I understand Crane not wanting to hand out a 10-year $350 million contract, but we will regret it if we don't resign Tucker. He will be one of the best players in the league for the next 5 years if he can stay healthy. Of course, I want both of them back, but because Tucker is younger, I'd prefer to resign him if we could only sign one or the other.
Sign Bregman...that way you at least have one more year of Bregman and Tucker together next year. But sign Bregman. The ultimate tragedy would be letting both walk.
Reminder that Yordan having both knees operated on before the age of 23 doesn't bode well for a lengthy, worry-free career... and I believe both sides are well aware of this in regards to the decisions they've made thus far on contract extensions. Tucker's shin fracture pales in comparison as far as future risk goes. The Astros have always been able to retain franchise cornerstones no matter what the era.
I don't think the farm is going to spit out enough value to keep refilling the Astros with homegrown talent as well as value to acquire players via trade for much longer. As such. I expect Crane to go the Jose Abreu route to fill in offensive production for Bregman and Tucker. Short, but moderate to high AAV instead of the long contracts with moderate to high AAVs. I doubt Crane will want to pay Bregman and Tucker in 2029+ as I expect a big drop in talent some time between 2026-2028. Hoping for better than Jose Abreu production. Though, I wouldn't frown on Crane for keeping either player.
Just wait until they both walk and Framber too. After watching Keuchel, Springer, Correa, Cole, and JV walk I have no faith Crane has any interest in extensions beyond those buyout year ones like we did for Alvarez and Bregman.
I’m guessing their internal evaluations should reveal as much. They don’t have built-in replacements for these guys on the level of the Springer/Correa departures. They have Yordan and Altuve as the only all-star type position players beyond 2025 right now. With their young/affordable pitching, they should be in the playoff mix and have payroll flexibility… but seasons like the last two may be more common than the 2017-2022 type runs (and as you pointed out, they’ve needed to splurge on trades to make the last 2 seasons end in likely playoff runs).
Then there’s Altuve, JV, and Hader type deals over the years that go against the “pattern”. The consistency in Crane is that he adjusts based on the team’s chances. When the farm has replacement-level guys ready, he lets players walk. When they don’t, he signs or extends them (or trades for them). When the farm system can’t withstand that many more trades, we’ll likely see more signings. They know what they need to spend/field to compete. When it reaches the point that competing is not a given anymore… you’ll see him either sell or order the complete tear-down (which he’s been on record saying he doesn’t plan on doing again).
That ignores Altuve, but reaching FA is a bad sign. They offered Keuchel an extension that he ultimately should have taken. JV has signed 2 contracts with Crane. I think he'll try to keep them, but only and up with 1 of the 3. I think it will be Framber.
Without Framber, the rotation still has 7+ MLB caliber starters under contract/control in 2026. Without Tucker, the Astros have Melton, Baez, and/or Whitcomb who could become a starting level OF after another season of development. Without Bregman, the Astros have Dezenzo (who clearly isn't ready), Whitcomb (who does not have any infield defensive chops), and/or Dubon (who doesn't have enough power to be an everyday starter, and thrives in his current role) starting at 3b. Framber may be the Ace and a level above the other starters and Tucker may be the best player this team has, but Alex is the loss that would hurt the Astros on the field and won/loss record the most.
I really don't expect much difference between the best of Melton et all for RF and the best of Matthews et all for 3B (i.e., within a win). I expect Tucker is going to be a much better player than Bregman going forward due to age and being a bit better at the plate the past 4 seasons. On Framber, pitchers get hurt. He's routinely about as far from the No.6 SP or farther than I expect Bregman will be above the best of Matthews et all by mid next season. As Framber is much more important for postseason runs than Bregman, Tucker is going to be out of the Astros budget, and pitchers tend to sign for less years (i.e., much more likely Crane has to pay Framber less years/less money in bad years), I expect Framber will be the priority for re-signing. I expect the Astros try to sign a FA that can help with 3B briefly while Matthews gets developed.
You don't win World Series without elite pitching. Framber is one of the top five pitchers in mlb when he's on. I Like what I've seen with Hunter and some of our other young pitchers but who knows how Javier, and Garcia and McCullers and France are going to look when they come back. No idea how Blanco and Arrighetti will look in the playoffs (as well as Brown). I would do what it takes to resign Framber. Tucker is gone. Bregman more then likely is gone as well but maybe they find a way to get a deal done even if they have to over pay on say a six yr deal.
I bet the Astros would look outside the organization for Bregman’s replacement . At least for the next year or 2.
Framber would probably be my top priority if I was GM. There just aren’t that many pitchers that can reliably give you close to 200 IP at 30-40% better than league average results. As we’ve seen you can never have too much pitching. I’m not giving him a Gerrit Cole type contract, but it’s easier to replace an outfielder or 3b and pitching will probably get more expensive over time. Between Tucker and Bregman, Tucker is much more likely to have the most value going forward and he’s younger. I think he’s also likely to get offers in terms of length of contract that the Astros are not going to be willing to match. It’s aLao easier to replace production in a corner outfield spot. Anecdotally the Astros record this year has correlated more to Bergman’s production than whether Tucker has been available or not. Bregman seems to have more value outside of his direct in the field play (may not be true, but I hear more about his work with pitchers, etc.). I don’t see too many scenarios where there is a contract that works for both Tucker and the Astros, so I assume he’s gone. I could see some that work for both Bregman and the Astros (even if none of them seem particularly likely).
I actually like Matthews significantly more than Melton. I just think he is 1) 1 year behind Melton. I do not expect any MLB success in 2025. I half expect him to not even see an MLB field. 2) Alex is a free agent 1 year sooner than Tucker, which means Melton (or Baez) have time to develop that Matthews doesn't if he's going to be the Astros long term answer at 3b. 3) I know the Matthews has played some 3b but I still think he is just as likely to be the Astros long term answer at SS (or possibly CF). Pena is a FA after 2027. If Matthews doesn't make the Astros opening day roster until that season, as I expect, he has 1 full season ( plus partial on 2026) to adjust to MLB and take over SS in 2028. Or, if he shows well in 2026, the Astros could trade Pena in the off season. Either way, there is no chance Bregman's replacement is ready to start 2025. There is a chance Tucker's replacement could be ready by 2026.
I'm as big a fan of Framber as anybody.... lefty cy-young candidates that consistently throw 200 IP, have big-game/playoff experience, and are built like tanks are one of the rarest of entities in todays game. Teams with aspirations of contending just don't let those guys go. He does, however, have a ton of miles already... and all pitchers will eventually succumb to something. Astros 'should' know his medicals better than anybody. Their willingness to entertain possible extensions will probably have a lot to do with that knowledge.
I would never give ANY starting pitcher a contract over 5 years or before their arbitration seasons. Even then injury is likely to happen. All you can do is hope a Strasburg or possibly McCullers loss of career doesn't happen with multiple years of guaranteed money on the books. At anyntime, a starting pitcher's salary could be a 1-2 season loss. Its important to have Starters under cheap control and not risk long term. I haven't done the research, but I would expect the majority of starting pitchers have a major injury that costs significant (1/2 a season or more) loss at some point between arbitration and their first few seasons after initial control ends.
A 6 year deal with Bregman would be a good investment for about a year and a half and a burden for the remainder of the contract.
