They do have a top 3 payroll but are getting diminishing returns. That was never "business as usual". We're also getting a better idea of ceilings of guys like Pena and Meyers. Lastly, while letting people go when there was obvious replacements (Springer - Tucker, Correa - Pena), it starts to get a little iffy with Bregman's. I'm not sure sticking with the status quo is necessarily the right answer... nor is it the wrong answer... but the "this strategy worked, must continue it!" is not as reassuring because the variables/parameters have changed. I'm just against the "presumption" that they will just stick with the "formula" as if its written in the bible. Franchises that don't alter/adjust strategies, or come up with new novel strategies, do end up faltering as well.
We're also not the 2011 Astros. See above for the new revenue streams that Crane is expected to tap into to justify spending. Still doesn't mean guaranteed top 3 payroll, but the parameters have changed.
Just telling you what's wrong and the easy fix would be to bring in a guy like Petula to run the org and get back to the principals that made this org a dynasty. They've gotten away from what made them great.
My point is this is all about money and Crane can afford to go above the CBT if he wants and he definitely can afford to. He may not want to, but the idea that you can’t go above this threshold and be competitive is an excuse owners have created to spend less money. Crane is better than a lot of owners, but he still could easily spend more. You are right, the Astros annual operating profit is 4x that of the Dodgers and the Astros could put some of that money back into player salaries or lowering ticket and concession prices and still be making a ton of money.
BH: The Astros have no way to draft their way to a core as they have not had a pick in the top 30 available prospects in many years. The team is too old to remain competitive and too frightened to do what it takes to get back on track. Starting with recognizing the talent already in the system it is easy to see your way to another decade of dominance. SGMH: The problem the last couple of years (even though we made the playoffs and went deep last year) is that we had to use the trade deadline to salvage the roster, rather than perfect it. This year especially, we had too much to salvage on the pitching and hitting side, and could only salvage the pitching side. BH: The pitching side is a good place to start, it resolves quickly. Trading Framber, Garcia, Hader, & Pressley this winter all for a couple of high quality bats and a couple of short season fliers. Following up with trades of McCullers Javier and France as soon as they become available. As to position players Tucker, McCormick, and Meyers should go along with Leon and Alvarez, Pena and Dubon. That is a ton of value and along with the prospects already in our system should be enough to put together the core of a potent young team. SGMH: The problem coming into the future is that our prior drafted and developed foundation are hitting free agency and leaving, and at least on the position player side, there is no new crop of young core pieces. That is why I am adamant you cannot lose both Bregman and Tucker.[/QUOTE] BH: Bregman is almost certainly already gone and Tucker is more valuable as a trade piece than a prop to lean on. This thread is a little long and I have some work to do today. Will return later today.
BH: Bregman is almost certainly already gone and Tucker is more valuable as a trade piece than a prop to lean on. This thread is a little long and I have some work to do today. Will return later today.[/QUOTE] This is the old catch 22 With a system like this ( full of solid complimentary pieces but almost empty of potential impact players) you can not rely on prospects maturing and replacing the Bregman's and Tucker's who become FAs. It's too expensive and very short sighted to build through FA. That leaves trading away the stars before they hit FA. The problem is that you will never (almost never) trade away X value and get X value back in the same year if you are building and not maintaining. So at some point you need to rip off the band aid and expect a down season or two.
So the solution is to burn down the team, starting by trading our top SP, top 2 RP, our entire OF, and our SS, and then dropping 4 more good SP when and if they become healthy. Leaving Altuve as the mascot on a 100 loss squad. What a depressing future you envision. Meanwhile revenue drops as people don't watch in person or on TV, don't buy merch. You hope that some of these nameless, faceless prospects that you haven't identified come through to form the "core of a potent young team". Meanwhile, the pieces you discarded are winning in other venues. No thanks.
This is the old catch 22 With a system like this ( full of solid complimentary pieces but almost empty of potential impact players) you can not rely on prospects maturing and replacing the Bregman's and Tucker's who become FAs. It's too expensive and very short sighted to build through FA. That leaves trading away the stars before they hit FA. The problem is that you will never (almost never) trade away X value and get X value back in the same year if you are building and not maintaining. So at some point you need to rip off the band aid and expect a down season or two.[/QUOTE] I think a down year in 25 and perhaps the first half of 26 is all it would take. Properly executed his does not need to be a long process. The last rebuild took a long time because we started with nothing.
There are two primary ways owners make money from owning a team. One is through annual profits. Two is through team's value increasing such that the owner makes money at the sell of the team. Forbes has the Astros making $30M more in annual profits before taxes, etc. The Dodgers value went up by $700M more than the Astros. I'm pretty sure Crane would gladly spend the extra $30M if it meant his team's value went up $700M more. Being in LA has its benefits.
We wouldn't really know. Only the Braves are somewhat open as they are owned by a publicly traded company. The Braves pretty much operate the way I want to see a team operate. The reason estimates would be different is because the Dodger's estimated expenses are much higher. Personally, I don't think ownership should need to put additional funds into the team to keep it afloat. If they are taking substantial distributions out of the team, then that is something different.
For all the talk about Lunhow and his genius, he had the advantage of never being under any kind of fiscal restraints, because he was gone before any of the Astros' stars became free agents. We have no idea how he'd have handled a team that actually had to make difficult financial decisions. He never signed a major free agent in his prime, nor did he ever have to let one go. That's not a knock against him - he was just early enough in the cycle to not have to make many real tough decisions. I'd have been curious how he handled the post-2019 talent exodus.
No, your strategy is to get used to losing by jump-starting the losing process. What you are proposing has literally never been done in a way that led to a "young contender". Baseball doesn't work that way. Prospects are too iffy. Look at the number of highly touted prospects who fail to break out or even at times to make it to MLB.
The value of the team has gone up $1.6 billion since Crane initially purchased the team in 2011. He's basically quadrupled his investment while turning a profit annually. I'm not saying he's got to spend $ on the club; it's his money, not mine. But he can afford to spend if he wants to. Owning the Astros has been very good to his bottom line.
Sure would've liked to find out. I bet they would've remained strong in signing Latin American hitters and pitchers. Honestly his drafts were kinda meh after the high draft picks. He made his hey in the Caribbean.
I think his bat will translate well enough that he might be up after the all star break. It's why I think that only 3 of the 4 holes need to be filled, while a 4th hole can be filled with a MLB min guy like Gamel/Whitcomb platoon until Baez is ready.
