I’m looking at it more like you end up with the player for the same amount of years, for more total money (given inflating contract prices)… and the built-in flexibility ends up leading to singing an injured Brantley, a Montero extension, an Abreu signing, etc. Obviously just nit-picking the deals that don’t work out. It does also get you to offer an early Yordan extension (that like Bregman, should have been a no-brainer) which also led to more flexibility given his willingness to take a really below market deal (with the possible wink-wink that you mentioned). I agree that they should decide either to be competitive enough to retain players for mostly all their prime years…. Or figure out if an 80-90 win team can get hot in the playoffs. Best way to stay out of the flukey 3 game series is to win more regular season games still, but the league is getting more and more parity to where it’ll be tough to see the 100 win juggernauts unless a team with a young talented 2017-like Astros core stays healthy (Baltimore being the main contender for that going forward). And even then…. That 2017 team NEEDED a last second JV trade for it to all work out.
Building a core of healthy young and talented players and filling it out with one or two high quality veterans was always part of Luhnow's plan. The Astros are not a young team but do have enough talented veterans to trade this winter and put together a young talented team to begin competing in 2026. The Astros 24/25 Winter should begin with trading high value veterans for a bunch of youngsters.
One of those high quality veterans was washed up Carlos Beltran after he traded for washed up Carlos Gomez. Josh Reddick, Brian McCann, Luke Gregerson, Charlie Morton, Uncle Mike and Pat Neshek were the more solid veteran adds. I even liked Feldman. He also drafted Brady Aiken, Mark Appel, (Forrest Whitley) as first round picks to go along-side the ones that turned into all-stars. I loved Luhnow and what he did for my team… but when you love somebody you also have the ability to see their errors as well. Crane still likely won’t trade anybody while the window is open.
The Astros should resign Bregman and extend Tucker and Valdez. I enjoy watching them play and like rooting for them. Crane is worth 2.5 billion and the team has gone up in value more than 6x since his group purchased it, so I don’t care about his pocketbook. Have I raised or lowered the quality of conversation?
There is more than just owner purchasing power and franchise value that determine MLB spending. There are additional penalties that escalate each year for spening beyond the CBT. It is a physical and historical fact that the vast majority of players simply don't perform at the same level due to age. What age is variable, but it's usually mid-30s which is during those long contracts. Free agent means free agent. Players have a say in this also and no owner can make them sign any contract that includes time beyond their initial controllable seasons. I want all 3 of those players back, but I don't want $80M on the books for terrible players 6-7 years from now either. And it's not all on Crane.
The formula is building your foundations through drafting and development, completing your team through free agency, and then perfecting your team at the trade deadline. The problem the last couple of years (even though we made the playoffs and went deep last year) is that we had to use the trade deadline to salvage the roster, rather than perfect it. This year especially, we had too much to salvage on the pitching and hitting side, and could only salvage the pitching side. The problem coming into the future is that our prior drafted and developed foundation are hitting free agency and leaving, and at least on the position player side, there is no new crop of young core pieces. That is why I am adamant you cannot lose both Bregman and Tucker.
I agree with this 100% As more on field success and penalties have reduced the quality of players brought in to the organization and trades have further reduced the best of those, the previous "next man up" philosophy becomes less and less effective. It's not about the quality depth, guys like Jake Meyers and Jerrmy Pena, these issues don't prevent those types from being in the organization. It's the top end future stars that are missing. 2019: Whitley #7, Tucker #8, and Alvarez #44 overall, were all 60 grade prospects. Josh James, Corbin Martin, and J.B. Bukauskas were also in the top 100. 2024: Jacob Melton is #89 with a 55 grade and the lone Astro on the top 100 (and he has a serious hit tool issue). At this point, the team should identify which players want to be here and are able to be extended early but also who a potential replacement is. Shay Whitcomb and Pedro Leon are probably the only 2 legitimate prospects who have done all they can to develop in AAA. Whitcomb is best suited for LF and Leon right field. Neither would probably set the league on fire in 2025. Dezenzo, may end up at 1b but has a chance to stick at 3b, and Melton is a CF. Both benefit from additional time in AAA. The common denominator here is there are no 3b ready to start 2025. It's too late to extend Tucker. The time was 3-4 years ago when a 10 year contract would not extend past his mid 30s and arbitration lowered the AAV. (like Yordan's) Signing Bregman is going to hurt, but it's the best option. That way Dezenzo can focus on 1b 100% in AAA. Sign a lefty hitting OF (Gamel, Heyward?) to be 4th OF and as insurance for Whitcomb in LF. Start him vs several RHSP that are tough matchups for the rookie. I would keep Tucker. His bat is needed to compete and the prospects simply aren't ready yet to replace him. If you can manage, trade for an everyday starting CF. Robert? I truly think the hitting talent is coming, but still 2-4 years away. This time, extend the stars early if possible.
They should fill the holes in the lineup if they want to stay on top. They've got the pitching to compete for championships for years to come. I'm not against trading Tucker because he can't hit in the playoffs. If he had hit like he did in the regular season the Stros would have had a chance at another ring.
I understand about trading Tucker. I've been going back and forth myself. This team needs the kind of talent infusion that trading Tucker can bring. The problems are: 1) they still need to get to the playoffs, and hopefully w/ a bye - and Tucker helps as much as anyone with that and 2) even with Tucker this team is short on bats (now WAY short with Alex a FA).
Yep, nobody is perfect. However some of the guys you listed weren't washed up and nightly contributed to the 2017 championship. CFM should never have to buy a beer in H-Town again. Reddick, Brantley, McCann also weren't washed
They've got a guy like Baez in AA and Melton, Whitcomb, Dezenzo in AAA. The cubbard isn't bare. They really need for Dezenzo to come through at 3B. I'm hoping Baez tears it up and is at MMP by the all star break. That guy can hit.
I agree the cupboard isn't bare. It's just that none of the guys project to be Yordan, Tucker, Bregman, Springer, Correa, or Altuve. Everybody is on a whole different level.
The only reason these penalties exist is because owners don’t want to spend money and want fans to think future flexibility is something to root for vs actual players. The Dodgers have been above the threshold since 2021 and projected to be above it for the next several years. Somehow they are still doing OK.
The Astros have been "playing the middle" for the last 5 years, allowing superstars to leave, trading for players, developing new players, never trading key players, etc. They've also been the most successful franchise in baseball. The idea that the Astros need to blow up everything they've been doing for the past half-decade because they didn't make game 7 of the ALCS one year seems shortsighted to me.
I don't know that Crane if changed - I also don't know why he would have. It's not like he regrets not signing Correa or Springer or Keuchel to long-term extensions. Gerrit Cole would have been nice, but 9 years to a pitcher is well beyond anything he'd realistically consider. And the two times he has shelled out longer deals than other teams were willing to offer haven't worked out. If I'm Crane, the only lesson I've really learned from the last ten years is probably that long-term free agent deals hasn't work out very well whereas trusting my talent development has worked wonders. Imagine if the Astros had poured all the money into starting pitching that fans insist on every year vs them developing this endless pool of elite starting pitching that you pay virtually nothing to, freeing up money for other improvements.
