Nah, I doubt he really cares enough that Jayden is from LSU to make a trip there. I tend to believe the fact that he's there makes more sense due to contract negotiations.
Maybe Intagram really did break this news? Or maybe it's just Instagram+Internet=bullshit? Silly Season is always fun!
The ESPN report from earlier this week is what put this on the radar: “Bregman seems to be a primary target of the Astros and Washington Nationals (a very widely rumored landing spot for him) -- two teams that tend to be aggressive and not worry about models when chasing their targets.”
If a report says the Astros don’t care about models, that makes it a suspect report. Only when Crane gets a particular desire for a player do they spend big, and there is no sense yet Crane is insisting on Bregman.
Hence why it’s being speculated as such….we know the Astros have genuine interest in bringing him back (per Brown’s interviews), and Crane has a penchant for ensuring he gets his targets. (what he’s done with JV, Altuve, Hader last year, etc.). The nationals were not one of the “obvious” teams to go signing FA’s, but there’s a lot here that makes sense. Team on the rise with young talent in need of veteran leadership, big east coast market.
Tiers for signing Alex Bregman Tier 1: Have money, they historically spend, and he fits a need. Yankees, Mets, Dodgers, Angels, Tigers, Nationals, Red Sox, Giants. Tier 2: Have money and meets a need. Astros, Mariners, Royals, Tier 3: Have money but he doesn't really fit the roster or organization priorities. Orioles, Blue Jays, Phillies, Braves, Reds, Cubs, Padres, Diamondbacks Tier 4: Has no money or opportunity to contend, despite fitting the roster. A's, Twins, Marlins, Pirates, Tier 5: No money and also not a fit. Rangers, Rays, Guardians, White Sox, Brewers, Cardinals, Rockies.
Yankees - They are in NY, are motivated to take that final step to relevance after a poor World Series performance and need a 3b. Their priority is Soto, and if they do bring him back, there's probably not money. The scandal is a non-issue (except maybe to Alex?) despite what fans say there were no problems when they signed Marwin Gonzalez. Mets- See the Yankees. except their playoff run was a step below, Alonso is the priority instead of Soto, and the scandal doesn't apply. Money is less of a factor and they could probably bring Alex in even if they resign Alonso, but with Vientos he wouldn't be a fit any longer. Dodgers- Apparently they have all the money in the world, a hole at 3b, and are hell bent on forcing MLB to make stricter spending rules, but even if that happens it is years away. The scandal is probably the most serious here, especially if Kershaw is still on the team but as I've said, teams don't care as much as fans and the media. The Dodgers winning in 2024 probably helps that too. Angels - who knows what Artie Moreno is going to do but he has always spent big on position players and is in LA, so money isn't an issue. Alex probably only goes there if several other good moves are made first showing the commitment and a solid chance to win. Tigers- Historically, this organization has not been afraid to spend. They have a good young roster on the way up and need a 3b and a veteran leader. Having Hinch helps too. Nationals- After a few down years acquiring and developing young talent, this team is again on the cusp of competing. They are in a big market, are not afraid to spend and need both a 3b and a veteran leader. Red Sox- At first glance, this is an odd fit, but they always have money and a need to match or catch the Yankees. The have made balancing their lineup by adding a RH bat a priority. Devers is a poor fielder at 3b and could move to 1b/DH but that could cause a log jam w/ Casas, Yoshida, and the other lefty outfielders that they have said could be reduced by trade. They also need a 2b and Boras has said Alex would be willing to move. Giants- Another curious fit, but they have been trying to bring in big names for years, but keep getting outbid (Machado, Harper, Correa, etc). Also Posey may want to put his stamp on this team and I think Alex has all the traits he would value. Chapman isn't moving off 3b, but there is a need at 2b where their top 2 players in 2024 were both under 80 wRC+/OPS+.
He is going to NY or LA. Dark horses are the Astros and Nats. Super dark horses are Blue Jays and Giants.
I still think Astros are the favorites, but it's very close. If Soto or Alonso leave NY then I think that changes. Then Alex's market instantly grows, probably by 1-2 yrs and $30-50M. Unfortunately for us, that is exactly why Boras will wait. Now I estimate: Astros 25% Nationals 15% Yankees 15% Dodgers 15% Tigers 10% Mets 10% Red Sox 5% Any other team 5% If Soto leaves Yankees then Yankees +18% and each other team -3% If Mets get neither Soto nor Alonso Mets +12% and all other teams -2%
Nothing YET has changed my mind. I think Boras is hoping more/better offers come in from those teams that miss out on Soto, but I still expect the Astros to resign him after the other offers raise the price. It's going to be a new team record for length and guaranteed $$. I think people will be surprised and a few fans not happy. I'm still saying 7/$182M
Who were the guys at the dais in West Palm Beach taking all the heat: Altuve and Bregman. Makes all the sense in the world, and even Brown has said they should be "lifers" when he came on board.
Its also not unprecedented. Bagwell/Biggio got market rate to stay and nobody has any long-term regrets (even though one was past prime stat-chasing at the end, and the other had only one arm). Franchise cornerstones have value... especially those that actually were vital to championships. Granted, they may not get statues of them erected (before they retire, nonetheless), but they will be the faces of this era (along with Yordan, JV) that people will ultimately remember the most.
MLB needs some sort of payroll tax adjustment when signing homegrown talent. At this rate, we're well on the way to bloated mediocrity with overspending on aging vets and still having only half a lineup. Imagine if we also paid Springer and Correa. System's broken.
