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(U.S.) Exorbitant Privilege: Crumbling or Still Strong?

Discussion in 'BBS Hangout: Debate & Discussion' started by Amiga, Mar 12, 2025.

  1. Amiga

    Amiga Member

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    Exorbitant Privilege is built on: The U.S. dollar as the global currency, the U.S. being the most stable economy in the world, the reliability of the U.S. financial system (rule of law, investor confidence), U.S. control over global banking infrastructure (e.g. SWIFT facilitating most global transactions), and U.S. military and geopolitical power (a vast global military presence ensuring political stability and protecting both its and its allies' financial and economic systems).

    Now in decline? While excessive debt and political polarization have long been concerns, the decline may now be accelerating due to a destabilizing U.S. government, weakening global leadership, shrinking (or soon-to-be shrinking) military presence, unpredictable business conditions (yo-yoing policies, sometimes changing by the hour), and a loss of confidence in the U.S. rule of law.

    What does this mean for the future?



    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Exorbitant_privilege

    https://www.wilsoncenter.org/article/exorbitant-privilege-now-risk-once-and-future-almighty-dollar

    https://www.brookings.edu/articles/the-dollars-international-role-an-exorbitant-privilege-2/

    https://wid.world/news-article/the-...-reform-of-the-international-monetary-system/

    https://www.carnegiecouncil.org/med...e-future-of-the-international-monetary-system

    https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/...chance-risks-exorbitant-privilege-2025-03-12/

    He also said that discomfort around the administration's style could shake investor faith in U.S. assets if it challenged trust, built over many years, in U.S. markets and institutions.


    "The U.S. seems to have established itself as a place where people can be comfortable about rule of law ... comfortable about the integrity of information flow, and they can be comfortable that the government isn't going to be, in unexpected ways, getting involved in the rules of the game," he said.

    The administration's cutbacks to government agencies, changes to the U.S. role in the world, and decisions such as a move last week to disband advisory committees assisting with data collection, may undermine that, Kasman said.

    "All of those things are part of the uncertainties that have moved into U.S. policy, and that part of the risk in the outlook this year I don't think has been appreciated," he said.

    "The term which has been in place for a very long time is that we have 'exorbitant privilege'. That we end up paying a much lower cost for financing our deficits and debt, we have much greater capital flows and attractiveness of the dollar and assets, because of these things," he said.

    "The risk that that stuff starts to come under pressure and becomes a structural issue in the markets is not something I would, by any means, underplay."

     
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  2. Rocket River

    Rocket River Member

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    Aren't we moving to Crypto?

    Rocket River
     
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  3. Amiga

    Amiga Member

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    Maybe by an inch over a 100-mile stretch.
     
  4. Invisible Fan

    Invisible Fan Member

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    The looming national debt tsunami will be harder to ignore by 2028. Ideally we would pass some reform this year (lulz) to shore up Social Security and Medicare/medicaid. For SS, raise the retirement age again and lift the income caps for payroll taxes.

    Doge tom****ery won't have the same effect as a real congress legislating, though Trump already promised not to touch medicare/SS so we have a boomer president understanding a boomer base looking for self preservation and their own well being.

    In past efforts, we would coordinate with our allies to resolve chronic debt crises affecting nations with aging and retired populations. There will be no Plaza Accord in peacetime.

    I guess it's nice to finally talk about this issue with Trump bullying everyone around to feel like an emperor with clothes, but the entitlement issue that he's rightfully worried about (but not correcting head on) is an incredibly tough nut to crack.
     
    #4 Invisible Fan, Mar 12, 2025
    Last edited: Mar 12, 2025
  5. Rocket River

    Rocket River Member

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    IF the Democrats had a spine
    I would expect an INCREDIBLE OVERREACTION in 2028

    I'm talking Taxing like 95% of their wealth and close ALL LOOP HOLES . . .THAT YEAR so as to not allow them to run
    TAKE
    IT
    ALL
    BACK

    Rocket River
     
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  6. adoo

    adoo Member

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    are there viable alternatives ? certainly not the BRIC


    After 24 years of the BRIC allinace
    • the 2 largest trading partners (China/India) have continued to be engaged in border disputes
    • India does not want to be part of China's version of the Marshall Plan, One Belt One Road Initiative
    • BRIC banks have been losing $ BIG TIME,
      • in that connection, wrecking their balance sheet
    in view of this, to say that the BRIC experiement has been an abject failure would be an understatement.
     
    #6 adoo, Mar 13, 2025
    Last edited: Mar 13, 2025
  7. Amiga

    Amiga Member

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    Not today yet, but if there is a loss of faith in the U.S. government, there will be one. My post shows some reasons why there could be a loss of faith.
     
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  8. SamFisher

    SamFisher Member

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    Buddy, we are cooked. US economic and geopolitical privilege is based on being a good faith actor in the world and the government has been seized by absolute loonies and morons and bad failth neo nazis

    It's not just the US governement but all US businesses and citizens will be harmed by this. MAGA/America First has always had the feature of being the literal exact opposite of what it promises, rather than making America great, or strong, or rich, it makes us petty, stupid, evil and poor.

    American interests are not put first, they are put last to the insane rantings/petty whims of a sick, twisted regime.

    We will all pay the price.
     
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  9. Amiga

    Amiga Member

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    This is the concern. I think many isolationists assume the U.S. is paying a heavy price for maintaining its global political and military presence (and I can't believe I have to say this, a partner that is ethical, moral, reliable, and values the rule of law both interationally and domestically). In reality, it's quite the opposite. That influence is what grants the U.S. extraordinary privileges.
     
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  10. SamFisher

    SamFisher Member

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    None of the MAGA **** ever really makes any sense holistically. It's all just illogical bullshit based on conflicting goals.

    For example, the anti-immigration wing was talking the other day about bringing back national ethncity quotas, to only ensure white/European folks want to come here. But guess what, when you tank your national economy, engage in ugly dumb trade wars, exit all European security arrangements, and destroy your science, medical and university system - you are basicaly saying "nobody should come here" - if anything you get a self-reinforcing brain drain that leads to out migration.

    Or the financial deregulation. Sure, banks complain about regulations all the time, but guess what, having well-regulated financial markets rather than wild west bribery markets is why the US securities& banking markets are the biggest & best in the world (or at least were, look for that to change)

    Finally the absolute dumbest example of Push-pull is Trump's idiotic senile obesseion with trade deficits BUT ALSO wnating to have foreing countries invest in the US. These two things are two sides of the same coin! You can have a current account (trade) deficit and a capital account surplus (foreign investment) or you can have hte opposite! it's arithmetic.
     
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  11. deb4rockets

    deb4rockets Member
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    Bad faith actors, loonies, neo-nazis, and morons does describe a majority of the MAGA party one way or another. Most fall under at least one of those descriptions, and Trump is the biggest bad faith actor, looney, and moron of them all. Every day he seems to do something just plain crazy or stupid.

    Every week since his inauguration has been nothing but confusion, chaos, and mind blowing insanity. From his billionaire donor appointments, to his sudden turning against Canada and our European allies, to his back and forth tariffs, to renaming oceans and parks, to his Putin smooching, to his retaliation firing of everyone who has pissed him off, to wanting to take Gaza, Greenland, Canada, and the Panama Canal, and all the petty removal of climate change wordage, civil rights, and on and on. He's psycho.

    I will never understand why the Republican party aligned with that as*hole in the first place. A second time around was just plain incompetence. They have let a lying psychopath destroy any integrity and respect the world had for this country, as he completely unravels before our eyes.
     
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  12. Invisible Fan

    Invisible Fan Member

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    I'm sure they're thinking of the exact same thing right now, which is why they're gutting agencies, watchdogs and record keepers. They pause all corruption investigations now so there's a backlog tsunami of bad cases to look into on top of hiring good civil workers to replace and bulk up the ones bullied and abused right now. The massive stake they'll put our money into crypto will be hard to roll off if the early stage ponzi magic does kick in within these 4 years. These would presumably be off-roads for wealth.

    On top of that, we're still buggered even if we claw backed and taxed the rich to the max.

    Our best shot woul've been bipartisan legislation followed with clear cost cutting guidelines on deficit and cost reduction. DOGE is a political hack that are a few steps above an executive order to show that the administration is doing something about the problem...similar to Obama "saving Dreamers" with DACA.

    It still doesn't replace Congress passing a legitimate law reflecting Trump/Elon's vision of fiscal pain in order to "save the us." That leaked fight with Elon and Rubio going at it would be far more impactful if it were Elon and the republican leadership fighting over the budget.

    Instead, you see goody bags for the rich as if everything is the same as before. The whole debt ceiling show early this century has turned from a game of chicken daring the other side to blink into a more high stakes game where each party actively revs up the engine towards the fiscal cliff.
     
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  13. Invisible Fan

    Invisible Fan Member

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    Bloody hell. I guess i should've paid more attention.

     
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  14. Buck Turgidson

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    No.
     
  15. Space Ghost

    Space Ghost Member

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    How do you propose to handle a looming debt crisis through bipartisan support in congress from one of the most divisive, stonewalling congress in history?
    Gen X and Gen Z will spend the next several elections fixing the problem while the Millennials sit lazily aside hoping Boomers will hand over their wealth to them.
     
  16. Space Ghost

    Space Ghost Member

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    Bitcoin will become a global reserve asset, not 'crypto'. And the global USD hegemony will be breached. What will the poor entitled Americans do when all their useless debt can no longer be passed off to 3rd world countries?
     
  17. El_Conquistador

    El_Conquistador King of the D&D, The Legend, #1 Ranking

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    Obviously the road that the Democrats put the country on was leading us to ruin. Sky high deficits, sky high inflation, and promises of more spending to come. Wars were breaking out all over the world after the botched Afghanistan withdrawal led to the loss of American deterrence as a foreign policy tool (very important). Then war with Russia was provoked by Blinken/Biden with the Nov 2021 Strategic Cooperation Agreement with Ukraine (paved the way for Ukraine to join NATO). Crime and illegal immigration were out of control.

    Trump has come in and attacked these problems. DOGE is dramatically cutting spending. Wars are being ended. Inflation is coming down rapidly. Mortgage rates are declining, which will lead to homes becoming affordable for families. The border is secure, and crossings are at record lows. Crime will fall as a result, and perhaps even more importantly, real wage growth can occur for the working class. The country is NOW on a path to regaining its leadership position in the world and becoming stronger that it's ever been. It's a beautiful thing.

    GOOD DAY
     
  18. adoo

    adoo Member

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    stop lying Traitor George.
     
  19. El_Conquistador

    El_Conquistador King of the D&D, The Legend, #1 Ranking

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    Do you think Russia was happy about that agreement? They had publicly stated that Ukraine joining NATO was a red-line for them. Biden/Blinken knew this. And they did it anyway. For anyone who has followed US-Russian relations, it's unquestionable that this strategic agreement was a provocative act. And war followed shortly thereafter. Facts, my friend. Which part of this do you dispute?
     
  20. adoo

    adoo Member

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    Putin's useful idiot, Traitor George, at work

    ,
    parroting the Communist dictator's talking points
     
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