Unemployment rate jumps to 5.5 percent in May, biggest rise since 1986; payrolls cut

The economy totally goes to hell as soon as Obama gets the nomination...coincidence?

 

I think not.

I suspect there's been a lot of effort put forth to try and prop things up between now and Nov. to give McCain a chance. As the fundamentals begin to worsen significantly and the players accept the fact that Obama will probably win, there will be less incentive to make things look OK.

It's going to be a tough job for any President, but especially Obama, as the Repubs will try and pin stuff on him that started during this administration. I think his first two years will be extremely tough with as many significant issues as most Presidents face in 8 years. All the more reason for Dems not to get complacent about November... January is when the real work begins.

On another note, I noticed somewhere you were coming out for McCain in spite of all the problems with the current administration. I can understand the appeal of McCain, but if you take a cold-hearted look at what has happened over the last 8 years you'll see that Bush couldn't have screwed things up this much all by himself. He had lots of help at many levels of government. McCain may change the tenor of the WH, but he will end up depending on many of the same people to run (or not) the government. If he wins and that happens, it just makes them more oligarchical and the Republican Party moves further from its roots.

If you are concerned at all with where the Republican Party is today, I don't really see any other option but to blow it up and start over... that's the only real way the people responsible for the current travesty will never get close to power again.

It's certainly not unprecedented in out history... the Dems most recently blew their party up over Civil Rights. I consider the Constitutional issues raised by this administration and supported by the Republican Congress to be of sufficient gravity that a similar response is worthy.

Thoughts?

 

rimmy-
What a way to start a Saturday. Here goes...

I really believe that Wall Street does not like Obama. I believe that if it appears that Obama will win, things on the Street will get worse. Take that for what it is worth...nothing. It's just my hunch.

Notably...Congress.

I seriously doubt it. Should McCain win, I think he is smart enough to know that there has to be a house cleaning of sorts. I would expect him to put in a whole new set of people.

I believe that McCain is the guy, if elected, that will move the party back toward the center. He will bring the party back to its roots.

I believe that John McCain is the guy to do this. At 72 years old, with his life history, he doesn't give a damn about what these people think. I can't honestly think of anybody plausible who could bridge a transition better.

I believe that John McCain is running to the right in order to win their support. I believe that once in office, he will again become the maverick we know and love. At 72, I doubt he is going to be worried about running for re-election in 4 years. Besides, four years is plenty of time for the far right to fall into line with the new party leadership.

This is one thing I love about this election. Two guys that I believe would be an agent for change. I just trust the maverick a little more.

 

wall street is not the economy. things got worse on wall street because oil prices jumped $10 in one day. that might have something to do with it.

 

Sure it does. There is also the argument that people were selling off stocks to purchase commodities (ie oil). That could explain it also.

 

I think that's what we're both saying.

All Congress did was fail to provide oversight and pass everything the administration asked for. They didn't gin up specious reasoning in support of terror or domestic spying. They didn't issue signing statements. They didn't award no-bid contracts. They didn't hire inexperienced people to run Iraq. Or Katrina, etc. There were not Congressmen in thousands of polling places during the 2004 voting challenging the legitimacy of Americans to exercise the franchise.

I would feel a lot better about these points if I didn't see the same people running his campaign. A campaign is where you get new people and fresh blood. If he wins, he turns around and the only people in the room are the same ones who worked for W.

 

This statement makes no sense. Less jobs = more oil demand? Less subsidies = more demand? huh?

 

Obama has trounced all candidates, including the New York state senator, on raising money from W. St. Anyway let's examine a "the markets hate Obama" rationnalization

 

I'm not sure about this - he's had a lot of support from Wall Street, even before he became the frontrunner. I believe in 2007 (and 2008 - but a lot of that is frontrunner money), he raised more money from Wall Street than any other Dem or GOP candidate. I do think the tax policies are a concern to Wall Street. But I think that's only the most obvious of the issues. His policy team is very centrist and recognize the need for balance (see the Audacity of Data article I've posted a couple of times). Health care costs are spiraling out of control for businesses and they represent a huge uncertainty - finally resolving that one way or another could provide more stability for business. The huge deficits raise the cost of capital for business because they are competing with the government for investment money, so in that regard, raising taxes has some potential side benefits (I think we saw this in the 1990s to some extent). A quicker resolution to Iraq also reduces the debt, for example, and could work to reduce some global tensions. So there's a lot of secondary things to consider, and I think that's why you see mixed support from Wall Street.

I totally agree on this - it's the main reason I'm excited about this race. While I obviously prefer Obama, I would be perfectly content if McCain wins. I also think he's less right-wing than he's acting right now, though I know many people disagree. I'm curious what direction his campaign goes from here though - does he move back to the center, or does he stay with the right and try to win that way.

 

Good afternoon, Sam. I hope you are having a great day. I agree that it's silly to think that looking at stock market performance after primaries will tell you much about how the market views a candidate. However, it is my belief that Obama's tax hikes and weak stance on free trade will be quite detrimental to not only the economy, but also the stock market.