Now that the 1st half of the season is done, the Astros are 39-50. 10 and a half behind Milwaukee, it would be tough to get a good run going. I have faith we can do it, but my brain tells me we can't with the pitching we have. So the question is, can we still make the playoffs?
Suppose the Brewers go 0.500 the rest of the way - that puts them at 86-76. For the Astros to get to 87 wins, they'd have to go 48-25 the rest of the way - that's a 0.657 winning percentage. For comparison purposes, the Red Sox are the best team in baseball and have a 0.609 winning percentage this season. I don't think this team has the pieces to suggest a run like that is possible. No piece is dominant enough to carry the team on its own.
Dammit...I voted we can pull it off...then I read your post...and now I change my mind. I need football season to hurry up.
Lance Berkman on the radio this morning, when asked whether the Astros are buyers or sellers: "This isn't the same team as the last few years. We just work here. They're going to do whatever they're going to do." Awfully stoic.
they're likely too far behind, but... they're 10.5 games back of milwaukee and have 9 games left against the brewers. do the math. in both '04 and '05, they not only had to win a lot of games, but also hope for a lot of teams to lose a lot of games. this year, at least, they (somewhat) control their own destiny if they can pound milwaukee 9 straight times. i recogonize 9-0 against milwaukee is unlikely... but if they can do it, you only have to make up 1.5 games against the rest of the league. hell, go 7-2 against 'em (which is what milwaukee did against the astros in the first half), and you cut the lead in half. it bears mentioning - that's all.
So, they pass Milwaukee by beating them 9 times. What about StL and Chicago? If Milwaukee loses 9 games to the Astros alone, they will likely be passed by Chicago as well. There are a lot of teams to pass, and these ain't our 2004 or 2005 Houston Astros. Personally, I'm hoping they finish with at least 82 wins. I freaking hate sub .500 records.
This is where I feel the problem is - this isn't the 2004 or 2005 team. With those teams, you had 3 pitchers that you felt could go 3-0 at any given time. If you could just win one of the other two pitchers' starts, you could easily have a win 7-of-8 scenario and get on a bit of a streak. With this team, it's too difficult to get any kind of momentum. One day the offense will struggle. Then the bullpen will blow a lead. And some other day, the starting pitcher will get lit up. Without having any piece to rely on, it's hard to get any kind of consistent streak going. Technically, we can make up ground with the "win every series" philosophy, but realistically, they need a 8 game win streak or win 10 out of 12 or something like that somewhere in there - and that just doesn't seem likely.
Whoops - should have said that about the 2005 team. I have no idea how the 2004 team pulled off its run. I guess the offense just went nuts, but I don't really remember.
OK, so instead of being 10.5 games back with 3 teams to pass, we're 10 games out of the WC with 10 teams to pass.
It's not too deep of a hole. 10.5 in this division? Even w/the Brew Crew playing as well as they have been.. still not too big. Will it happen? Obviously the odds are against us. Obviously lower odds than previous years. But I don't think it's so deep a hole that it's time to blow everything up *just yet*. Give it maybe another 20-30 games after the break and see if we've made up ground on 1st place or if we've fallen back into any kind of a rut.
They'll never make the playoffs. It is a real pipedream. The Brewers are for real and the cubs are coming on. St. Louis may also pull a trade or 2 and get in the hunt. They need to start re-building now. They need to shop Lidge, Qualls, Wheeler, Jennings, Lamb, and Loretta to see what they can get. If they can get good return especially for Jennings or Loretta they should jump on it. They could even re-sign them as free agents after the year, if the price was right. We need to find out about Burke this season and do our best to replenish the minor league system. Get Boston, Detroit, and Cleveland in a bidding war for Lidge! No telling what you could get.
Lamb and Loretta make perfect sense to trade if you're going to be sellers because I think they'd both resign with Houston in the offseason anyway.
yeah, agreed. 10 games didn't seem THAT far from reality with half a season left. But hey, the Brew Crew hasn't had to deal with a Sheets injury yet. (Plus Capuano hasn't shown much this year) And maybe our rookie can run through the wall and Braun can hit it at some point.. Bill Hall is now out for a while.. and geez, Cordero has been pretty insane. maybe he'll implode.
This year's Astros team does not have the pitching staff to make a second half run this year. They'll get within 4-5 games, depending on how cold the Brewers get.
It's certainly too deep a hole, but I don't want to blow up the team or anything. They have begun to turn things around and show promise. If they play .600 baseball in the 2nd half, you know that there's a lot of things to build off of. Obviously if Ensberg will bring anything in a trade, you do that, but that's unlikely.
