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Top US General says number of capable Iraqi Battalions drops to one!

Discussion in 'BBS Hangout: Debate & Discussion' started by tigermission1, Oct 2, 2005.

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  1. tigermission1

    tigermission1 Member

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    http://ap.tbo.com/ap/breaking/MGB60MB97EE.html

    From three to one...I would call that progress!

    Top U.S. General Says Number of Capable Iraqi Battalions Drops to One

    WASHINGTON (AP) - The number of Iraqi battalions capable of combat without U.S. support has dropped from three to one, the top American commander in Iraq told Congress Thursday, prompting Republicans to question whether U.S. troops will be able to withdraw next year.

    Gen. George Casey, softening his previous comments that a "fairly substantial" pull out could begin next spring and summer, told lawmakers that troops could begin coming home from Iraq next year depending on conditions during and after the upcoming elections there.

    "The next 75 days are going to be critical for what happens," Casey told the Senate Armed Services Committee.

    The Bush administration says training Iraqi security forces to defend their own country is the key to bringing home U.S. troops. But Republicans pressed Casey on whether the United States was backsliding in its efforts to train Iraqis.

    In June, the Pentagon told lawmakers that three Iraqi battalions were fully trained, equipped and capable of operating independently. On Thursday, Casey said only one battalion is ready.

    "It doesn't feel like progress," said Sen. Susan Collins, R-Maine.

    Despite the drop, Casey hailed significant progress in training Iraqi security forces and noted that U.S. troops are embedded with more Iraqi units in mentoring roles than before. "Have we lost ground? Absolutely not," Casey said.

    Casey said the Pentagon's standard for what constitutes a fully capable Iraqi battalion is high and that it's been difficult to ensure logistical support for Iraqi units. "I understand how it could be perceived as disappointing," he told Collins.

    Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., questioned why the generals are discussing troop withdrawals when it's clear Iraqi security forces aren't ready.

    "You're taking a very big gamble here. I hope you're correct. I don't see the indicators yet that we are ready to plan or begin troop withdrawals given the overall security situation. And that just isn't my opinion alone," he said.

    Casey, the most senior commander of coalition forces in Iraq, said the result of the upcoming Iraqi referendum on a new constitution on Oct. 15 and December elections will affect whether conditions on the ground will be appropriate for withdrawing U.S. troops.

    By the December elections, Casey said, the number of Iraqi security forces available will rise to 100,000, allowing the United States to ask for only 2,000 more U.S. troops compared with the 12,000 extra needed during last January's elections.

    He and Gen. John Abizaid, the commander of U.S. Central Command, were testifying before the Senate and House Armed Services committees alongside Defense Secretary Donald H. Rumsfeld and Gen. Richard B. Myers, the outgoing chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff.

    The hearing came on a day when five American soldiers were killed by a roadside bomb in Ramadi in western Iraq. That brought the number of U.S. troops who have died in Iraq since the war began in 2003 to 1,934, according to a tally by the Associated Press.

    President Bush sent the group to Capitol Hill for back-to-back House and Senate hearings to try to convince lawmakers - and their skeptical constituents - that the United States is making progress in the war despite slipping support at home.

    Before the Senate panel, the generals warned that defeating the insurgency would take time. "To be sure the next couple of months are going to be tough," Casey said, warning that the insurgents will ramp up their efforts in the coming weeks to try to affect the political process.

    While the Bush administration has refused to set a timetable for the withdrawal of U.S. troops, Casey has repeatedly said a "fairly substantial" pullout could begin next spring and summer as long as the political process stayed on track, the insurgency did not expand and the training of Iraqi security forces continued as planned.

    But when reporters asked Casey on Wednesday whether he still believed that to be the case, he said, "I think right now we're in a period of a little greater uncertainty than when I was asked that question back in July and March."

    "Until we're done with this political process here with the referendum and the elections in December, I think it's too soon to tell," Casey said.

    Congress has not held a hearing on Iraq with top officials since before its August break.

    Back home in their districts, lawmakers heard from constituents whose discomfort about Iraq was reflected in polls showing sliding support for Bush and the war effort.

    Republicans have increasingly started expressing concern, although most continue to support the president, while Democrats have begun to intensify their criticism of Bush's Iraq policy as the U.S. death toll approaches 2,000.
     
    #1 tigermission1, Oct 2, 2005
  2. FranchiseBlade

    FranchiseBlade Member
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    Let's just stay the course. It is working so well.
     
    #2 FranchiseBlade, Oct 3, 2005
  3. krosfyah

    krosfyah Member

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    It would have been nice to promote democracy by dethroning Sadam. And giving puppies to everybody would be nice too.

    But that also would mean there is a lot of poo to clean off sidewalks too.
     
    #3 krosfyah, Oct 3, 2005
  4. glynch

    glynch Member

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    Why do you hate the troops?
     
    #4 glynch, Oct 3, 2005
  5. gwayneco

    gwayneco Contributing Member

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    Here's a more detailed analysis of the situation:
    ***​
    http://billroggio.com/archives/2005/10/training_the_ir_1.php

    October 07, 2005
    Training the Iraqi Army - Revisited, Again
    By Bill Roggio

    The issue of the number of “fully operational Iraqi Army units” has raised its ugly head yet again. The “news” that the number of “fully operational” Iraqi battalions dropped from three to one has created quite a stir in media and political circles, however the hyperventilation over this issue is misplaced. Iraqi security forces rated as Level 2 or 3 units are fully engaged in the counterinsurgency effort.

    This issue is not new to longtime readers of The Fourth Rail. In June, we discussed the meaning of “fully operational” and the media’s misrepresentation of this term. This article was followed with information obtained from Austin Bay’s visit to Iraq, which verified that the media’s definition of fully operational is seriously flawed.

    In August, we discussed the meaning of Levels 1 thru 4, which define the operational readiness of the Iraqi security forces, explained that Level 2 and 3 units are fully engaged in the fight, and discussed the Iraqi Army’s efforts to create their own logistical capabilities.

    Two days ago, Lieutenant General David Petraeus, the recent commander of Multi-National Security Transition Command in Iraq [the man responsible for training the Iraqi security forces], gave a detailed briefing on the state of affairs in the training program and the progress of the Iraqi Army [well worth reading in full]. He summarized the status of the Iraqi security forces and defined the meaning of the level designations.

    There are now over 197,000 trained and equipped Iraqi security forces. As folks have noted over the past week, that should be close to 200,000 by the referendum in the middle part of this month. There are over 115 police and army combat battalions in the fight. Most -- about 80 -- are assessed as fighting alongside our forces. That is level three, by the way, in this discussion of levels of readiness. Over 36 are assessed as being "in the lead" -- that's the term for level two -- including the one that is assessed as needing no coalition assistance whatsoever; i.e., fully independent. That does not mean, by the way, just fully independent operations, it means it doesn't need anything from the coalition. And again, it is not surprising that there are very, very few of those. Of those 36, a substantial number -- some seven just in Baghdad alone -- have their own areas of operation and, of course, that obviously includes a large number of level two units.
    General Petraeus provides some examples of how Level 2 and Level 3 units participated in combat, despite not being “fully operational.”

    More than 10 Iraqi battalions of the 3rd Iraqi Division, the Border Force and the Police Commando Division were operating in western Nineveh province during the fighting in and around Tall Afar. Sixteen Iraqi battalions from several different divisions -- police and army -- are now fighting in Anbar province with our forces. Now, the bulk of those are in eastern Anbar province in the Fallujah/Ramadi area, but a number are also now out in the western in those three operations that are being conducted out there. Some of these are level two. There are actually some that are level three. An Iraqi Police Mechanized Battalion -- level three, by the way -- now helps coalition forces secure the Airport Road. Three Iraqi battalions, all level two -- one, by the way, is a former level one that was just reassessed as part of the process -- those three secure Haifa Street, which was known as "Purple Heart Boulevard." And Iraqi security forces, as I'm sure you all know, now control the holy cities of Najaf and Karbala and a number of other locations.
    Additional (and excellent) commentary and analysis on this issue can be found at The Belmont Club, Murdoc Online (with a follow-up post), Major K and Tigerhawk.

    I have assembled a map and a few charts which hopefully help clarify this issue. The map from a CENTCOM briefing on September 29 shows the positioning of the Iraqi battalions in Iraq, by province. At the time this map was created, there were only thirteen battalion in Anbar, the number has been reported to have been increased to sixteen. This bears repeating: The Iraqi Army has yet to meet its full potential in Anbar, and the Coalition is already making progress against the insurgency.

    A disclaimer on the charts below: MG Petraeus is a bit vague on the exact number of Iraqi battalions (“There are over 115 police and army combat battalions in the fight. Most -- about 80 -- are assessed as… level three… Over 36 are assessed as being… level two.”) For simplicity’s sake the number of 115 battalions will be used. The breakdown of units in the second chart, “Security, Services, Number of Battalions”, seems to indicate 115 is the correct number. The discrepancy may be due to some esoteric units such as a Secret Service unit being organized as a battalion but not actually counted as a line battalion. All speculation, of course.

    Level Number of Battalions at Level Definition of Level
    1. 1 Units are completely independent; Units do not require air, armor, artillery, logistical support (supplies).

    2. 36 (estimate) Units are capable of independent operations, requires some level of logistical or heavy weapons support.

    3. about 80 (estimate) Units are capable conducting combat operations alongside Coalition forces.

    4 . Undefined Units currently in training, not in combat
    Total 115



    Security Service Number of Battalions
    Iraqi Army 80
    Police, Commandos 12
    Police, Public Order 12
    Police, Mechanized 3
    Police, Emergency Response (SWAT) 1
    Police, Other 7
    Total 115



    Security Service Manpower
    Police 68,000
    Border Police 17,000
    Army 91,000

    Secret Service 600
    Other 20,400

    Total Security Sorces 197,000
     
    #5 gwayneco, Oct 7, 2005
  6. wnes

    wnes Contributing Member

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    The question is do we know what percentages of these "Iraqi-forces-in-training" are insurgent infiltrates.
     
    #6 wnes, Oct 7, 2005
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