Ukraine

Please stop with the propaganda. Putin isnt going to nuke anyone. He voluntarily withdrew his forces from Kherson and Lyman without issues. He could've tested a nuke or some other sort of esclation but he took the L and withdrew. I dont buy this notion for one minute that Putin is going nuke ukraine or any other country.

Trump winning a 2nd term would mean he would eliminate all of bidens green energy subsidies. If you think climate change is one of the biggest threats to mankind then Trump reversing all of BIdens legislation which hes promised to do will be devastating. Lets not forget about the right wing judges he would placate and he would have the ability to nominate a replacement for Alito and Thomas on the Supreme court.

 

… She is also the former Secretary of Commerce and also has been on the President’s Board on Jobs and Competitiveness. If I remember right she was approved overwhelmingly by democrats and republicans.

So she is certainly qualified for the job. Did she benefit for her support of Obama? Yeah. She supported his campaign financially, she introduced him to a number of political and financial heavy weights and he in turn asked her to be Commerce Secretary (which she rejected at first) and ultimately agreed and was overwhelmingly approved by vote.

Would Biden appoint her to this position if she hadn’t got on the ground floor with Obama and had money and connections to help him? Probably not- but it has always been the case in business and politics, to the victor go the spoils and Pritzker has ZERO scandals or even claims that she isn’t qualified for the job - so deal with it…. Someone has to do the job and it will be someone that the President knows and feels can do a good job - that is how the world works.

 

Russia attacked and invaded Ukraine. Ukrainians or Ukrainian supports celebrating the death of Russian soldiers that have invaded Ukraine and are trying to kill Ukrainians defending their homeland is absolutely fair game. It is very much a kill or be killed scenario and Russians are the ones invading a sovereign country.

Also it isn’t just Putin - he represents the Russian government and has had the support of the majority of Russians. Are there Russians that don’t support the war? Of course - there were German soldiers that fought in WWII that didn’t like the war - it’s just a fact of all wars.

You being up the failing of two leaders not being able to reach a compromise…. This is simple, Russia stops its invasion and occupation of Ukraine and the war ends… it is like having a shoot out with someone that breaks in your home and starts robbing you - you aren’t going to negotiate with them and offer them half the stuff in your home and your wife - you will defend your family and home if you can.

That doesn’t even get into the fact that Russia has proven to not be trust worthy- this isn’t their first invasion and occupation.

 

Space Ghost's world:

Guy A: I want all your money.
Guy B: I want to keep my money.

SG fair compromise: Guy B should give A half his money. Anything less is unreasonable.

 

@Nook Your example is very very flawed. The better example would've been if the robber has the owner of the house tied up while youre waiting for police to arrive. The robber tells you he'll let you free but he wants to take half of your things anyways. As the owner do you say goodbye to half your things and be thankful that youre alive or do you take a gamble and wait for police to come to rescue you?

You folks arent getting it that Trumps entire platform for 2024 is that he will end the war. Trump said today that he will stop ALL aid to ukraine cold turkey until Europe matches the US. Hes going to throw zelensky to Putin within a day if he wins and Americans wont care cuz gas will be cheaper. Trump has lots of grudges against the Europeans. Scholz endorsed biden the other week which you know pissed Trump off.

Your example makes no sense at all cuz you're not looking at the alternative. Take trump for his words. He will throw ukraine to Putin within a day of being sworn in.

 

Yeah, we do that with China and the CCP as well. Most here clearly distinguish CCP hate with Chinese hate, but it's very easy for people to discriminate when things like the Wuhan Flu are at our doorsteps.

It's very hard to explain how captive those states are. They're oppressed, yet able to make personal decisions or feel intense pride/nationalism for their country.

Kind of like us when traveling around the world and getting **** for Bush/Trump. Most of the hosts are conscientious enough to say they love Americans but disagree/hate the government, and the more they press, the more you feel they're personally disappointed with you.

I don't know. It's hard wired tribalistic tendencies subdued by education or culture....a hearts and minds kind of Science.

Frankly, if we didn't have a supply constraint with producing, sending, and using weapons and munitions, I'd think it's a very very cost effective endeavor compared to putting boots on the ground or upping the alert status of NATO to DEFCON 3.

This may very well be analogous to "Clinton : Balkan air strikes" , "Obama : Drone Strikes (it's personally vetted!)" ...."Biden : ?Proxy War?"

They are all hands-off solutions with unimaginable consequences where short term success achieved very desirable American objectives at the time. I'm still fine with that calculated risk as opposed to appeasement or Republican-style Shock N Awe chest thumping.

Putin ****ed up, plain and simple. Many his possible meta-goals (European gas monopoly, ending Ukraine's military rebuild, ending NATO encroachment) have reversed with the result of him turning into a scorched earth war-criminal with the hellbent goal of crushing Ukrainian spirit and resistance.

Biden/military established his "red lines" to Kremlin. I suspect whatever the heck happened in Syria/Wagner formed a tenouous protocol for engagement, and if we stick to it (as the Biden Admin fervently has outside of the president's slip of a regime change), then everyone in the US or Russia can sleep with Rock'em Sock'em Robots over Missile Command.

That might also be why we're seeing Zelensky act "off script" because he has to pay the personal bill for a war on attrition.

Fact is that we do have supply constraints, and the escalation of weapon types with what the West is providing Ukraine is only matched with the burn rate of munitions they have on hand. I don't know of the current timetable of when we "hit empty", where it threatens our capacity to fight 2+ fronts across the world, but let's say it's two years max.

What are the objectives until then?

• End the war as soon as humanely possible in order to prepare for Winter against China invading Taiwan. That means finding a win-condition where we can declare victory while also giving Ukraine a sustainable future moving forward. I think conceding Crimea/Sevastopol for guaranteeing Ukranian security plus pathway to EU membership is worthwhile. Z can talk resolute for bargaining purposes but is he/Ukraine personally okay with that? That also means deporting all the Russians in the "contested territories".
  
• Shore up the Western alliance's stagflating economies against a growing BRICS. BRICS currency sounds half-baked, but most of these attendees are aligned on using the group as a hedge against Dollar weakness or the weaponization of the Dollar system against any member state
• Hope that Putin dies peacefully (defenestration preferable) by that time? T&P

 

trump ended the north korean nuclear threat and now he'll end a war that's been going on for almost two years. his platform is "grift as much as possible in exchange of americans' insatiable thirst for culture wars and bad tv". he stops aid, china attacks & all the non-nuclear countries become nuclear and then the world ends. But at least the trumps will be out of jail and dems will be saaad

 

Elon and BTC to da moooon?

 

Trump ended the Korean nuclear threat? North Korea disarmed?

 

Trump seems to think so. And in the end isn’t that what’s most important?

 

Any peace agreement between Ukraine and Russia has to also include USA/NATO. Russia will need to pay reparations to Ukraine, in order for USA/NATO to ease economic sanctions over time, since Russia has proven under Putin to be untrustworthy in its international agreements.

Russian oil will not freely flow the day after a peace agreement is reached.

 

Except that Putin has threatened to use nukes and other WMD if he feels a Russia is threatened or things go really badly.

Your view of war is very odd. Russian forces retreated from Kherson because they were being defeated and not as some gesture of peace. He didn’t use a nuke there because it was a defeat but not one that would completely result in overall defeat. Biden and the west has been exceedingly cautious with arming Ukraine because of the fear that it could compel Russia to a much greater escalation.

I agree with you on all of that. That still doesn’t mean that what you propose is easy, likely or doesn’t lead to potentially other problems such as showing that the US will just change strategy and abandon allies if it causes economic pain.

 

And for a supporter of the last President who put his own children I charge of major foreign policy is beyond ironic.

 

The problem with this example is that with Ukraine the police are already there. Your example would make sense if it was the police telling the homeowner they should just compromise with the robber becaue the next police chief might be friends with the robber.

Either way your solution would be to still reward the robber.

It’s interesting how you take Trump at his word, which I agree he likely will at least try those things, but dont take Putin at his word when he himself has said that he doesn’t believe Ukraine is a country and that it belongs to Russia. Your argument would rely on believing that Putin doesn’t actually believe that but actually wants peace and could be trusted to make a peace deal. Nothing in Putin’s history indicates that.

 

I don’t rule out there could be a peace deal that is an exchange of Ukrainian land for security guarantees. We’re a long way from that.

One of the things I’ve been hammering is that the actual combatants are showing no interest in peace both are carrying out offensive actions and showing no signs of willingness to take steps towards peace. Even if the US lifts aid there is no indications that the Russians would just reciprocate by halting their actions or that the Ukrainians wouldn’t be willing to fight asymmetrically.

Unless the US and NATO is willing to send in tons of troops to actually enforce a peace there is no way we can compel the sides to make peace. That is even if Russia just doesn’t end up making it a much wider war.

Peace will only come when one or both sides realize they can’t get their goals in the battlefield. They aren’t there yet.

 

Its interesting how we are not "involved" in this war but at the same time Russia has to answer to us at the negotiation table?

The only country Russia has to negotiate with is Ukraine. And unless Russia is in dire need and is truly on the cusp of collapse, Putin will not negotiate. with NATO.

And Russian energy is free flowing, just not to the West.

 

* At a big discount that is making a mess of their economy and financial situation.

Weird statement to make given that you're the one that has suggested otherwise all throughout this thread.

 

Judoka is operating in fear of Putin nuking everyone. You are operating in fear of "what about Trump in 2025?!" Ukraine is going to look entirely different in November 2024, in ways that no one can predict. Ukraine could have won, be on the verge of winning, in a stalemate, losing ground, or have completely collapsed by that point. Worrying about what Trump says he's going to do about it or what polling shows people want based on where the war today is not remotely going to be relevant to what the world looks like when the election comes around. Trump and/or Biden may not even be the nominees at this point next year. Or Trump might be running from jail for all we know.

P.S. Gas prices don't drive elections the way you think they do. And gas prices are tied to Saudi far more than anything involving Russia.

 

Well, Congress does seem to have more than enough on its plate at the moment.