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Unreasonable Optimism

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by mikenm268, Oct 4, 2022.

  1. dmoneybangbang

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    I’m excited for the season but I don’t think the Rockets will “be good” or be a .500 team.
     
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  2. Haymitch

    Haymitch Custom Title
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    Here is a pessimism post. This is not really what I think, but it's not entirely unreasonable.

    KPJ - he's just not a starting caliber guard and never will be.
    Nix - not an NBA player.
    TyTy - "jack of all trades, master of none" players never succeed.
    Jalen - his scoring isn't as reliable as we want it to be and he's a defensive sieve.
    Christopher - thinks he's an alpha when he never will be. Ball-stopper who kills the team's rhythm.
    Mathews - he had a hot streak for part of last season and that will be the highlight of his career.
    EGo - his contract is worse than we think it is and no one will give up a decent draft pick for him.
    Tate - he secretly wants out, he should be traded, but he'll keep getting minutes because he plays hard. It won't lead to anything or anywhere and will just frustrate everyone.
    Tari - he shot unexpectedly well in summer league and there's a 0% chance that will continue. Also his lack of a left hand will become a problem soon.
    Jabari - doesn't possess the handles to be anything on offense other than CnS guy. On defense, he does reasonably well, but as a PF he can't have the impact of either a C or a point of attack defender.
    KMJ - hasn't progressed since he joined the league. Still the size of a 3 with the offensive game of a 5. On defense, he's bad outside of 5-6 weakside blocks per year.
    Sengun - too many fouls and turnovers. Will allow opponents a layup line at the rim.
    Bruno - he's a 3rd string "high energy" C at best.
    Garuba - what is even the point
     
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  3. DaDakota

    DaDakota Green and KPJ are both COMBO guards
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    LOL - tell that to Magic Johnson.

    DD
     
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  4. Verbal Christ

    Verbal Christ Member

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    So who is our Kareem Abdul Jabbar?
     
  5. MystikArkitect

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    Agreed. I watched the Pistons and Magic, who are supposed to be our main competition in terms of gauging our rebuild, and the Rockets just look light years ahead of both of those teams from a talent standpoint. "It's just the Spurs" is an interesting way of looking at a team that was a play-in team coached by the goat coach. The Magic folk are basically in panic mode saying "just wait till Franz returns" which would be the Rockets equivalent of saying "Well remember Jaesean Tate didnt play". The Rockets guards didn't even play well and we still drummed them by 30.

    It just feels different with this team and it's felt different this summer. The Raptors game is going to be a much better barometer for where this team actually is. Nick Nurse knows the Rockets are a young and talented team. He made it his point to halt Jalen's streak last year. I think if the Rockets can keep pace with the Raptors, we'll know whether or not this is a team that's going to take a step forward or be planning for that 5-8 pick in the 1st round. At no point did the Rockets last year *ever* look like they looked against the Spurs. We had our fair share of outlier games where the kids played awesome (Lakers) but we all knew it was just fun and games. I'm more on the optimism side than the pessimism side of things, but we'll see.
     
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  6. conquistador#11

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    People are underestimating how much replacing someone that gave little effort on the other end of the floor with someone who wants to be great defensively can change the atmosphere in that locker room. I'm not saying a 30 game improvement but it sets the tone for everyone to be a part of it.
     
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  7. JayGoogle

    JayGoogle Member

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    I think people are underestimating how good other teams are lol...

    I do think we will look improved though, replacing Wood with a player that wants to play defense and isn't so selfish will help with that. Sengun improving will also help a ton and him seeing more usage and more meaningful minutes is going to help a lot.

    I think we'll be good enough that we will need some luck to draft top 3 this year with the new lotto rules.

    Ask me right now I'm on team Scoot because Wemby's body worries me.
     
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  8. jordnnnn

    jordnnnn Member

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    I think I’m being nearly unreasonable with my optimism of thinking we can add 6ish wins to the 20 we got last year even though we have gotten younger and could still possibly get even younger with a Gordon trade. I see the path where this rebuild turns out fantastic, but the likelihood of a jump this season as big as some are talking about is so, so small.

    There’s optimism and then there’s delusion.
     
  9. javal_lon

    javal_lon Member

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    DD is a ultra knowledgeable delusionalist ... lol
     
  10. SamFisher

    SamFisher Virtuous

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    The Rockets will be better because Spurs, Jazz and probably OKC are all actively trying to be worse, I also think other teams that are fringey now but maybe have the bottom fall out (Charlotte if Lamelo goes down, e.g,) are a possiblity to join the Wembytank brigade.
     
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  11. daywalker02

    daywalker02 Easter Egg Hunter - Tell me why? نحن عائلة

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    We know little about other teams but one thing is for sure.

    Their vets are winning them games.
     
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  12. mac_got_this

    mac_got_this Member

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    Magic Johnson was generational MCW in a lifetime type of player. He had unique skillset especially during his time . Think about what you’re saying and projecting.
     
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  13. saleem

    saleem Contributing Member

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    30 wins is the maximum that they can reach in my opinion and that won't be easy. Tate, Sengun and Garuba can't shoot the 3 ball well.
    Nix and TyTy have to step up as backup point guards.
     
  14. gifford1967

    gifford1967 Contributing Member
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    I think we're going to significantly out-perform conventional wisdom. I'd say wins in the mid to high 30's.

    The reasons in a rough hierarchy:

    Getting rid of Wood- This is the definition of addition by subtraction. It is hard to overstate what an anchor he was last year, on offense/defense and psychologically. Demanding the ball, slipping screens, slowing everything down, no defensive effort. That **** drags a team down. And when the guy doing it is a relative vet on a very young team and arguably your best athlete, it's deadly.

    Addition of Jabari Smith/Lionel Hollins- Developing a defensive culture is so important. Bringing in a top draft pick who is this good on defense and an assistant coach who will demand defensive effort across the board will pay huge dividends. Jabari's offense will be gravy, compared to this.

    KPJ in a contract year- It's certainly possible that KPJ has made real, sustainable progress in his mental health/attitude. I hope so, but I'm skeptical. However, even if he hasn't, playing in a contract year is probably a big enough external incentive to generate the most productive year of KPJ's career, with minimal distracting behavior.

    Jalen Green- His trajectory last year, combined with what appears to be a stellar attitude, is so exciting. His scoring ability is undeniable, but what really impressed me in the Spurs game was his decision-making. He was making smart, effective passes, instead of just trying to rack up individual stats. So refreshing.

    League expectations- We've been at the bottom for two years straight. I think at the beginning of the year teams are going to check Rockets games off on the calendar as easy wins. And then they are going run into a buzz saw. They are going to be a little shocked and resent the effort they have to exert to beat such a young, unproven team. We'll get a few surprise wins this way.
     
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  15. lakersuck2

    lakersuck2 Member

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    Nahh don't worry about it I'm not calling you out specifically. You seem chill and I enjoy your optimism. I'm actually feeling a bit optimistic too. That's more of an open callout to the toxic people who have been doing those things for years.
     
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  16. xiki

    xiki Contributing Member

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    Kareem was still the alpha that first season; but your point is taken.
     
  17. ROCK3TM4N

    ROCK3TM4N Member

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    Unless he’s MIchael Jordan lol
     
  18. DaDakota

    DaDakota Green and KPJ are both COMBO guards
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    I am making the point that ROOKIES can be leaders....

    Magic
    Bird
    Hakeem
    Iverson
    Lebron

    If you get a generational talent, they can lead.....I am hoping that Jabari is that guy.

    DD
     
  19. Phillyrocket

    Phillyrocket Member

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    This right here. We scored plenty last year but couldn’t stop anyone locksmith alone is going to change that.

    It wouldn’t surprise me to be either bottom 5 team or make the play in. But to make the play in we would need Green to become a top 25ish go to clutch scorer, the defense to be around top 10, and Jabari to hit his 3s at like 38% on high volume.

    I don’t see it happening yet and that’s ok.

    One more top pick, trade Gordon/Favors and Brooklyn picks for a disgruntled star, and sign Wiggins or Middleton in FA next summer. Then we are ready to contend.
     
    conquistador#11 and DaDakota like this.
  20. backwardhead

    backwardhead Member

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    First, I think the next two preseason games are going to give us a real look at what we've got here. It'll be interesting to see where this thread goes after those two games.

    @mikenm268 I feel you, but here's where I am now: I think we are going to make the Vegas books A LOT OF MONEY!

    Here's what I mean. I don't expect us to win enough in the West to even compete for a play in spot. What I do expect is us to outperform how the rest of the league perceives us and believe that we will be in a lot of close games.

    I'm optimistic that I can watch every game this year and get excited for what's going to happen. There's no CWood, and say what you want about Silas, we've got Lionel Hollins on the bench. What I saw against the Spurs, and what I'm hearing from media who are at the facility, is that this team is making defense the priority. If this is true, and they can get themselves into the top half of the league defensively, we can look forward to being a pain in a lot of a$$e$.

    I'm bearish on the playoffs but bullish being in a lot of close games! (Not sure what the bulls and bears actually have to do with anything but it's in the air I guess) :)
     
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