Gas prices dropping, economy thriving, unemployment rates going down, Clinton's book stealing Kerry's spotlight and the polls showing positives for Bush. This can't be good news for the anti-Bush, Kerry lovers. It's funny how these poll results don't get posted here when it's good news for Bush. Quick! Time to dig up some old torture pictures! Get Michael Moore booked on Leno! Now!! http://news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&cid=694&u=/ap/20040617/ap_on_el_pr/campaign_poll_2&printer=1 Poll Suggests Bush Support Has Grown WASHINGTON - President Bush got a boost from the public's recent focus on the funeral of Ronald Reagan and support for his Iraq policy spiked over the last month as the United States prepared to hand power over to Iraqis, according to a poll released Thursday. What's not clear, however, is the effect the Sept. 11 commission's Wednesday statement that it has found no credible evidence Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein (news - web sites) and al-Qaida had a collaborative relationship will have on the polls. The commission's findings raised fresh questions about the Bush administration's decision to invade Iraq. Andrew Kohut, director of the Pew Research Center, said the poll found evidence that Bush got a benefit from the attention paid to the Reagan funeral and the moves toward a handover of power in Iraq. Interviews for the poll started before Reagan's death and continued during the coverage of the extended period of memorials and funerals. "Bush got a little lift last week from the Reagan commemoration," Kohut said. "His (approval) ratings were 44 percent in interviewing done before ... and went up to 50 percent after Reagan's death." Bush's job approval rating in the poll was 48 percent, up slightly from 44 percent in May, according to the poll by the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press. The poll of 1,806 adults was taken from June 3-13 and has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 2.5 percentage points, slightly higher for the sample of registered voters. Bush had a slight lead over Kerry in a three-way matchup, with the president at 46 percent, Kerry at 42 percent and independent Ralph Nader (news - web sites) at 6 percent. Bush and Kerry were tied in a two-way race. Almost six in 10, 57 percent, said the situation in Iraq is going well, up from 46 percent a month earlier. Almost that many, 55 percent, said military action in Iraq was the right decision, up slightly from 51 percent a month earlier. Optimism that U.S. troops will come home in the next two years was up, with 50 percent now saying that compared to 35 percent in April. While the violence in Iraq has continued, much of the recent news coverage has focused on the gradual handover of power to Iraqis.
Wow, I guess you better hope Ford or Bush sr. bite it soon then, huh? Nothing like the good ol' American tragedy bounce.
further proof that the economy is doing well: after 3 1/2 months of looking, i have a new job! and it's kind of my "dream job" too, and it doubles my previous income! grazie giorgio...
Is it worse to hope for another terrorist attack to drive Bush's numbers back down? That's certainly the feeling I get from some people.
Uhh yeah, it would be worse, but why hope for either?? Who exactly is hoping for the murder of thousand of innocent lives for political gain? Lets not make ambiguous charges now. By the way, drive his numbers back down? They already are down, he's still below 50%.
thanks for the good thoughts; this was my fourth (!) bout of unemployment since 9/11, and it finally feels like this is the one. great company, i can stay in NYC (sorry Sam ), and as i said, the money's pretty damn attractive. as my two year old says "Whoooo Hoooo!"
New York has had steady 8% unemployment since 911. I lost my job last year and my wife lost hers a year before that. Congrats basso! Come Rocket season we're going to have to have a meeting of the NYC Rockets fans contingent! No politics! All Rockets!!!!
democracy has never been more fragile than it is right now. another terrorist attack could very well mean that the administration tries to issue a condition of martial law. nobody wants another attack but it would help consolidate bush's power more than it would hurt his numbers.
Is it worse to hope for another terrorist attack to drive Bush's numbers back down? That's certainly the feeling I get from some people. Whenever nothing is going on in the world, Bush's poll numbers consistently drop. It's been that way since day #1 in office for him - not particularly sure why. He's gotten big boosts from 9/11, attacking Iraq, Saddam's capture, and now Reagan's death, but that's about it. Outside of those major events, he consistently just falls.
...Another perspective on the poll numbers. __________________________________________________ Forward Thinking Prognostications (6-13-2004) The problem with polling and predicting is that people tend to take the most recent information too seriously. I certainly can find myself getting caught up in the daily tracking polls, mulling over the 24-hour change in the investor confidence, or updating one of my 75,000 spreadsheets in order to get the inside track on the election. Yet, almost on cue, someone will remind us that the only poll that matters the big one in November... and we all take a step back. Given the reality of the big poll... one might wonder if being part soothsayer is requisite to having any chance to come up with a legitimate election prediction nearly 5 months out. Well... maybe, maybe not. It seems to me by paying attentions to a few simple considerations that we can come up with a decent guess. First and foremost... one has to recognize what issues are pushing and pulling public opinion today. Secondly we have to ask ourselves which of these issues will still be important come November. Last but not least, we must understand the dynamics of these relative issues, and attempt to become part soothsayer by projecting where they go. Now the easiest part of this is identifying the issues that are driving the polling today. Certainly the two biggest issues are the war in Iraq and the economy, the only question is how they affect the polling. While three or four months ago the war was a big plus for the President, recent violence and problems with the post war planning has cause him political trouble. Meanwhile the economy has taken a turn for the better, so what used to be a major thorn in the President's side is now something that seems on the verge of being a plus. In many ways the two issues have worked against each other to keep the election polling close. But will these two issues still dominate come November? Allowing for the given that the economy is always an issue, the major question here would be in regards to Iraq. Given the volatile situation over there, the only thing we probably can say with relative certainty is that the situation there will change. It is possible, but unlikely, that things will go so ‘middle of the road’ ‘down the center’ that it becomes dull, boring and yesterday's issue. But more likely it will either go very well or go very poorly; and it will still be an issue come November. So how can we determine how these issues move between now and then?? Well, that is the guessing game that separates the men from the boys. The easiest projection to make is that the economy will continue to flourish, and that slowly but surely more and more of the general public will accept the economy as robust and recognize the recovery is complete. This will no doubt help the President’s chances, as it is always hard for people to vote against their pocketbooks. The harder projection to make is in Iraq. At the end of this month the Coalition will turn over power to the new Iraqi government. While this may give the President a short-term bump; what happens long-term will ultimately be what effects November’s election. When push comes to shove… the current environment is one in which about 1 in 3 Americans think we are still in a recession, 57% believe we have lost jobs over the past 6 months, and almost 2/3 believe things are going to get worse rather than better in Iraq. Yet in reality, we are two and a half years out of the recession, the past six months has seen 1.2 million new jobs, casualties are down in Iraq, and the international community has rallied around the new government. With the negative perception in place as of today, this race is too close to call. However, in my wildest dreams of pessimism, I cannot see the negative perception sticking around till November. Bottom line is that Bush will benefit from any positive change in perception just as he has suffered from the negative perceptions that exist today. In my humble opinion this puts a lot of pressure on John Kerry to do much more than he has done so far in selling himself. John Kerry cannot hope to offer himself as just a halfway credible alternative to a miserable failure, but will need to sell himself as a better choice against an accomplished incumbent. http://www.coldheartedtruth.com/truth5.html
Be sure and read the user comments at the bottom of the story. http://post.news.messages.yahoo.com...campaign_poll_3&.sig=Kx6kHHECwk0PNpMHwFROUw--
