This will be a hot topic going forward.... Bregman - EDIT: Changed title since Tucker is also due. Thanks @Pringles.
Translation: “We were very far apart on all extension negotiations over the last 6+ years and we know he’s going to demand more than we are willing to pay. After the season is over we will let Boras know parameters of a pillow contract we would offer so he can use it as leverage to drive up Alex’s price to other teams. We were fine after losing Springer and Correa and we’ll be fine after losing Bregman and Tucker.”
Crane absolutely has the ability to sign Bregman. The 2025 payroll is already very high, so it would require a 2nd year above the CBT and the penalties that come with that, but it should be easy to duck back under in 2026 so it wouldn't be tragic. It's not realistic to think the Astros can sign more than 1 of Bregman, Tucker, or Framber though because then the penalties become extreme as the team will likely stay above the CBT for several consecutive seasons. They may let all 3 go, but if 1 is to be signed, I think it should be Alex. 1) His position would be the hardest to fill either internally or from external options. 2) His contract expectations have to be significantly less than Tucker's. 3) He is much more likely to stay healthy and above average for 5+ years than Framber (as a starting pitcher). Most fans don't realize that Framber is actually older than Bregman, though it is marginal.
7/200 is the most I would offer Bregs, I'm not even sure I'm comfortable with that. Some team will likely outbid that, and if it happens so be it. He just isn't impactful enough offensively to justify a 250+ mega contract.
Whatever happens here will be a pretty good litmus test for what eventually will happen with Yordan when his bought out FA years are finishing. Either Altuve/JV will be the sole aggregate "long term deals" of the golden era.... or signing guys to earlier extensions paves the way for later extensions (as it did Altuve... and still could hold true for Breggy and Yordan).
Tucker would be such an easy decision to make if he never got hurt and kept playing like he did through the first two months, buy out the last year of Arbitration and give him 10-300, an eye that good doesn't decline with age. Instead, since he's gotten back, his walk rate has plummeted, he's lost 20 points on his OPS, and that's with a BABIP of nearly .400 (.381). Compare that to the numbers he was putting up with a BABIP of .245 through June 3. He simply doesn't look like the same player, and it will force nasty arbitration disputes next year. If he balls out again, someone will give him 12 years, if he doesn't, the Astros are a worse team for 2025. JV comes off the books this year, that frees up 20 million. If you let Alex walk and free up another 30, you need to throw that money at Tucker and eventually Yordan. Abreu also comes off the books after 2025 (20 million), just in time for Tucker's extension.
Framber is the hardest to replace and will be the most reasonable in both dollars and years. Tucker is under contract for another year, he will not need to be dealt with this off season. For good or ill, Bregman is gone.
Maybe nobody can be a perennial top 5 Cy Young guy but. . . 2026: Brown, Javier, McCullers, Arrighetti, L.Garcia, Blanco, France. That's 7 guys who have done it before and are legitimate MLB starters of varying caliber. You can not say that about 3B or RF. Framber is the easiest to replace.
I can say that I think 1 or 2 of Baez/Matthews/Melton/Dezenzo/Wwhitcomb/Cole etc... will be ready to be major contributors by 2026. If it was me, I would try to trade Pressly to fill one hole and trade some minor league guys to fill another hole in next yrs lineup. Then maybe sign a guy that can play 1B in FA. I'm looking at the Reds and Cards as possible trade partners.
For me it’s Tucker then Framber. But I think there will be a huge market for Tucker that may get that contract into the upper 300 million contracts. Gold glove at RF and MVP bat, starts the bidding war. Framber will command a high salary, but pitchers deals are generally shorter terms in years. So I think the Astros would more likely work out a deal with Framber over Tucker.
McCullers really? Lot’s of question marks in that SP rotation. I do think they should just sign Tucker to a monster contract and let the others walk. If we can get a good rotational 1b, we can probably get by with letting one of our youngsters cut their teeth at 3b. We will suffer for sure, but Tucker when healthy is a top 5 player in the league. The production drop off from Tucker will be far greater that the fall off from Bregman to Dicenzo or 1 or 2 year rental.
Do whatever it takes to keep Tuck and Framber. Let Bregman walk and tell JV bye bye. Wish they could dump McCullers contract also but I know that’s wishful thinking.
