My estimation is that in FA, players have a goal to get about $10M per WAR. Obviously, team want to pay as little as possible but $8M per WAR is considered break even value. At 6yrs/ $156M the Astros are expecting Alex to get at least 19.5 WAR over the length of the contract. I think this is reasoable. He had 4.1 for both fWAR and bWAR at age 30. Based on Alex's overall profile, I would expect him to stay at this level another 2 years through age 32 season, then begin standard age regression of about 1/2 WAR per season. He may actually get a 1/10 or 1/5 WAR per season boost with a ball/strike challenge system implementated. That's 19.6 WAR and possibly up to 20.8. At $10M per WAR, considering Alex's off the field value they could probably pay him up to $196M over those 6 years before the contract becomes a "bad one"
Should Altuve be on the coaching staff, instead of playing? He's 4 years older than Bregman. It would be shocking to see him drop off that early. His biggest skill is his batting eye and that will age well. Gary Gaetti had a similar profile and was effective through age 39.
Altuve will not make a good coach in my opinion. His skill set is unique to his position and to his life experience and is not really teachable. Bregman's biggest skill as a player is his defense at third base. That will drop off at an increasing pace and he will become replaceable by a younger player for far less money after the next few years. During those years his value to the team will be more and more obviously his ability to recognize ways to improve aspects of play all over the diamond. He is currently the Astros player with the highest baseball IQ and that will only improve with age.
Not sure these two belong in the same post. Bregman is a player that must be dealt with this fall or lost. There is plenty of time to decide what to do about Tucker.
Except that 2026: $93M CBA salary for 5 players. Add $26M for Alex and that becomes $119M for 6 players $17M for LMJ falls off in 2027 but leaves $102M for 5 players. That does not include guys like Pena, Diaz, Brown, etc who are in arbitration and also inflating the payroll. Can the Astros have over $125M for 6 players on the books? That would only leave about $100 M for the entire rest of the 40 man roster once you figure in benefits and costs. Can the Astros afford to keep both Bregman and Tucker? I don't see how. Therefore the question us relevant now.
Tucker may not choose the Astros in any event. And the Astros might not be interested in a $300 million contract for a superstar who comes up small in the playoffs. Aaron Judge has a rep for being bad in the postseason but he's been much better than Tuck in a similar number of ABs.
He doesn't even need to go back that far.... who will George Springer or Carlos Correa call as their "franchise home" post playing days? I do think he values winning/competing more than some of our past FA departures... and since he's already made over $100 million in career earnings, he's not at the same level of "must take biggest offer no matter what" stage that others on their first FA foray typically are. He's not going to go anywhere that isn't expected to win.
I agree that if offers are close, Alex will consider situation above money. But they have to be close.
