link NEW YORK -- Fresh off announcing the arrival of first baseman Carlos Delgado, the New York Mets struck again Monday, reaching agreement with free-agent closer Billy Wagner on a four-year contract. Wagner Wagner, considered by many the top reliever on the free-agent market, will be paid $10.5 million for each 2006, 2007, 2008 and 2009. There's a club option for 2010, in which the Mets will either pay him $8 million -- bringing the deal to $50 million -- or buy him out for $1 million. Either way, Wagner is guaranteed $43 million over four years.
As I posted in the other thread... Wagner's contract wasn't worth it 3 years ago, when he was most definitely in his prime. Truth be told, however, it definitely helps the Mets for next year... beyond that, and esp. once Wagner starts to lose his heat/has more nagging injuries... it will albatross them like Piazza's deal, Mo Vaughn's deal, Robby Alomar's deal, and soon enough... Carlos Beltran's deal.
BJ Ryan is in his late 20s and currently in his prime. Wagner is 34 years old and he relies on his heater (which will dissipate when he gets a little older). Not saying that either the Jays or Mets got fleeced, I'm saying that they both did.
Toronto certainly got fleeced - not because of BJ Ryan, but because having a top-flight expensive closer is a luxury. They have too many other holes to fill and a limited budget to work with. That said, the Mets, if they are willing to expand payroll, did a good job in my opinion. If you can afford to overpay for a closer, go for it. It certainly makes their team better - closer was a nightmare for them last year. Their closer had 8 blown saves and 7 losses, along with an ERA of 4. Not many teams have the luxury of the Mets, Yankees, Red Sox, etc but if you have that luxury, you might as well use it.
I hope the Mets enjoy having a closer when their 2nd best SP is Tom Glavine well past his prime. Not to mention the rest of that bullpen is mediocre at best. However, on the bright side, Billy Wagner will have ample opportunities to make stupid statements to the new york press. Furthermore, I thought teams last year were stupidly overspending. However, the salaries that relievers have gotten this year takes the cake, easily. 47 mil for 5 years on BJ Ryan, 43 mil for 4 on Wagner, 11 mil for 3 years on Middle reliever/lefty specialist Scott Eyre and 12 mil for 3 years on MR Bobby Howry. If I was a good SP or position player in this market I'd start to reevaluate my asking price asap.
The Mets were #3 overall in ERA last year. They have 2 starting pitchers with ERAs in the 2s. Glavine is likely their #3 pitcher with an ERA of 3.5 last year - essentially the same as his career average. Their two possible #5 pitchers have an ERA in the low 4s. They are absolutely set in starting pitching, in my opinion. It was their bullpen that sucked, and Wagner is a huge improvement there.
I tend to agree, but I think we're looking at it from Astros' eyes. Add $50MM to our payroll, and I'd want us to be a bit inefficient too. I'd want us to take chances to get players that put us over the top rather than only getting reasonably priced players, but never getting a chance at that huge move. For example, us getting Manny this year would change the NL Central race and might make us the favorite in the NL. We likely won't do it because it's not a financially sound move. But it sure would be fun. If my team has the luxury of being able to mistakes, I want my team taking those kinds of chances.
You rely way too much on statistics. A rotation of Pedro/Glavine/Benson/two out of 3 of Zambrano/Seo/Trachsel is not that good. And Jae Seo pitched way over his head last year. They do not have a quality 2nd starter anywhere behind pedro as of this moment. Furthermore, their bullpen still sucks, with the exception of now having a quality closer.
Actually, getting Manny WOULD be a financially sound move (for next year), since the Red Sox would likely pick up a bunch of his contract, especially if they were able to get some decent arms in return (Bucholz, Qualls?). I do believe Pupurra would at least peak into this posisbility... but I also believe that Manny himself would rather play in a larger market (or Cleveland), and it would be more due to his preference as to why he wouldn't come here. Additionally, there's always the chance that Manny could become another TO-like distraction, rip his teammates, rip the city of Houston, and eventually crush the feel-good spirit of this team... but there's also the chance that he could set a new single season HR record playing all his games in MMP. I'd take Manny any day of the week... I'd give up Lane, Qualls, and Bucholz for him in a second... and I think the Red Sox would actually go for that trade as well (but Manny would have to sign off on it... and I don't think he would).
I rely on results - they did a great job. Which is more likely - that they suddenly all perform worse than last year, or that they perform somewhere near last year? Glavine had the #14 ERA in the league last year - he's been great for a decade and has shown no signs of decline. He's no likely to get worse than Clemens or Pettite, especially since he's not a power pitcher. Seo has done nothing to show that he pitched over his head - he's a 3rd year pitcher who finally got his control problems resolved. Outside of the Astros' ridiculous rotation, St. Louis' if they stay together, and the Cubs if they ever stay healthy, who has a better rotation than the Mets? As for their bullpen - bullpens are the most random thing in MLB. A terrible bullpen can be changed to a star bullpen overnight. And yes, they are probably still crappy since middle relievers aren't premier free agents. They still have 4 months to change that, and middle relievers are always the last guys signed. Again, they don't have an Astros-type bullpen, but who does? What they lack in pitching, they make up for with an offense that has Beltran-Delgado-Floyd-Wright-Cameron (if he stays) in the middle of it, along with Reyes leading off, and maybe a decent offensive catcher.
While the bullpen did suck for them last year, they could've spent the money much more wisely. In fact, I'm surprised to see so little buzz going for Todd Jones. It looks like he could be had for anywhere between a quarter to a half of Wagner or Ryan's salary. With the money, you can get a setup man that has closer potential for insurance. After that, they would still have enough to get mid-rotation guy for depth. Even big spenders have budget, there are no excuses for fiscal irresponsibility.
Yeah, I'm more thinking from a perspective of the Red Sox not paying part of his contract. As for him wanting to come here, yeah, I think that's probably the biggest problem. He has, however, stated he wants to be in a smaller market. That's part of the reason he doesn't like Boston. And he's always been a great teammate. Even when he whined or requested trades and such, he's never had a problem with his fans or teammates, so I don't think that's a big concern. I'd make this move, with no hesitation, if Manny were interested and the Red Sox could eat some of his contract. But if we had the Mets' payroll flexibility, I'd want to do it even if they wouldn't.
You could fund an entire 5 man bullpen (minus the closer) for $10MM with high-quality talent across the board, if anyone was willing to be the 6th man in the bullpen - so financing a bullpen is not a big commitment. The problem is getting people to accept that kind of role. If you're good, you're going to want to be a set up guy so you can eventually get closer money. I'm not sure Todd Jones' is the best choice though. He had a great season last year, but he's never had a season like that before and has a long history of mediocrity in MLB. In 2003, he had an ERA of 4 and was absolutely terrible. http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/players/5082/career There are no excuses for fiscal irresponsibility, but if you believe you have a good team, there are good reasons for overpaying for that player that completes the team. Wagner does that. If they have Wagner last year instead of Looper, it's likely them in the playoffs instead of us.
Wouldn't something like this make Lidge more valuable for us? Toronto had a decent team last year and competed deeper into the season than many expected. Maybe Boston will feel the need to shore up their closer position and would eat up a big chunk of salary if we sent them Lidge for Manny. Move Qualls to the closer role. That would be awesome.
