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Updated Payroll Status - No reason to not keep Correa...

Discussion in 'Houston Astros' started by Landry's Tooth, Jul 20, 2021.

  1. MoMobley

    MoMobley Member

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  2. The Beard

    The Beard Contributing Member

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    Not sure where the point is, but at some point this slump is going to cost him money

    Right now Altuve, Brantley, Yuli, Alvarez, Tucker all have higher season long OPS than Carlos.

    Yes he is one hit streak from climbing that ladder, but this slump is starting to get long enough to drop his numbers down a notch if he don’t get it together soon
     
  3. Snake Diggit

    Snake Diggit Member

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    I think he’s made himself money this season no matter what happens from here. But he has cooled off and it looks like he’ll end up with a season similar to his 2016-2017 years, which is a really, really good player who will probably get $200M. He needs to turn it back on the rest of the way if he is going to have a year that showcases a new ceiling and puts him in conversations for $250M or even $300M+.
     
  4. Major

    Major Member

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    LOL. So he has to accept way below his market value if he loves the team? Does that apply to everyone? If you love your job and your boss asks you to get paid less than you deserve just because he wants to save some money, are you disloyal if you don't take it?
     
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  5. Major

    Major Member

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    I don't think business owners are making $50 or $100MM decisions based on a couple of months of data. Him having a hot month or two is simply not going to change his 10-yr value by 50%. A slump, a hot streak, or a freak injury aren't going to impact him much at much - the main thing that would is a recurrence of a chronic injury that gives people more reason to question the risk/reward. But I imagine most teams already have an expectation of what they will get from him if healthy.
     
  6. Snake Diggit

    Snake Diggit Member

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    This season most certainly has a major impact on his value and yes the potential swing between best and worst case for his next contract was >50%. He came into the season with a range between $150M (if he sucked or suffered a serious injury) and $300M (if he had a healthy 8+ war season). Teams put a lot of weight on the most recent data they have (over a certain sample size, roughly starting around 200 pa or 50 games). His performance so far makes it pretty likely he’s going to get $200M even if he sucks or has a nagging injury the rest of the way. You may be right that his performance from Aug-Oct won’t be a potential $100M swing, but for sure there’s $50M+ at stake between his best and worst case outcome.
     
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  7. The Beard

    The Beard Contributing Member

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    I think this is true to an extent

    But if his one season where he stayed healthy is a .900 OPS season vs say a .790 OPS season…and that offseason also comes with multiple star level SS available…it’s gonna have an impact

    I love Carlos and want him back, but before this terrible stretch he was looking like he was going to have by far the best season of his career, and without a doubt having THAT kind of season heading into free agency would add a lot of cash
     
  8. Hank McDowell

    Hank McDowell Member

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    I’d love to have him back, but not at the crazy money that he’s going to want and will probably still get. Like a lot of other people, I’m wondering if the back is giving him problems again and he’s trying to hide it.
     
  9. rockbox

    rockbox Contributing Member
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    Not with the kind of defensive plays he made last night. He has always been a streaky hitter. What makes him amazing is that the hot streaks tend to be during the playoffs.
     
  10. studogg

    studogg Contributing Member
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    From a contract perspective, GMs are more focused on his health this year over his stats (considering performance on par with prior play). His age, position, experience, and skill set is what they are buying.
     
  11. Hemingway

    Hemingway Member

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    I look at this quite differently. I think there is little chance the Astros would go 10 years or even 7 years at 30 million, but say, just for grins, that Carlos would take 25m over 7 years. I would still decline, because that money could be used for 2 extremely effective players. It looks like we have two really good shortstop prospects in Leon and Perez. I would rather spend the money on two positions of priority, CF and the potential need to replace Yuli and Brantley. We also are going to have to pay Tucker and Alvarez some real money in a few years. Carlos is great, but he is still a greater than average injury concern. I wonder if the Mets are regretting their decision on Lindor?
     
  12. vince

    vince Member

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    I like Carlos Correa, he’s an amazing talent. But i still don’t think he’s a legit 1A option. I see him as a 1c option. He WILL carry a team on his back for stretches of the season, but it’s more in bursts; though he will be above average for other portions. He’s a good player, but if he’s the best player on the team, the team is sniffing mid-tier-level well outside the playoff picture.

    Astros must tread lightly on the moves they make. Because the young guys coming up will also be due huge pay raises. But at the same time you have to keep the team culture that is in tune with winning.

    Tough choice that aren’t about the money, but about the winning culture that has been created. That is the choice here.

    Snake diggit lays it out perfectly. Opportunity cost, with any choice taken here on out!
     
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  13. chievous minniefield

    chievous minniefield Contributing Member

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    One has to think the way the Springer thing has played out will impact the club’s thinking.

    I love George Springer, my favorite Astro ever.

    But thus far, not paying him was the right choice. I hate it. But it was.

    So there is already a precedent of not paying the market value and keeping right on ticking. You could extend that back to Keuchel as well.

    Correa has been a terrific Astro. He will spend the rest of his career as a contract burden and probably not anywhere near as happy as he was here. Especially if he ends up in the Bronx, where that fanbase will turn on him mercilessly at the first opportunity.

    It’s a shame if they can’t find a middle ground, but I think they’re just too far apart.

    Anyway, just saying the club has recent data influencing this decision. And let’s be honest, in many ways, letting George go was harder.
     
  14. Nick

    Nick Contributing Member

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    So, never keep a player past their arbitration years? That’s exactly how the bottom feeders of the league operate… sure, they maintain competitiveness (A’s, Rays), but its a very hard way to both win championships and foster a brand to a fan base.

    In all of those contracts, yes you’re going to end up paying for past performance… but there are still some prime years before one’s 30th birthday that you are likely getting market value for.
     
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  15. The Beard

    The Beard Contributing Member

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    Here is the deal though

    Is his incredible playoff performances just the luck of being hot at the right time

    OR

    Is he a guy that performs on the biggest stages

    If the Astros (or any team for that matter) believes it is the former, then this slump costs him more

    If a team believes he is “clutch” or whatever term you want to use, he just needs to stay healthy to hit the jackpot

    Obviously that is an unrealistically simplistic version of reality…but that’s a huge part of the equation teams will be weighing
     
  16. BigM

    BigM Contributing Member

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    I guess I don’t understand this comment. The best player(Trout) in baseball basically never sniffs the playoffs and he’s as 1a as you get. One guy in baseball has by far the lowest impact of any of the major sports. Or is it that a team can’t make Correa the highest paid player on their roster and still be competitive? The highest paid Astro hasn’t played in 2 years and we’re still championship level competitive. I wouldn’t advocate for a 10yr/300m contract but you can certainly pay Correa quite a bit and be competitive. Really makes no difference if he’s your best player or not.
     
  17. vince

    vince Member

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    I think the 1A option is the guy that sets the tempo, he’s the guy who has the ability to put the team on his back for extended periods, the guy who epitomizes the team culture, the guy who leads by example. Someone who can talk the talk and walk the walk.

    i feel that Altuve is that 1A guy for the Astros. He’s a guy who’s not so big that he casts shadows over his teammates, to the point they feel under appreciated.

    Carlos is a super talented guy, but I do not think he is the engine of the team. Of course talents like him aren’t found easily, so replacing him will hurt, but as Snake diggit said, it Pay Carlos or pay guys like Tucker, Alvarez, Valdez, etc….


    Trout is a phenomenon talent wise. But how much does that carry over to his teammates? He plays along side the babe Ruth of the modem era, but the Angels aren’t hitting on all cylinders.

    But I will be sad to see Carlos go if the Astros don’t resign him; but I am hoping Carlos Correa can give the Astros a hometown discount of sorts. But you can’t mortgage the future for Correa!
     
  18. white lightning

    white lightning Contributing Member

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    Springer and Correa seemed to be the team leaders. I wonder who will take over next- Altuve seems like a quieter lead by example guy, so I would think it would be Bregman.
     

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