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Turnaround year

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by Rockets Jones, Mar 9, 2009.

  1. Rockets Jones

    Rockets Jones Member

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    Just my take on this whole season so far and the future.

    This whole year to me and I think to most people is a real turnaround year. Last year it was already the beginning of a new era with the firing of JVG, the hiring of Morey and Adelman, getting rid of some loose ends and getting younger. This year the transition is in full effect and it seems the Rockets have a bright future ahead.

    This year we got younger, not just with the new players we brought in, but mainly in our new rotation. Let's look at last year and this year's rotation:

    Last year we began with Rafer, Battier, Hayes, Tracy, Yao, James, Wells, Scola, Head and Francis. That's an average of 28.8.
    We ended with Rafer, Battier, Hayes, Tracy, Deke, Bobby, Landry, Brooks, Novak, Harris, Scola and Head. That's an average of 29.8

    We began this year with Rafer, Battier, Scola, Artest, Tracy, Yao, Barry, Brooks, Landry, Hayes. That's an average of 28.7
    We are now with Brooks, Battier, Artest, Scola, Yao, Wafer, Lowry, Hayes, Landry and Barry. That's an average of 27.1

    That's a significant difference, especially if you look at the PG rotation now and the beginning of last year. The Rockets are really trying to send a message by handing over the job to two youngsters.

    It's been years since we have had a young group like this and we're only going to get younger overall with Mutombo retiring, Tracy probably gone and a new draft pick to fill in a roster spot. The Rockets are really trying to get younger with still a chance to make something happen in the playoffs.

    Also the Rockets are finally basing their whole team and style around Yao which he never had with first Francis & Cat playing iso and subsequently Tracy playing iso most of the time (just check how many 30 and 40+ pt games he had). It was never like it was now and it's only going to get better with more players fit for RA's offense.

    I compare this year to somewhere in between 91-92 and 92-93. In 91-92 the Rockets replaced Chaney with Rudy T. The team had already started to get younger just like in 07-08 and only got younger over the next 2 years.

    - Just look at 91-92, the Rockets had already handed over the keys from Sleepy to Kenny, Herrera and Bullard were the young PFs off the bench, Jamerson the young SG off the bench and Maxwell the starter.
    Next year Buck was replaced with the rookie Horry, Brooks took over the back-up PG position and Bullard & Herrera got more playing time.

    Then in 93-94 Cassell came in and replaced Brooks as the main back-up and with most of the young core they started building around in the 90s they got the championship. During all this time Rudy T made his mark on the team with defense and working around Hakeem. The team also had two remarkable 15 game winning streaks and a great 22-1 start. Remember that the team started to really jell around the AS break in 92-93.

    - Now look at last year where we started with probably the oldest PG rotation ever with James, Francis and Alston. This changed during the course of the season with Bobby, but that was only because they didn't have the confidence in Brooks that Rudy T did show in Cassell. This year that has changed with Brooks as a starter and Lowry as a back-up. That's an average age of 22.5 as opposed to the 30+ last year. Wafer is the main back-up SG and will probably stay here the next couple of years given he keeps improving.

    The transition of JVG to RA didn't went as we had hoped but that's mainly due to Tracy. Now with him out of the picture, hopefully, the team has started the transition. The inside-out game can finally work and mix with the motion offense. Last year Tracy did show he could play within the offense and we went on a 22 game winning streak but defense was mostly responsible for that and the whole team being unselfish. This team also started to jell around the AS break in 07-08 but due to injuries everything got held up.

    We are now past the streak and finally after a year ready to make some noise in the playoffs. This year around the AS break, when Tracy went out, we really started to committ to defense again and everything started to work. We showed flashes of it earlier this year when Wafer started and both Artest and Tracy were out but when they came back that went to hell. Artest was injured and had problems with Tracy which are out the way so the team can finally start moving towards the future.

    I believe if the Rockets continue to put their faith in these young players we can compete for a championship in the next couple of years. Maybe sooner, maybe later, it all depends on injuries, what they do with Tracy and how our young guys develop. Not everybody's ready like Horry and Cassell were but with we have no reason to doubt Lowry, Brooks, Landry and Wafer will be significant for this franchise, thus the future.

    I still believe getting out of the first round this year and maybe even the WCF could happen but we have to be realistic and realise there is no chance of this team being Champs, let alone make the Finals. However, for the turnaround year to be really succesfull, the 2nd round of the playoffs is a must. We'll see what happens after that.

    P.S. I wrote as I thought it so forgive me if some things do not make sense. I hope I got my point across though :)
     
  2. DaDakota

    DaDakota Balance wins
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    Attention all ROOKIES......

    THIS IS HOW YOU START A THREAD !!!

    Well done.

    DD
     
  3. seclusion

    seclusion rip chadwick

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    good stuff. hopefully things turn out as you suggest. we'll see in a month or two what this team is really made of.
     
  4. MrButtocks

    MrButtocks Member

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    I agree with everything except for your belief in Wafer. He doesn't bring much to the table besides the ability to put up a lot of shots. I'd much rather have someone like Azubuike, who at least brings hustle and defense along with his athleticism and shooting. Man, we really blew it by letting that guy go.
     
  5. Hayesfan

    Hayesfan Member

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    That's rather interesting. Every time someone called Scola, Landry and Aaron "young" I would get a bit frustrated.

    All three may be young as far as NBA experience goes, but none of them are really "young". Scola is 28, Landry is 26, Aaron 24.. then you add Dorsey, who is not part of the rotation, but he's the same age as Carl and Chuck... 26 (or they all will be this year). Now you add Lowry, who I do consider young at 22 (or 23). Von is what? 23 or 24.

    I think the key is replacing people like Juwan, Mike James, & Bonzi with people a little younger.

    Maybe it just depends on what you consider young? I figure anyone over 24 isn't really all that young.

    I'd be interested to see the average age of the rotation from 2004-2005 on.
     
  6. rocketsmetalspd

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    This Rockets team is younger but I am also in the belief that they must win the first round in order to be a turn around year. The Rockets have a good chance as any team in the West to get out of the West and into the finals. Out of all the teams the Rockets still can improve there team play the rest of the top teams have been together with the same lineup all season.
     
  7. Tom Bombadillo

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    And it always helps to end in a :)
    5 star thread.
     
  8. jsmee2000

    jsmee2000 Member

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    That would be interesting to see and also I would be interested in the median age instead of the average or the mean with the standard deviation. I wonder how much does Deke skew the average.
     
  9. MrButtocks

    MrButtocks Member

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    What's the average age of the last five championship teams and their benches? I don't think youth is quite as important to winning as some would think. It seems like every year some old guy like PJ Brown or Finley jumps on a contender and helps put them over the top.
     
  10. jkckwong

    jkckwong Member

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    I have 6 stars for my vote but the max to be accepted is 5. Sorry :D . Excellent thread. I am confident that Rox can win 1st round of playoff.
     
  11. Rockets Jones

    Rockets Jones Member

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    I even forgot to mention how it's a turnaround year not just teamwise, but also individually (so far). Here's a look at some players:

    - Yao: Having his 2nd best season FG% wise, which is very good considering he's having an average amounts of FGA. FT% wise it's his best season, PPG right now are at a career best, considering his top 3 in PPG came in seasons where he played only 48, 55 and 57 games. This all even more amazing when he's only averaging 31 mins per game (right in the middle career wise, so 3 years averaged more and 3 years averaged less. This shows something I had never realised before: the 3 years he averaged the least MPG he was not injured and were his first three years in the NBA) He's also on a pace to get a career high in totall steals and assists for a season.

    - Artest: In only 34 MPG he's already made a career high 121 threes, 93 last year was his previous best. He's shooting a career high 43% 3PFG, which is amazing considering how he's been playing on a bad ankle. Having a 2nd best year in FT%

    - Wafer: Is having a career year in 3P%, FG% and FT% which doesn't tell much but it's still great to have a guy who findly found his spot and shows the ability to be good (regardless of what his past stats say)

    - All of the big three from last year (AB, Landry and Scola) have improved, 2 of them are starting, 2 only got garbage minutes last year and were drafted late, we are having a great record with AB in the starting lineup etc.

    - We finally have a true PG in Lowry who can finish at the basket

    There is probably some more but I'm not going through all the stats.

    In general also the Rockets are one of the better teams on their home court which is something the Rockets have not had in quite some time and the overall FT% is an amazing improvement over last year where we lost game because of it. In the playoffs you need to be able to make your FTs so let's hope they keep it going.

    There are many teams in the NBA with injuries like the Jazz and Spurs who are having a great year. This list includes the Rockets and while all teams have kept their heads above water and showed they could play without some of their best players, the Rockets are clearly among the most amazing. Just look at / consider:
    - our terrible FG%
    - we are one of the best record wise against teams over .500
    - we have lost to bottom of the standings, not just bad, teams
    - we are 26th in blocking shots
    - we are 3rd from the bottom in forcing turnovers
    - we are 7th in getting our shots blocked
    - we have had problems within the team, mainly with Tracy
    - etc.

    Just something to think about and if you have something to add, please do :D
     
  12. smoothie

    smoothie Jabari Jungle

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    excellent thread.

    this team's (+fans) relationship with tracy is like that of an ex-girlfriend who cheated on you. she never put you first and even though you didnt have rock solid proof, you knew it. you were unhappy because of it but you refused to part ways, thinking she was your only chance at happiness.

    well she did us a big favor this year. she left us, and all of us realize that we're happier without the stress of a bad relationship. once she's gone what's the first thing you do? get rid of all of the stuff that reminds you of her (rafer :D ).

    and move on...
     
  13. Rockets Jones

    Rockets Jones Member

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    Sorry but I think you misunderstood my original statement. What I meant was the Rockets team are starting to get younger which could mean great things for the future, so not that a younger team means a better a chance at competing for a championship now.

    Just look at the 90s Rockets, which started to build around young guys in the 90s, from 88-89 all the way through 94-95 wherein they added experience and some youth to get a championship. Around the championship they were not young anymore as a whole, but the core was young though:

    - Kenny NBA career started in 86-87 and got the starting position in 90-91
    - Maxwell NBA career started in 88-89 and got the starting position half way through 89-90
    - Horry got the starting position immediately in 92-93 when his NBA career started

    That's 3 out of 5 starters from the championship team that started with the Rockets when they were still young and 2 of them had less than 7 years of experience. Herrera and Bullard were quite young, Cassell was a rookie and Elie was brought in for experience.

    The current team can now start to make the team a bit younger, getting rid of some old guys and get experience along the way. This team does have the experience to make the transition more fluid than the 90s Rockets because they started all over again after the Bill Fitch years, something the Rockets have not succesfully done since they got rid of Cassell and Horry.

    This team can rid of Tracy next year, maybe even Artest and Battier. For Tracy they can bring in some youth to build around and still keep the experience with Artest and Battier etc. Whatever the scenario, the Rockets have great assets to make the team younger and still keep the experience to compete for a championship in maybe 2-3 years. I think it could happen even next year but it all depends on how we do in the playoffs this year.
     
  14. Hayesfan

    Hayesfan Member

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    LOL this made me giggle as I am taking my first statistics class this semester. Now I am going to have to put all the details in our statcrunch software when I get home and make some histograms. ;)
     
  15. yobod

    yobod Member

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    First thing's first, Von brings nothing BUT hustle. The one thing I love about him is that when he sees that his shot isn't falling, he FORCES the ball to the rim, and usually ends up with a layup or a foul call. That's exactly what we're going to need in the playoffs.

    Second, it's not about just straight up youth....it's about having that mix of veteran leadership and young talent. Look teams like the Spurs and Celtics. The Spurs have always been a little older on their bench, but they've also always had great young players who fit their system well. Remember, when they were winning every other year, Manu was in his mid 20s and Parker was in his early 20s. Even Duncan was young when they first started winning, and now this year, they have guys like Roger Mason, Ime Udoka, and George Hill all contributing heavy minutes off the bench. The Celtics also have the same style of talented youth in guys like Rondo, Glen Davis, and Leon Powe. It's all about having that mix.
     
  16. Depressio

    Depressio Member

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    This is what is so encouraging about this team. Sure, we may not be the best team this year (though we might've been if McGrady hadn't been so injured and was his normal self), but if you look at our team, most are youngsters who haven't even reached their potential yet.

    Aaron Brooks and Kyle Lowry have huge amounts of potential (especially Lowry) and are getting better with every game and every test.

    Scola/Landry become more and more dominant as PF's with every game as well. Landry's beginning to defend (4 blocks last night!) and Scola continues to hustle and work on his unorthodox game; he seems to be positioning himself better down under and grabbing more rebounds as a result.

    Yao continues to improve. He's not so much a youngster, but have you seen some of his passes lately? He's turning into a decent passer with this inside-out offense, and if that continues to develop, I could see him getting triple doubles with assists!

    Von Wafer has been a great surprise this season. The kid can shoot. He sometimes gets a bit overzealous, but he's certainly not afraid to take a shot he thinks he can make. Hopefully his shooting touch and defense will improve, but was added playing time, I don't see why it wouldn't.

    If we keep a hold on these young players and continue developing them, I'd say the Rockets can remain a factor for many years to come. If we re-sign Ron Artest, that's great, as he's been benefitting from Yao's passes and the offense in general. Once we get rid of McGrady after next season (trading him during next season is a possibility since some teams will want expiring contracts) we can add yet another piece to the puzzle, preferably someone young.

    Imagine this team with Joe Johnson added to it, for example. Yeah, that's a contender.
     
  17. ambrose86

    ambrose86 Rookie

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    WRONG!

    Yao played better under JVG, and that is a fact. Even casual observers of the game would agree to this.
     
  18. Rockets Jones

    Rockets Jones Member

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    I understand what you're saying but you have to read the whole part, because I'm saying basing the team around Yao MIXED with the RA offense, so not simply dumping the ball to Yao everytime (when Tracy decided not to create for himself), is when Yao can be most succesfull. Yao is not Olajuwon, he cannot take that kind of beating for 30 / 40 mins so moving him around, getting him involved with screens and sometimes move him to the high post can relieve him of his scoring duties and make him less fatigued and more versatile. Basing the team around Yao is not simply dumping the ball to him either, especially with another player who was never ready to be just another role player. Now we have a team with players who accept that role, even Artest.
     
  19. txppratt

    txppratt Member

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    TRUE THAT!
     
  20. blacktopKING

    blacktopKING Member

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    One key ingredient the Rox will need in the playoffs is veteran leadership. Thank God for Deke! We need a F/G who has some playoff exp. under his belt to help out the young bucks. The young guys would benefit greatly from this.
     

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