http://myespn.go.com/blogs/truehoop/0-44-86/The-Great-NBA-Swap-Meet.html Kevin Arnowitz uses an interesting app from Queen City Hoops to predict what the effect would be of swapping out Al Thornton for Shane Battier. QTH's Brett Hainline explains the results: [rquoter] We are looking at both ends of the small forward spectrum: Al Thornton is a high-volume yet inefficient scorer who plays little defense. Shane Battier is regarded as one of the league's best defenders while being an ancillary player offensively, taking few shots but converting them at a high rate. My fascination with Allen Iverson aside, it frustrates me to see players recognized as being great when all they are really doing is shooting a lot (remember Adam Morrison making the All-Rookie team?). That pet peeve of mine makes this opportunity all the sweeter -- this is a chance to show what kind of impact those players really make. The first table shows actual statistics from last season. The efficiencies shown are for their respective teams: When Al is on the court for the Clippers, they had a net efficiency of -10.5, but with him off the court, they actually improved to -7.4. The reverse was true in Houston, as Shane helped the Rockets to a +4.9 mark, but that number dipped to +2.8 when Shane was on the pine. The last four columns are individual statistics. From those numbers, we can estimate how another player would impact a team by replacing someone. By taking the on court efficiencies of the Clippers, and the respective numbers for Al and Shane, we get the numbers you see in the first row of the second table. Notice a significant boost on both sides of the ball, as their offensive efficiency is predicted to rise by 2.4 points and their defensive efficiency is expected to decline by 2.6. Here is how we got there: Offensively, Al Thornton used a large chunk of his team's possessions, but was using them at a rate below that of his teammates - his 23.4 points from 23.1 possessions works out to an efficiency of 101.3, meaning his teammates were the ones boosting that offensive work. Shane was a low usage player in Houston, but if he replaced a player in a higher usage position, he might be called on to take some more scoring load. That is what the final term in the second equation is estimating: The difference in possessions used between the two players (23.1 - 9.7) is multiplied by the efficiency of Thornton's remaining teammates [(101.8 - 23.4) divided by (100 - 23.1) = 102.0] averaged with Battier's scoring efficiency [(11.2 / 9.7) = 115.5]. Defensively, we something similar, but this time the players are nearly identical in the possessions used category, so the improvement in defensive efficiency is almost entirely attributable to the improvement Shane represents. That gives us an estimate of what to expect with Shane on the court for the Clippers -- a 27 win team. It's not great, but it's 10 more games than when Thornton was lacing them up for them. But what about when Shane is not on the court? With injuries and age being a concern, we should account for the fact that Shane played over 600 minutes less than Thornton did last season, and that is what the final three rows look at. They're estimates of the team's overall efficiencies, including time with Shane on and off the court -- their whole season in other words. The initial row projects Shane to just use up all of Thornton's minutes, meaning the now less efficient off-court numbers are used the same amount as they were last season for the Clippers. Given the estimated improvement the Clippers could see with Shane on the court replacing Al, and the same amount of minutes going to the "bench," a weighted average of the on court and off court numbers puts the Clippers with an overall net efficiency of -6.1, good for 25 wins, which is still significantly better than their actual numbers from last year. However, what if Shane really does need to play fewer minutes? Due to age and injuries, he may be good for 2000 and no more. Well, the bench picks up those minutes, so instead of 1300 minutes going to a -7.4 efficiency group, they get 1900 minutes. 1900 minutes to a -7.4, 2000 to a -5.5, and the Clippers project to an overall efficiency of -6.4, dropping another win from total. The final row describes the case where the Clippers need more minutes from Shane than he could provide in Houston, and he obliges, but his knees still won't let him get all the way to Al's minutes. So, we say 2300 minutes with Shane on, 1600 with him off, and we get a -6.3 efficiency for the Clippers on the season, and they get back to 25 wins. [/rquoter]
How many more games would we lose if this trade went down? That's what I want to know. (yes, i know it's a hypothetical article)
http://www.queencityhoops.com/playerSwapPage.php We won 53 games last year. This app predicts that with Thornton instead of Battier, we'd have won 45 games.
I'm not a huge fan of these hyper-statistical quandaries. Thornton has a higher FG% than battier and create his own shots. He is younger and on the upswing. I see him developing into a Rudy Gay type player. I love Shane and everything he stands for, but this is no longer a team where his services will prosper. It would make my day to see this trade actualize.
I second what Francis said. The Clippers would be a great trade partner for us, I know some have even thrown out Kaman or Camby and fillers for McGrady or what not ( I know that was when we had Yao healthy) but this trade would be beneficial to both teams. One (The Clips) that are trying to get back into playoff contention who should have more than enough scoring with Gordon and Davis as the gaurds. They need a type of defensive leader, who better than Shane? For us it would be a great deal since we are trying to transition into a younger team to develop either with Yao and a new wing player in the future including our core of Scola, Brooks, Lowry, Landry and Ariza. We need to stop trying to hold on to Shane till he retires and try to get some type of young talent for his value IMO. If this offer were on the table I'd say just do it!
i am relieved to see i haven't jumped too late into the discussion. i had to drop leebigez off at the ER after he read the thread title, so i was worried there would be too many replies by now.
i am glad you arent a GM Thorton is a nice young player but he is decentat everything and not great at any one thing. most often than not he doesnt play within a team system. Thorton at best could be actually a candidate for 6th man of the year if he came off the bench somewhere but as a starter i would rather have shane even with this team of "no stars"
Exactly, Dunleavy's Princeton offense doesn't seem to suit Thorton so why not put him in Adelman's read and react (cut and slash to the whole) which he may fit a lot better. At least I think that's what Dunleavy runs... Anywho, I'd say he'd fit our more uptempo game than Shane would don't ya think.
sorry truehoop, but I don't see Morey ever pulling the trigger on this trade. It pretty much goes against any move he would make historically. We would be getting younger, but not better.
If Rox are ever going to win a title, we need Shane here. He is such a great teammate and such a chemistry builder, and yet, his salary is not very high. For the whole Clipper's squad, I would only trade Shane for Griffin, not even Baron Davis.
lol@thecabbagge, I actually wouldn't trade battier for thornton because we signed ariza and tracy will be here at the start, but if you're trying to win something this year, I would like to see a package with camby. If you were looking to the future I would like Jordan. I would trade anyone as long as we got good compensation that fits our plan, whatever that is. Now if they traded tracy, I would be cool with getting all then and having a thornton/ariza swing combo.
My problem with data like this is what they leave out. The rockets went 10-5 to start the season without shane which equals 66.6 winning %. If you stretch that even with a injured tracy and new artest, that equals 54 wins. So you could argue minus shane and a gimpy tracy, the rox are just as good. I'm not going to say that this scenerio would hold true for the season,but stats can't be the end all be all because of the human effect.
he also mentions that on that without the star power he played with here he would probably take on more scoring responsibilities...tmac and ron were both out for what makes up an extended period and shane didnt break 8ppg... i love shane, but the thought of getting thornton is pretty dang exciting.
If Ariza plays the same minutes Artest got last year, it predicts 57 wins (4 game improvement). If he plays the minutes he got with LA, it predicts 53 wins (no change).
