I don’t believe that. Tucker would be by far the biggest loss with Framber a close second. Bregman has been a good player, but not MVP quality since 2019. Tucker will a top 5 player in the American League for at least 5 years. Also we don’t have the luxury of taking off until 1/3 of the season is over, which is Bregman’s MO. As experienced last year and this, we can no longer coast to winning the division. I understand the theory that our best prospects (unless Matthews can play a decent 3b) are not MLB ready and MAYBE some of OF’s are, but I still don’t see the drop-off from a 20 hr .250 avg hitter to whatever a journeyman signee or Dicenzo, as a great as the drop off between Tucker and the same scenario. Tucker also steals bases and is a pretty good defender (I know Bregman is a great fielder). No Framber will make run production that more important. I really think they sign one of the 3, but it is a pretty good bet they don’t sign any of them. I hope it’s Tucker.
I think none of us think Bregman is going to be as good as he is now, 6 years from now. But the chances are that he will be much better than Altuve is, every year from here on out and Jose just signed for 6 years. Alex gets all kinds of ****, but he has been better than Altuve for a couple of years and is 4 years younger, so probably will continue to be better. Bregman / Altuve 2024: 3.8 bWAR / 3.4 bWAR 2023: 4.9 bWAR / 2.8 bWAR 2022: 4.6 bWAR / 5.2 bWAR 2021: 2.1 bWAR / 4.5 bWAR 2020: 1.1 bWAR / -0.2 bWAR 2024: 3.9 fWAR / 3.8 fWAR 2023: 4.5 fWAR / 4.1 fWAR 2022: 5.4 fWAR / 6.8 fWAR 2021: 2.1 fWAR / 5.3 fWAR 2020: 1.3 fWAR / -0.1 fWAR Alex is on pace for exactly 4.0 WAR (average of 3.8&3.9 over 156 games = 3.998 for 162) Jose is on pace for 3.74 (3.738) The normal accepted regression due to age is about 0.5 WAR per year after age 30. Projection If Alex signs for 6 years, just like Altuve did 2025: Alex 3.5 WAR, Jose 3.2 WAR 2026: Alex 3.0 WAR, Jose 2.7 WAR 2027: Alex 2.5 WAR, Jose 2.2 WAR 2028: Alex 2.0 WAR, Jose 1.7 WAR 2029: Alex 1.5 WAR, Jose 1.2 WAR 2030: Alex: 1.0 WAR, Jose 0.7 WAR The truth is both contracts are "bad" in the traditional sense. But Alex is better throughout and is at least a 2 WIN player for 4 of the 6 years. Alex gets 13.5 WAR and Jose gets 11.7 WAR.
Given Altuve was injured for a significant chunk of the season from getting hit on the hand in the WBC, you probably want to prorate their WAR totals against the games played. Neither has shown any significant injury history and Altuve’s injury was random. Altuve played 90 games in 2023 and Bregman played 161, so Altuve had a higher per game bWAR last year and a significantly higher per game fWAR. On your larger point a 6 year deal for Bregman would not be terrible in and of itself and is more realistic than a 10+ year deal for Tucker.
If Crane doesn't sign Tucker then he's not interested in competing. He's an AL MVP candidate if he stays healthy.
I’m talking about the guys who are no brainers when healthy or who have done it before. Yes, there are some theoretical guys that could bust out year after year, or potentially could struggle. We’ve seen first hand this year examples of players whose production can change year to year due to a variety of reasons. (technically, Altuve may not be an all star player post 2025… but there isn’t much competition at 2B in the AL at the moment, and eventually guys get voted in on name recognition alone.)
Altuve was always a below market contract and JV was super short deals. The Astros have their philosophy and long, market $ deals are not it.
I don't think Altuves current contact is well below value given his age. You brought up JV, but he did retain him twice at market rates. He just paid Hader. There aren't many teams handing monster contracts out. Almost always they've been huge mistakes. So I'm not mad. Team is already pissing away money on terrible 3 year contracts.
People also need to realize that the Astros have historically spent, and will continue to spend, at or exceeding the level of most mid-market teams. Or if you want to consider that there are only 2 “big” markets… and every other market beyond that can spend when the time is right, or hold back when things aren’t on the cusp (look at Boston or the Cubs’ spending in recent years… in markets that are deemed “big” in terms of their media rights deals). The Astros spent enough to retain Bagwell/Biggio their entire careers. They extended/bought out prime years for Berkman/Oswalt. And now, they’ve locked up Altuve for his career while extending/buying out Bregman previously and Yordan now. They have room for at least 2 cornerstone contracts. And that’s not including the fact that Crane has seen the most gate revenue, playoff revenue, and soon to reap benefits of TV network ownership moreso than any other Astros owner in history… and the top 3 payroll is a manifestation of all these happenings combined.
I don't know how they replace Bregman's defense at 3B. He seems critical. Same with Tucker's production in the OF. And with Framber's high level production and eating innings in the rotation. They don't really seem to have internal options to replace any of them. I guess that's the risk to luxury signings like Abreu, Montero, and Hader when you had options in house. Now Crane has to eat luxury tax penalties or take a big step down by replacing a star with a weak substitute.
They don’t have to really make a decision on two of those guys till 2026. Bregman’s send-off today was orchestrated by the team… seems like they’ve either let him know their final offer, or that there won’t be an offer. It also makes more sense now that he’s going to play through his injury and optimize his future value. I still see a lot of teams being skiddish on him and he may have to end up taking a 1 year Chapman-like deal, but it won’t likely be here.
That's the problem, you can't wait until 2026. You're out on Tucker if it gets that far. You're probably a 50/50 proposition on Valdez. Valdez will cost a little more than the money we gain from JV being off the books. So that is doable this off season. Not sure how you get Tucker some without luxury tax repercussions.
You move salary in trades, even if you dont get value in the trade. This will allow you to bring back Bregs if you want too. Also hopefully if they trade Pressly and his 14 mil contract they get a good young 3B or OF back and I'm bringing back Kickuci and backloding a deal for Framber when Abreu/Montero come off of the books in 2026. Gotta keep the pitching staff in tact. Hopefully one of Melton/Matthews/Baez are ready by the All Star break next yr. I would have Baez learning how to play 1B all offseason.
This is how I see things going down. I just hope they can bring back Kikuchi and re-sign Framber. The rest will workout in the wash for 2025. Rengifo is a guy I would look at on the cheap to replace Bregs. He's solid. Hopefully Dezenzo will be ready by the 2025 all star break.
Those are all within ~$300k of my estimates. Houston should have about $20M to spend to get to their 2024 level, even with $60M of dead money on the books. But they will spend more if Crane continues to stretch payroll as he has the last 4-5 seasons. Current 26 man payroll estimates (with no other moves factored in): 2025: $208M 2026: $152M 2027: ~$145M 2028: ~$135M 2029: ~$80M
I'm encouraged. I thought that Tucker and Framber would get $40M between them. They still may, but the idea that people who do this for a living don't gives me hope. I hadn't really looked into the rest of the guys.
