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Top 4 pick or Bust!

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by Trackwell, Jan 17, 2021.

  1. Jayzers_100

    Jayzers_100 Member
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    Tanking is not a proven strategy though. It’s a mechanism of luck. I don’t even think Stone plans to build this team through the draft if I’m being honest. Sure we’ll keep some future firsts, but he’s been quoted as saying “picks are the best form of currency”. Don’t be surprised if we stay competitive and rebuild through trades
     
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  2. JayGoogle

    JayGoogle Member

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    Tanking is less and less a viable strategy and one thing Silver has done well is to discourage it. They will continue to do so.

    You see less teams flat out tank for a few reasons now.

    1. The lotto is flattened out, So even if you just miss the playoffs you could get a good pick.

    2. Play in tournament, I could see this becoming a thing permanently. It adds revenue and discourages tanking. This along with added revenue for teams that make the playoffs means less want to tank it. Yall think those 'Earned It' jersey's are just for fluff? Teams love selling new jerseys.

    It's better to build a winning culture that will attract players.

    Also, is there a single team tanking this season? Detroit, that's about it. Other teams are giving their best shot at being competitive.
     
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  3. Denovo

    Denovo Member

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    Better to tank next year when we have full control over our pick. This year should be used to raise the trade value of our players to get more picks in the off-season.

    Worst talent in the west is ridiculous. At full health we can make the playoffs 6-8 or play in.

    would be a waste to tank and get the 5th pick and have to swap anyway.
     
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  4. Trackwell

    Trackwell Member

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    Better to tank both years
     
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  5. Plowman

    Plowman Contributing Member

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    I figured when we picked up Wall, that he would never play half a season for us.
    Same goes for Boogie.
    And if these two things happen, Oladipo's definitely getting dealt at the deadline.
    EG & PJ are going bye bye.
    We're probably not going to have to try to be bad.
    And OKC is going to be pretty awful themselves. The difference will be worth the risk.
     
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  6. StevieCrossover

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    If Fertita would have got pawned by Morey for ben simmons, we would be decent. Morey would have been ultimate GM if he woulda got Harden after he left Houston.
     
  7. HP3

    HP3 Member

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    That’s a stupid way to do it. Dude our Nets trade is built on luck???? And I guarantee you 53% is better than those picks conveying something good
     
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  8. Denovo

    Denovo Member

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    Not if you want to maximize the trade value of Wall Vic and Gordon. More picks/Young players etc.
     
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  9. PeppermintCandy

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    Another swing and a miss for that Westbrook trade.
     
  10. vick

    vick Member

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    Tilman, stop just stop..
     
  11. HP3

    HP3 Member

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    I know you guys want to do tings the “right” way but the smart way is to tank.
     
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  12. HP3

    HP3 Member

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    They will help with the tank.
     
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  13. ChillyPete32

    ChillyPete32 Member

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    Naw I don't think so. When you commit to full on Process tank you have to really be all in to do it. We have decent vets making a lot of money that collectively we'd have to attach picks to in order to get rid of. We've got what looks like a potential foundational piece in place. We've got a good player whose value we want to try to rehab in order to probably flip at the deadline or maybe even resign to do more of a reload than a full on tear down.

    Even if you're cynically in the "nothing matters but a ring" mode, which I personally think is misguided, then you'd at least have to think that if we end up giving OKC the number 6 pick or whatever then you are helping build a dynasty in the West with a big head start you are going to have to topple that also has the right to swap picks with us in a few years (the better they are the worse that swap is for us) and also potentially gets our picks if we still stink by then because we committed to a full on tank and couldn't get out of it.

    Let these guys play for a few weeks and see how it goes.
     
  14. Rockets4Life13

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    The Nets picks aren't that much of a gamble.

    Recent examples of how within a few years, organizations go from Championship caliber to being complete and utter ****:

    Boston Celtics were Champions in 2007-2008, with their best player, Kevin Garnett, being 30 years old, Paul pierce 29, and Ray Allen at 31.
    They had 4 really good years, then ended up being really bad.

    Lakers in 2008-2009 won the championship with Kobe Bryant being 30, Pau Gasol being 28.
    They started to stink in 2013-2014 with a record of 27-55. 5 good years.

    We have control over Brooklyn's draft for 7 years and there are multiple factors that are even worse for BKN than for those 2 teams which are:

    - None of the key players in the examples above were over 30, other than Ray Allen, who was the 3rd option for the Celtics.
    Durant (MVP of that team) is 33 by the start of next season. James is 31. Kyrie will retire or whatever the hell he does.

    - Pierce and Kobe were both drafted by their franchises and had roots within the organization. Neither Durant not James have any roots within brooklyn. They just used that team to team up. No one will stay on that team for emotional reasons and just bounce once their window is done.
    Given that, i think we have a good shot to get 3 good first round picks out of that deal, if everything works out perfectly for the Nets and close to 5 or 6 if Kyrie comes back and makes that locker room go boom.
     
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  15. Denovo

    Denovo Member

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    Too talented, and too many players with something to prove. We will have to trade them to tank.
     
  16. HP3

    HP3 Member

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    We aren’t that good when John Wall is running the show by himself. Nor is Gordon that consistent
     
  17. Trackwell

    Trackwell Member

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    This!!!
     
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  18. JayGoogle

    JayGoogle Member

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    The current draft lottery gives you 14% chance at winning the 1 pick if you tank. Right now we have a 9% chance at it...

    Odds go down significantly the closer you are to the playoffs (Less than 1%) to encourage those teams from dropping games at the end of the year to get into the lotto.

    It's just not a good strategy anymore it's why not many teams do it anymore. Sure, you'll have buyers and sellers at the half way mark as usual but other than that? You play to win.

    I'm all for building a strong culture of winning so that when players come to the Rockets they know it's to win instead of being a joke. Tanking was viable before Silver but he's made changes to discourage it almost yearly and I don't see him turning it around. Silver's history is he hates teams putting out bad products on the floor. He even MADE the Pelicans play Anthony Davis when he was going through their trade drama.

    It's just not the best strategy anymore, you can still luck into getting a top 5 pick with the new flattened lotto (As we've seen plenty of times now) and big name FA are attracted to teams that win.

    Butler turned down playing with CP3 and Harden because of 'culture' for example.
     
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  19. Denovo

    Denovo Member

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    Not bad enough to get a Top 4 pick either. We’ll have to get worse.
     
  20. HP3

    HP3 Member

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    Again gambling on Durant and Harden(two of the most skilled based players) because of age not working out is faulty. Thinking that Brooklyn won’t see any of this coming preemptively and won’t have contingency plans is also faulty. Lol and you all need to stop thinking Kyrie implodes the locker room. That’s wishful thinking. On the court no one will stop them and that’s really all there is to it. And if he really gets bad they can flip him or James or Durant in the second year. That is so much worse cause that means they are able to get assets to be good and not tank. This is what I’m talk king about it’s a much MUCH poorer gamble because there are too many moving parts. You are just illustrating why this trade was bad and why we had to tank. And btw Celtics had asests to keep them from being bad long term. And the Lakers up and tanked and that got them AD.
     

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