Question for the brokers. I'm punching myself for waiting this one out. Since last week, it's jumped from ~$90 to $106.5 today. Even though their plant in St. Charles might take up to 2 weeks to repair, projections are that it could rise another 20% very soon. Is this is still a good buy at $106.50?
HERE's A HOT TIP ABOUT STOCK TIPS: DON'T LISTEN TO STOCK TIPS. DISCLAIMER: I know nothing about investing, stocks, socks, or clocks.
Never buy stock when it's rising, especially not at 106 per share. My financial advisor told me that once.
You understand how a split works, right? The P/E ratio stays exactly the same. I personally like stock splits, due to some buyers being able to buy round lots that they weren't able to before, but the value of the stock remains exactly the same. Personally, I don't follow Valero, so I'm not going to give any advice on it. Actually, I'd never give a "tip" on an individual stock. As I've told people before, if you want to gamble, go to Vegas. At least you get free drinks there. If you would like to research it, go to Yahoo finance. Or Big Charts.
I'm interested in it for the long-term. When my Dell stock split twice, it pretty much paid for my undergrad all by itself.
Just remember, your Dell stock could've gone into the crapper as well. Investing in one stock is not investing. It's gambling. Just be weary. A diversified portfolio is always the best way to build a nest egg.
I would say be wary of Valero right now. The take over of Premcor is finalizing in the next few weeks and once that happens I see a slight drop in value. Just my thoughts, so take them as just that.
I work at the Port Arthur - Premcor plant as a contractor often and recently. Valero bought Premcor in a deal that traded 1 share of Premcor for .622 shares of Valero. + about $29.00. The Port Arthur plant alone made a net profit of 140 mil in April. Earnings drive share price. As Premcor will contribute to earnings, the near term profits are helping drive this stock. Oil industry stocks will do well for the near future, but no way would I invest now. The market is overbought and will alwayus be volatile. I wish I had bought Premcor in Fall of 2003 in the IPO at $ 25.00 - that stock would be worth about $ 78.00 now in the Valero Purchase. Another potential benefir- as Valero bought a group of Diamond Shamrock stations - they have retail outlets now and can benefit mightily from that retail bonanza. Stay away from the oil stocks right now. Bad time to buy at the top of the market.
I've been riding this train for almost a year - chooo chooo! I'm waiting for a 6 figure increase. I can't believe some people short it. Day traders may make a few bucks here and there but as someone said, "Picking up pennies along the train track is very dangerous." Imagine the shorts yesterday...ooouch! Premcor deal should be finalized today - I don't think there is anything to stop them right now. After the finalization it should drop making that a good buy time. A split is coming up but timing is important. Let's be honest, there is some serious price gouging going on here and they don't need too much more attention. They estimate that EPS could be as high as $16 next year with the addition of PCO. That's obscene. But after the split, which should give it a little spike, I'd expect another drop - another good buy time. Long term, I don't see a better stock out there. They've got the fundimentals, the trend and the media - it's like a perfect storm. Their specialty is taking sour crude which is much less ($15-$20 a barrel less) than sweet crude which is running around $70 and turn the cheap oil into the same gas, heating oil, jet fuel, etc as the others. They saw this coming and invested in upgrades to the refineries so they can process the sour stuff - of which there is no shortage. Buy yes - this stock still has room to double your money in a year or 2. Buy today - probably not. Watch and wait for the right entry point. Edit: Some of the bad a broker probably won't tell you. 1) MTBE - There are some possible lawsuits coming from refineries using MTBE to make unleaded gas have the right octane. The government said they had to switch unleaded back in the 70s and there were only 2 ways to get the octane up, MTBE and ethynol. Since ethynol was more expensive to make and there wasn't enough, refineries used MTBE. The good news is VLO has a current plan in place to switch from MTBE to ethynol. The bad news is its take more energy and money to process sugar or corn into ethynol than its worth (ie less profits). They are one of the few refineries to start this process. 2) Hedge funds - I think from yesterday's volume (7x) and pop, that hedge funds have found their way back into VLO. And it's looks like they are not finished from this morning's pre-trades. Good news short term, but they aren't here to stay and when they start selling, look for a massive drop. Last April they pulled out and dropped it from high 70s to high 50s. That wasn't a fun ride. 3) Greehey - He's got the Midas touch but he's 70. He retired a few years back and they turned the company over to a man who about ran it into the ground. They got rid of him and brought Greehey back. He knows what he's doing and always seems to be 1 step ahead of the rest of the competition. But if he ever leaves, I'd give getting out some consideration.
If you want a thrill ride buy a little and put a stop under it so you won't get hurt too bad. You too can feel like a price gouging capitalist.
Up another 6 points this morning in just the first few minutes. Hedge funds are pushing this stock through the roof. But like an elephant that enters a pools, water comes gushing out, but once it decides to leave you've got a half empty pool.
Look at the trends and esentially, don't buy high...TXU is another that is at all-time high ($103 as of 9:30 a.m.), although, I don't get there BP or why the run-up, but good for them...
I believe VLO could be at 130 very easily, but you also gotta remember you are buying into hype and panic. if you are just trying to make a quick trade on VLO then that is fine just make sure you are ready to sell and have a stop set. Further be ready to take profits when the stock hits your profit target or pulls back farther than you are looking for. If you are looking to "invest" then wait. Buying into hype is never a good thing. Just because you missed VLO doesn't mean you need to compound the mistake by making a poor purchase since you are going to have a significantly higher cost basis. BTW I am not a broker...most broker's are just salesmen in the first place.
