Guesstimated 2025 payroll. Guaranteed contracts: $142M Arbitration salaries: $65M Pre-arb on 26 man: $8M minor leaguers on 40 man: $3M 0-3 yr player bonus pool: $1.7M Benefits: $17.5M Total: $237.2M CBT : 1st= $241M 2nd = $261M 3rd = $281M 4th = $301M
I don’t count benefits in my estimate, so you can probably add ~$20M to all my numbers to account for that. I expect Houston will have ~$20M to play with this offseason, maybe a little more depending on how aggressive Crane is and how much they want to hold back for the trade deadline. That $60M in dead money sure hurts.
This thread is a lotta nothing. Neither player will sign with Astros. Enjoy this final postseason with Bregman, hopefully he gets red hot, but he is gone after that. Tucker can help us win this year and next but then he’s getting an 8-10 year deal for 300-350 mil after next season.
Totally agree on Bregman. And I think we need to avoid what I think probably mirrors closer to the Springer deal than what's happened with Correa in Minnesota. So not quite that level of disaster (Correa), but still pretty bad on the order of the Springer deal with Toronto. Let someone else over pay. He's on the wrong side of 30, his numbers keep declining from his absolute peak in 2019 when his MVP was stolen. You're looking at a guy over the next 6 yrs that might average 70 RBIs (projected injuries included), and I think that might be generous. You're paying that guy $30 million for 6 years? Good luck.
That money is as dead as dead can be in 2025. Nobody is considering taking on $11.5 million to a pitcher that may not even make your team. Unless by some miracle be can come back and be a serviceable 6th/7th inning guy for us like a Phil Maton and we can recoup a small portion of what we paid him.
I don't think Tucker was mentioned once in that post. Wtf. Before this injury I was 100% on board with signing Tucker because one thing stuck out over all his accomplishments , his availability. After that nearly 3 month hiatus because of a foul ball off his shin, I've moved off that. Tucker has come up pretty small in the playoffs, that's another consideration. If by some miracle we sign him to $25 million a year this off season, I think you pull the trigger. If he wants something much bigger, he'll be gone too.
While the Astros have thrived despite losing previous FA’s, there were also clear cut replacements on the cusp. It’s obviously tough to be a 162 game player. Not every call up or guy that has success here/there can be expected to just fill in. The missed draft picks and some middling player development could catch up with them after 2026.
I don't see any way the Astros avoid exceeding the CBT in 2025. Framber and Tucker are both getting $20M+ in arbitration for their final years in Houston. I don't see any way Tucker can be helped - he's not signing an extension with a smaller AAV and he won't be traded. Framber could conceivably sign a longer extension that gets his AAV under $20M, but that would require a longer commitment than the Astros should go. Like Tucker, this just needs to be endured for 1 final season. It's highly unlikely that anyone with a salary over $5M can or will be traded. I know Pressly has been mentioned, but based on his no trade rights, being a Texan, value on the field to a contending team, and franchise icon status I don't see it. That means, if the Astros are going to cut payroll, the only realistic way to do it is to trade away or non-tender arbitration eligible guys like Chas, Pena, Meyers, B.Abreu, Dubon, etc. I could see a couple of guys like Murfee or Chas being traded or non-tendered but too many really cuts into the depth and makes this team very susceptible to injury or under performance. I think they simply must grin and bear it, but that would mean the team, realistically, must find a way to duck under the CBT for 2026 to reset the penalties.
I agree with you. Of the three, I think Framber is the most likely to be re-signed. I hope they don’t overpay for Bregman. I’d love to have him back on a 3 year deal, but he isn’t going for that. I really think they let Bregman and Valdez walk. If they are not contending by the deadline next year they will get what they can for Tucker. I hope I’m wrong and they sign Tucker to whatever it takes, but I see no way they sign more than 1.
How do the Astros resign Bregman this offseason, and still get back under the CBT in 2026? Current 2025 CBT payroll estimate: $237M Overall, the 2025 Astros' roster is in pretty decent shape. Catcher: Diaz, Caratini, Salazar Infield: Altuve, Pena, Dubon, Singleton, Dezenzo, Kessinger, Whitcomb outfield: Alvarez, McCormick, Meyers, Tucker, Cabbage, Hummel, Leon, Corona Starters: Valdez, Brown, Arrighetti, Blanco, McCullers, Garcia, France ( Javier) Bullpen: Hader, Pressly, B Abreu, Scott, Ort, King, Dubin, Whitley, Murfee, Martinez, Ortega, Sousa, Contreras, Hernandez. If they resign Bregman (the point if this exercise) then I think they only need 1 more inexpensive veteran SP and 1 more inexpensive veteran LHH outfielder. Gamel has been good, fits in well, and only made $1.2M this year. Sign him to a 1 yr/$3M deal. 55 starting pitchers signed FA contracts last year and 23 of them were $5M AAV or less. It should be easy to identify and sign a depth starter for $5M. CBT payroll at $245M 2026: Framber, Tucker, Pressly, and Caratini are FA. J.Abreu and Montero are off the books !! That's a reduction of about $95M. Dubon, B.Abreu, McCormick, Pena, Meyers, Garcia, Singleton, Scott, Brown, Diaz, Ortega, Murfee, and Ort are all in arbitration. It's all but impossible to predict those salaries w/o knowing 2025 salaries or performance, but let's say 10 of the 13 are kept and the average a $4M raise. That sounds crazy high, but I want to make sure there is no chance my estimates are low. 2026 payroll = $190M 2026 CBT = $244M There is money to sign Bregman ( and maybe Kikuchi!!) and maybe even extend a couple of guys like Pena, Diaz, or Brown. The Astros can "afford" to pay Alex as much as $40M per season and still be fine in 2026 and long term. Obviously it won't take near that much.
Sign Framber to an extension. Trade Pressly/Chas and use prospects to get out from under say 1/2 of Montero's contract. If they can remain contenders next year, they should have plenty of money coming off of the books in the 2025 offseason. Abeu/Montero/LMJ etc...
They DFA'd and waived Montero. Even if he is traded now the Astros are on the hook for his entire salary minus the MLB minimum.
11.5M for Montero next year, 14M mutual option for Pressly has now been vested (50 games pitched both this year and last)
