Yao. Unless Yao comes to dominate the inside this coming season like a Shaq or Hakeem.
What's with all these "mark my words" lately? It seems like everyone is saying it. On the radio and here.
You may not think that J. Howard is the answer, but look at the stats. Last year he averaged 17 points and 7 rebounds while shooting 45%. He is a career 47% shooter. Everyone knows he can knock down a 15 foot jumper without a problem. Teams cannot leave him alone on offense like they did Cato. Last year Cato only 6 points and 6.8 rebounds and shot 44% per game in only about 10 less minutes than Howard. Yes Cato was a better defensive player last year, but remember Cato did that when he wanted to. I really dont think that Howard will be that much of a drop off in production than Cato. In fact, he will truly help open up the offense even more. Last year Cato's man was able to leave him wide open and double Yao or help with Steve/Cat. They cannot do that anymore with Howard, he will make them pay. So on offense I think Howard can be the third option along with JJ. He has a good game on the offensive end of the floor. Now, yes I think he still need a rebounder to throw in the mix, but I do not see the sky falling around here. Things are still good.
We will be fine. Could we use another shooter? Sure. Would it help to have a better rebounding big guy? Absolutely. Are we going to be a better team even if we stand pat? You better believe it. Yao will have more room to operate due to the fact that JH can knock down an open jumper. Teams used to dare Cato to make shots, and more often than not he couldn't. If not for alley oops, I am not cure Cato would have averaged more than 2 pts per game. If Yao gets tired, T-mac can simply take over the game, and unlike in Orl, when he goes to the hoop you have to stay with Yao which should create room for T-mac. If the D collapses on T-Mac, then Yao is going to get easy buckets. JJ is going to get ALOT of open shots, and he is going to knock a ton of them down. Pike could easily rebound and have a good shooting year. He is too good a shooter to have another bad year. I think his injury got him off to a slow start and he pressed too hard when he came back. I expect a good year from Boki. He showed alot of hustle, and an improved shooting stroke last year. Once he get some confidence I think he'll be a great player for us. This team (with a decent PG) is going to be far superior to last years team, I have no doubt about that.
So, even if your worst case scenario happens, which I don't believe it will, we have the foundation of a contender. If we don't get those pieces to fit around the dynamic duo this summer, fine, we'll get them in the next year or two. There's no reason to panic. I'd hate to see us make a bad decision financially in this absurd overpriced PA market, because we HAVE to make a deal, that holds us back later.
I think that too many people are underestimating Juwon Howard. He's a solid player, and although their games are different, he represents the same amount of value as Mobley. The loss of Cato is a bother, though. A defensive-minded big man to jump in and give the team some energy when Yao goes to the bench would be very much appreciated.
OK- I am excited about our outlook, but I don't expect us to be alot better without addressing so glaring problems- 1. Rebounding, JVG said that we gave up a lot of reb. when you add up Steve and Cato. Those have to come from J. Howard and T Mac..., but we could have used more interior toughness last year and we rebounding was already a weakness. Howard is not a real physical rebounder and he is not a shot blocker= Cato. We are going to suffer if we expect to over come an already weak area with fodder= Chris Mihm or someone like him. I am not even saying we can get someone this season. May take another year. Also when defenses key up on Yao and TMac and during the 2nd half Yao tires some we will need a third player who can get it done. Example: Det. Wallace, Hamilton, Billups Minn. Garnett, Sprewell, Casell (BTW- w/o Cassell they were elim.) SA- Duncan, Parker, Ginobili, Barry (Btw- when Parker disappeared so did their playoffs) We do not have the depth of Memphis. We do not have the depth of Indiana. We do not have the depth of Sacramento So either we add more solid depth- Mobley caliber players. Or one more solid scorer. And some toughness on the inside. Otherwise we are competing with LA, Utah, Denver, Portland, Dallas, and Phoenix for the 5-8 seed. I love TMac and Yao, we are going to be a much smarter team. Less turnovers. I don't think we are a dominant team yet. I want us to contend for the title. Not scrap for the last 2 playoff seeds. But if we do struggle I will stay committed to the future building around Yao and TMac. But I'm sure some of you who think we are Oky- Doky will be flaming either JVG or somebody in the lineup because we are struggling to stay above .500 If we the fans are willing to accept this next year however it turns out (I'll take a title if possible)- then I am confident we will get there with our 2 stars. I will just send out a I told you so if we don't get some help this year.
Rhester, You have more than proven your point that this team has holes and is not perfect. I think the Rockets and everyone realizes that. However, we are not in a situation where these holes have to be addressed right now. Yao and TMac are both under 25. I feel good knowing that these holes will eventually be filled over the next few seasons, just in time for Tmac and Yao to hit their primes. Please, lets not build a "win now" type of team and get suckered into more bad contracts and trades.
I don't understand the rebounding issues.... Last year, Howard averaged more rpg than Cato and T Mac averaged more than Steve. I truly can't believe that losing Cats rebounding is going to present a problem
I agree. Ok I feel better. I know we have the best 1-2 nucleus in the league. period. Thanks for letting me stabilize by own emotions by considering the shortfalls we still can improve on. I'm looking for some tough D, smart and smooth offense, and improvement from Yao. (Specifically endurance in the last 40 games) 2nd round of the playoffs or beyond. Go Rockets
btw- my thinking on the trade for TMac has definately been affected by what happened to the Houston Astros this year. bad analogy
I think alot of fans are setting themselves up to see a team similar to the 1999-2002 Lakers with Shaq and Kobe. IMO, we just aren't going to see that this year. Lets remember that Shaq and Kobe were together for 3 or 4 seasons before they won a title, and went through 2 coaches and numerous role players before they had done so. Point is, this team's players (and maybe even the coach) will change around TMac and Yao until a winning combo is found, so being concerned about what players we have at this very moment is a lil premature. Have patience.
I know we lost some tough one-on-one defenders in Mobley & Cato, but 1) T-Mac can D up just as well or (IMO) better than Cat 2) Whoever replaces Francis is likely to be a better defender 3) I'm counting on JVG to make this a great TEAM defense, even if the individual defenders are not all All-Defensive team quality I'm OK with Howard as the a 3rd option, because we have T-mac & Yao s options #1 & #1a. Yes, we're not the toughest inside team in the world, but we're gonna be bigger on the front-line than most teams, and JVG will toughen these guys up.
You make a viable point however by filing the wholes we are in hopes of addressing, we also will fill that need. That third contributor will be a different player perhaps every night. Who was that third go to guy for the Fakers? Dgeorge? Rfox? Dfish? RHorry? (before last year) Thats why we are addressing the team's needs. With our first championship there was no third option. For that matter there was no second option. It was the team stepping up every night. It may be someone different night in night out. Smart money says Pike shoots better this year from the field. He should get a few more looks since he should be the first guy off the bench for Tmac. Boki is only going to be more of a contributor this year, and JJ is still a threat from downtown. We will have options to spread the floor with. MoT is always guaranteed offense off the bench, assuming he is still with the team, and Jhoward is solid. Not to mention any additional contributions we receive from our bench. If we can just fill our needs I think I will give this team a little time to gel before I panic. I personally think chemistry will be our biggest concern. CVcrew
