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Unlike the Astros, don't settle for staying competitive

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by The Cat, Jun 29, 2009.

  1. The Cat

    The Cat Member

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    I think it's safe to say we've reached a crossroads.

    The one thing I think we should all remember is that the ultimate goal is to win championships. It's not to compete, sneak into the playoffs and look for a favorable matchup to steal a series. It's to put together a team as soon as possible that can legitimately win four seven-game series. I'm pretty sure Daryl Morey takes this approach, but I think some fans need a reminder of that as they judge his moves going forward.

    It's a different sport, but the perfect example of what not to do is just a few blocks away at MMP. For years, the Astros have either needed to rebuild, or for McLane to pull a Steinbrenner and literally go all-in. They've done neither, instead trying to patch holes, hang around .500 and sneak into the playoffs by getting hot in September. Is it impossible to eventually win a title this way? No, of course (with proper scouting) you can eventually acquire enough young assets to contend without dealing your stars and without having high draft picks. But it definitely takes longer, and that's especially the case in the star-driven NBA.

    I think we all wondered last week why the Rockets didn't top the Magic and Spurs' offers for Carter and Jefferson, given that the Rockets had the contractual (and young) assets to make it happen. Some accused Morey of beign lazy, which of course is far from the truth. My speculation was that Morey had a better deal in waiting.

    The reality, unfortunately, is this: if Yao isn't coming back, the absolutely worst thing the Rockets could do would be to trade the assets they have for a Vince Carter (or someone like him) with 2-3 years left in his prime. Without Yao, the Rockets aren't a contender in that timeframe. Sorry. Now, could they go out and get a middle-aged star and compete, the way they did in the final four games with the Lakers? Sure. They might could get as high as a No. 5 or 6 seed in the playoffs. But they're not going to win a title that way, and all you're doing is making the inevitable rebuilding process longer and more difficult.

    Now, I'm not advocating tanking, and I'm not saying the Rockets can't or shouldn't make the playoffs. What I'm saying is they shouldn't go out of their way to trade what few major assets they have to achieve a minimal, short-term goal.

    And make no mistake, the Rockets still have assets. McGrady's expiring contract, and maybe even Yao's expiring contract, still have lots of value. But the focus of what to do with those assets has to be different. Don't try and patch the hole by signing Gortat to a long MLE deal, overpaying for Artest, or trading Tracy for a Vince Carter-type just to stay competitive.

    Think title, not merely staying afloat. In an unfortunate scenario like this, the best move to win a championship ASAP might mean a short-term step backward in some situations (as Battier/Brooks for Rubio would have). We can't look at the rest of this offseason through the same lens we did a week ago.
     
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  2. The_Yoyo

    The_Yoyo Member

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    Nicely put


    some of us lived through the Cat and Francis years as Rockets Fans and would rather have a team with a bright young future (a la OKC Thunder, Blazers) instead of a good but not great team (Hawks, Mavs, Hornets, Sixers)

    I have a feeling because of the shrewd planning by Morey that the Rockets wont be down for too long
     
  3. mic

    mic Member

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    I wholeheartedly agree. I don't think we should necessarily tank, but we've got to seriously rebuild.
     
  4. DrNuegebauer

    DrNuegebauer Member

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    :confused:

    So if the Rockets want a deal to happen here we just have to speak up??

    :confused:

    (i) I'm not convinced that Morey wanted either Carter or Jefferson in exchange for McGrady's insured contract. What would be the point in messing up cap space for years only to add a good swingman who may or may not be any more effective than Artest (who we could simply re-sign).

    (ii) it's actually possible that NJ liked the relief they got from the Spurs, and the assets they got from the Magic more than what we could offer.

    Having said that, I agree that we don't want to limp around HOWEVER I don't believe in tanking. It rarely ever works - teams get stuck in the cycle of the lottery. If we're not good enough to make the playoffs, fine - but a club MUST instill a culture of playing hard and attempting to win. Aim high and then let a clever GM maximise the assets generated from a winning season to improve/ add the crucial peice.
     
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  5. Raven

    Raven Member

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    Hate to say it, but if the Rockets can land a legitimate top ten player then their sole focus should be tanking for the lottery and also clearing cap space, and I don't care how many regular season games they win in 2009/2010 if I know what the eventual outcome is going to be.

    I am sick of being the team no one wants to meet in the playoffs. I'd rather be the team that wins a Championship.
     
  6. Hayesfan

    Hayesfan Member

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    ditto what yoyo said...

    sadly I have the same issue :)

    They were just discussing this about the Reds this year, on whether they should throw money and some of the great talent they are grooming in the farm system and go all in this season, or continue to build with the plan that they have in place.

    I say stick to the plan.

    In Morey (and Walt Jocketty) I trust.
     
  7. emjohn

    emjohn Member

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    Fully agree. It's incredibly rare to trade for a franchise fixture or to sign them away from a team. The only reliable way to establish a new era is by the draft. The bad news is that you have to pray that the right guy falls into your lap by luck as well.

    It's not just about tanking - look at how well that's worked for Memphis, or the 90s Celtics.


    I'd advocate making trades designed to stockpile draft picks. Take bad contracts off the hands of small market teams in exchange for one of our better value guys and take back picks. This is almost exactly what Sam Presti did with the Thunder, and they're quickly becoming a nice young team.

    Lets just be sure and learn from the Cat & Francis era
     
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  8. mikol13

    mikol13 Protector of the Realm
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    I agree with you completely. Well said. If we rebuild I think we trade not for aging stars but hopefully young promising talent. After the initial shock of all this, a part of me is kind of excited. Am I happy? no. I love Yao and all that he stands for. I think we are about to find out just how good Morey is in the next couple years. I love and believe in this orginization. So lets get started
     
  9. The Cat

    The Cat Member

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    I didn't think I said or implied in any way that the opinions of the BBS had any correlation with what the Rockets do -- obviously, that's ridiculous. There's nothing we can do to influence personnel. I was just saying, from a fan/analysis standpoint, that we should judge Morey's moves by a very different set of criteria than we might have a few days ago. That's all.
     
  10. vinsensual

    vinsensual Member

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    Think how the GARM would be if the Rockets 09-10 started like the current Astros season
     
  11. TheGreat

    TheGreat Member

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    I would rather go DOWN by COMPETING.

    I would NEVER love to see my team go down TANKING.
     
  12. Gimmmethemike

    Gimmmethemike Member

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    Tank already! Stack up on some draft picks...
     
  13. Batman Jones

    Batman Jones Member

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    Nice post, The Cat. When I first heard the news, I remained cautiously optimistic about adding a few pieces to our core and staying competitive, but your post has swayed me. Good argument, if depressing.

    I guess the one consolation prize is that we'll get to see Morey pretty much build the team from scratch. I have a lot of faith in him so it will be interesting to see what he does.
     
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  14. rhester

    rhester Member

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    I agree!

    Morey has to have a new strategy for building a championship team. No quick fixes PLEASE.

    I think we could start with Scola and Brooks.

    We need to pick up draft picks.

    Most importantly we must be very careful with the free agent market.

    One or two poor signings can ruin everything.

    As bad as it is we must not jump after free agents. We need to be very good right now developing young players. We need to win every trade we make and we need to be very cautious with how we spend any money on free agents.

    It is sad but the fastest path to the championship for us will be through Morey drafting very well and us rebuilding within a 2-4 year time frame.

    If we were to hit it big in 2010 with a very good free agent signing then of course there could be a faster rebuild, but I sure wouldn't try and take that strategy, it is way too risky.
     
  15. napalm06

    napalm06 Huge Flopping Fan

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    I disagree that we can't be a contender without Yao, as some have expressed.

    Still, I agree with the OP's sentiments. The Astros are a great analogy.
     
  16. wallyj12

    wallyj12 Member

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    Thats not what he's say here and I agree 100% with what the OP has said. No matter who is on the court for the Rockets next year or any year I want them to play as hard as they can every single night they step out there. But the KEY to giving us the best possibility of forming a truly championship worthy ball club for years is to not try and stop this massive bleeding we have going on here right now by taking on extended high priced contracts of aging stars (great example like he said: Vince Carter) through trade and signing average/mediocre players to long term over priced contracts (hell, I'm OK with not resigning Artest at this point if he wants a boat load of money) that will tie up salary cap space. T-Mac is a free agent after this year, and apparently Yao has a player option as well. If the reports are true and Yao is facing the possibility of retirement, by having T-Mac AND Yao come off the books for that summer of 2010 will give us the best possibility of attracting the new cornerstones of our team with that large cap space.
     
  17. rhester

    rhester Member

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    Tanking is not a good word.

    We have to be very smart and rebuild the right way. Of course we are going to be in the lottery. But we also need to look for ways to acquire picks.

    I believe strongly that rebuilding effectively depends upon excellent drafting.

    Unless you get on of the top players in free agency- Wade, Lebron, etc
    That is very unlikely and if you make moves based upon landing one of the top 2-3 players you are playing a huge risk.
     
  18. Honey Bear

    Honey Bear Member

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    The thing about baseball fans outside of the major markets -- they are more interested in the nuances and intricacies of the game (as well as statistics) than actual wins. So the Astros can get away with being primed for mediocrity when they overachieve.


    However, this team will still maintain it's defensive identity and with a coach like Rick Adelman they are bound to overachieve. I don't think it's realistic to think the Rockets will have a chance at a top 5 or even top 10 pick next year. It's best to "rebuild" through free agency, assets from the draft and trades than expect the Rockets to tank a season with all the talent they have and land John Wall.
     
  19. rocketsregle

    rocketsregle Member

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    I said in the main thread that we need to stop with the Drayton McLane mentality. Get away from bandages (Amare) and rebuild. Go into the lottery and stop getting late draft picks just for the sake of getting into the playoffs with no chance in winning the trophy. That is so short sighted and I want a change from that line of thinking. So I whole heartedly agree with you Cat. This is coming from someone who actually pays money to see the team and has invested in next season.
     
  20. thacabbage

    thacabbage Contributing Member

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    Great post. Unfortunately the majority of kids here are too naive or myopic to grasp what should be fairly axiomatic, hence, the only thing more frustrating than this news itself - the thousands of posts clamoring for assorted center options and stop-gap contingencies.

    Luckily it's fairly clear Morey knows what he's doing with this, thus the Battier-Rubio rumors.
     
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