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[USDA] USDA Forecasts Record High Corn Yield and Soybean Production for 2018

Discussion in 'BBS Hangout: Debate & Discussion' started by Os Trigonum, Aug 10, 2018.

  1. Os Trigonum

    Os Trigonum Member
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    https://www.nass.usda.gov/Newsroom/2018/08-10-2018.php

    USDA Forecasts Record High Corn Yield and Soybean Production for 2018
    WASHINGTON, August 10, 2018     – U.S. farmers are expected to produce a record-high soybean crop this year, according to the Crop Production report issued today by the USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service. Up 4 percent from 2017, soybean production is forecast at record high 4.59 billion bushels, while corn growers are expected to decrease their production slightly from last year, forecast at 14.6 billion bushels.

    Down 1 percent from last year, area for soybean harvest is forecast at 88.9 million acres with planted area for the nation estimated at 89.6 million acres, unchanged from the June estimate. Soybean yields are expected to average 51.6 bushels per acre, up 2.5 bushels from last year. Record soybean yields are expected in Alabama, Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Mississippi, Nebraska, Ohio, and Pennsylvania.

    Average corn yield is forecast at 178.4 bushels per acre, up 1.8 bushels from last year. If realized, this will be the highest yield on record for the United States. NASS forecasts record-high yields in Alabama, Illinois, Nebraska, Ohio, South Dakota and Tennessee. Acres planted to corn, at 89.1 million, remain unchanged from NASS’ June estimate but down 1 percent from 2017. As of July 29, 72 percent of this year’s corn crop was reported in good or excellent condition, 11 percentage points above the same time last year.

    Wheat production is forecast at 1.88 billion bushels, up 8 percent from 2017. Growers are expected to produce 1.19 billion bushels of winter wheat this year, down 6 percent from last year. Durum wheat production is forecast at 73.4 million bushels, up 34 percent from last year. All other spring wheat production is forecast at 614 million bushels, up 48 percent from 2017. Based on August 1 conditions, the U.S. all wheat yield is forecast at 47.4 bushels per acre, up 1.1 bushels from last year.

    Today’s report also included the first production forecast for U.S. cotton. NASS forecasts all cotton production at 19.2 million 480-pound bales, down 8 percent from last year. Yield is expected to average 911 pounds per harvested acre, up 6 pounds from last year.
    NASS interviewed approximately 21,600 producers across the country in preparation for this report. The agency also conducted field and lab measurements on corn, soybeans, wheat and cotton in the major producing states, which usually account for about 75 percent of the U.S. production. NASS is also gearing up to conduct its September Agricultural Survey, which will focus on wheat, barley, oats and rye growers. That survey will take place during the first two weeks of September.

    The Crop Production report is published monthly and is available online at www.nass.usda.gov.
    ###

    NASS is the federal statistical agency responsible for producing official data about U.S. agriculture and is committed to providing timely, accurate and useful statistics in service to U.S. agriculture.

    We invite you to provide occasional feedback on our products and services. Sign up at https://usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/MannUsda/register.do.​
     
    #1 Os Trigonum, Aug 10, 2018
  2. Invisible Fan

    Invisible Fan Member

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    https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-so...cord-crop-as-china-imposes-tariffs-1533920333
    U.S. Soybean Farmers Producing Record Crop as China Imposes Tariffs
    Huge harvest comes after the world’s biggest consumer of the oilseed puts up trade barriers
    U.S. soybean farmers are due for a record harvest, even as Chinese tariffs threaten demandfor the American oilseed.

    The U.S. Department of Agriculture forecast on Friday that U.S. soybean production in 2018-’19 would rise to an all-time high of 4.6 billion bushels, up from 4.4 billion bushels a year earlier and more than analysts expected. Soybean yields also are due to rise from the previous year.

    The larger bounty will contribute to a growing domestic surplus, the agency said, with stockpiles in 2018-’19 expected to climb to a record 785 million bushels, 80% above the same time a year earlier. Global soybean stocks also are due to increase, according to the USDA.

    “USDA is assuming the worst-case scenario for soybean trade amid the current trade war with China,” said Arlan Suderman, chief commodities economist at INTL FCStone. “It’s difficult to prove USDA wrong at this point when we really don’t know how it will play out.”

    Soybean futures for August tumbled 4.7% to $8.46 a bushel at the Chicago Board of Trade after Friday’s report. Prices fell to the lowest level in nearly a decade in July after China, the world’s largest consumer of soybeans, introduced tariffs of 25% on American crops.


    Hedge funds and other traders who earlier this year put their money on rising soybean prices are now betting that U.S. producers will struggle to stave off a price-crushing glut. Farmers planted more soybeans than corn this spring for the first time in 35 years, betting in part on a robust Chinese appetite for oilseed. China imports soybeans to squeeze for cooking oil and crush into feed for its pig herds.

    The agency expects U.S. soybean exports to fall in 2018-’19 from a year earlier, though analysts say American merchants might attract more interest from non-Chinese sources.

    Analysts pointed to a difficult path ahead for soybean prices after Friday’s report.

    “You’re going to have to have the tariffs situation resolved and our exports bounce back” in order for the soybean market to recover, said Don Roose, president of brokerage U.S. Commodities. The USDA would also have to reduce soybean yields before traders start to bet on higher prices.

    The USDA boosted its forecast for U.S. corn production, with record yields pushing the crop to 14.6 billion bushels. That will also translate into larger-than-expected supplies, and corn futures fell 3.1% after the report.

    It’s not all bad news for U.S. farmers, however. The agency expects global heatwaves to boost demand for American wheat, raising its projected exports for this year. Global supplies of wheat are due to shrink this year on the back of searing heat and drought in Europe. Wheat futures fell 3.1%.
     
    #2 Invisible Fan, Aug 10, 2018
    Nook and FranchiseBlade like this.
  3. Rocket River

    Rocket River Member

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    Lovely

    Rocket River
     
    #3 Rocket River, Aug 10, 2018
    Nook and Amiga like this.
  4. Sweet Lou 4 2

    Sweet Lou 4 2 Member

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    This is great news if you are vegan.
     
    #4 Sweet Lou 4 2, Aug 11, 2018
  5. Deckard

    Deckard Blade Runner
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    I was wondering why Os posted news about crop yields in D&D, and then Invisible Fan posted the obvious "D&D worthy" reply. Fascinating. I can easily imagine some "farm state" voters, and voters in states that have industries producing farming equipment, wondering why in the hell they voted for trump and why the fellow lied to them, as well as wondering why Mr. trump started this completely unnecessary trade war the country suddenly finds itself in.
     
    #5 Deckard, Aug 11, 2018
    Nook and Os Trigonum like this.
  6. Amiga

    Amiga Member

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    Best of time, worst of time... all within a year period.
     
    #6 Amiga, Aug 11, 2018
  7. fchowd0311

    fchowd0311 Member

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    Is Os Trigonom a news bot?
     
    #7 fchowd0311, Aug 11, 2018
  8. conquistador#11

    conquistador#11 Member

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    Looks like China will be getting their entire stash from the brasilian comrades, which they almost already do. The U.S is their 2nd supplier of soybeans. I will support the everyday farmers, as my household is big on Morningstar and boca products made from soy protein isolate. They're delicious except the sausage links.

    If Trump can get the euros to consume more soybean products then he should definitely be awarded with the golden bun award by PETA. Switzerland comes in as the first european country to even be ranked for soy bean consumption, No. 47th, from the U.S Department of Agriculture.
     
    #8 conquistador#11, Aug 11, 2018
    da_juice likes this.
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