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To Morey, what the real value of Bud, Brooks, Hill, etc.?

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by Rileydog, Jan 13, 2011.

  1. Rileydog

    Rileydog Member

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    Granted, all fans tend to like the young players on their home teams because of the fascination with potential. On Clutchfans, there are differing views of the "value" of players like Brooks, Buddinger, Hill, PatPat, T-Will, C Lee, and Lowry. We discuss their "value" in the context of what other teams would give up to get such young players with potential.

    Perhaps the more salient approach is to think about how Morey values them.

    Theory: Morey doesn't value them as much as we might or other GM's might because to Morey, it's fairly easy to identify these types of productive, young players.

    Be Daryl Morey for a minute and think about your track record in terms of being able to identify and obtain these type of players.

    Brooks = late first rounder
    Buddinger = mid 2nd rounder, bought for cash
    Hill = part of the return for a massive expiring contract
    PatPat = late lotto selection
    T-Will = traded a future first
    C Lee = for Ariza
    Lowry = for Alston
    Landry = bought early 2nd rounder for cash (I think)

    How about the misses?

    Jermaine Taylor = bought 2nd rd pick for cash
    David Andersen = I can't remember the details, I think we traded a 2nd rounder for him, then had to use a small asset to dump him.
    Joey Dorsey = bought 2nd round pick for cash (I think). (And Dorsey might stay in the league, he just didn't mature fast enough here).

    Any way you slice it, Morey's got a good success rate in finding productive, young, rotation players, that have some potential.

    There's no reason to think he can't continue to do that.

    Accordingly, this is "Currency" he can spend on gambles that may or may not work. If they fail, then he can just generate more currency. If he succeeds in landing a franchise type player, then look out. He can surround that player with more Brooks, Landry's, PatPat's, Buddingers, Lowry's.

    In any case, I think Morey's walking around with a reasonably fat wallet, very willing to spend and then reload that wallet.


    If this is all true, what should Les Alexander be willing to pay to keep Daryl as a competitive advantage.
     
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  2. gah

    gah Member

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    I agree, I’ve always felt Morey is that way. I'd also like to give credit to our coaching staff as well, most players in their hands have overachieved for us because the play them according to their strengths. I pretty much doubt a man like Avery Johnson would be as good in getting the most of young unproven players.

    I think is not an stretch to say that most players that have played for Adelman have been at their best while playing for him, it applies to a wide arrange of different players from top tier players like Webber and Bibby (he was, at least for a couple playoff seasons); to important role players like Christie, Landry and Bobby Jackson; to non-established players like Von Wafer… To Denniscd: This is your first chance of being appropriate, you can comment on this.
     
  3. trugoy

    trugoy Member

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    Let's not underestimate the coaching here.

    I wonder how good Morey will look if someone like Paul Westphal or Vinnie Del Negro or even JVG were coaching here.
     
  4. JuanValdez

    JuanValdez Member

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    The Achilles' heel to this line of thinking, I think, is that we cannot continue dumping guys we've developed and developing new guys when we're genuinely trying to contend. At some point, we need a stable roster of veterans to play and win games, go to the playoffs, etc. We're not going to get far with guys on rookie contracts. He can cash in these young guys for a legit building block and then reload once, but not again after that.
     
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  5. avb

    avb Member

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    I think you're right about him not valuing them as much as Clutchfans does, but I don't think other GM's also value them as much as Clutchfans does either. If other GM's did place a high value on them we would at least hear more serious trade rumors. Until then we're a mediocre team and all of our 'assets' really don't amount to much if we can't make the playoffs and other teams don't want our players.
     
  6. DaDakota

    DaDakota Balance wins
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    Looking at their past value is interesting, but not relevent to their current value.

    Got to look at their production in the NBA, I mean Tony Parker is not a low first round talent anymore, neither is Brooks.

    Manu Ginobli was taken 56th, is he that level?

    Look at NBA Production that is where you find their current valuation.

    And if you can't trade for a superstar, or get lucky and draft one, the next best thing is to bring in a lot of talented young players and hope you uncover that Jermaine O'neal type....

    DD
     
  7. gah

    gah Member

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    I think Rileydog's major point is not about discussing history here, it's about us not worrying in case we sacrifice quantity over quality in the near future. The message is that you can rest assured when or if Morey makes trades that deplete our roster because he has an extraordinary [this superlative is mine] ability to trade or find quality players that would complement our new building blocks.
     
  8. durvasa

    durvasa Member

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    Is AB a replaceable complimentary player to a building block, or is he one of the building blocks?

    Budinger and Hill are replaceable, IMO. Brooks's talents are more difficult to replace.
     
  9. DaDakota

    DaDakota Balance wins
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    True, but doesn't that depend upon whom we are getting in trade.

    If I misunderstood the point in my previous post, my apologies.

    IMO, they should look at ANYTHING.....right now the roster is unbalnced with too many wings and PFs.....we have only one backup center and we have 2 and 1/2 good PGs.....so if we can do a 3 for 1, or 2 for 1 deal to alleviate the pressure at the wings, that would make sense and allow the team some flexibility.

    Right now, they could not bring in a Sean Williams if they wanted too because they have 15 NBA level players...they need to trim their roster....

    DD
     
  10. gah

    gah Member

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    Well if we ever come across two All-Stars who are top 3 in their respective positions, I would like Alexander’s commitment to spend way beyond the threshold if it meant surrounding them with the best supporting cast available… before it’s too late.
     
  11. Easy

    Easy Boban Only Fan
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    If that is true, I am sure other GMs will figure that out too. Thus Budinger and Hill have less trade value than Brooks, and are less likely to be a part of a trade that lands us an elite player.

    I think the OP has a point. What's not replaceable is a true elite franchise player. Everything else can be had if you have a good enough talent evaluation system.

    Agreed. There's no sense to constantly make lateral moves, creating a revolving door roster without significantly upgrading the team. The key is a franchise player. Once you get that, you put a stable supporting cast around him.
     
  12. DaDakota

    DaDakota Balance wins
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    While the Rockets have been stumbling with injuries these last few years, Les and the team have been killing it at the box office.

    Partially because all those big contracts were covered by insurance, that money goes directly to the bottom line.

    So, if they have to overpay a bit to make this team a contender, seems only fair.

    But, then again, it ain't my money !

    DD
     
    #12 DaDakota, Jan 13, 2011
    Last edited: Jan 13, 2011
  13. gah

    gah Member

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    And Morey sees it clearly as well, from day one that was the goal with Yao and T-Mac. Our current ways began when our franchise players withered away, if that wasn't the case Morey would just tinker with the roster, trying to bat for hits instead of home runs.
     
  14. larsv8

    larsv8 Member

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    I once read something, can't remember if it was a book or an essay or something but the premise was following a guy who started out with a simple trinket of some sort. I think it was a pack of gum.

    The guy did nothing but take his pack of gum and trade it for miscellaneous things. I think he traded it for like a pack of pens, then each pen for something else. With each trade he added a little value back. By the end of the piece, after hundreds upon hundreds of trades, the guy had turned the pack of gum into a car without paying a dime.

    I envision Morey has read the same thing.
     
  15. Fierguard

    Fierguard Member

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    I do not believe Morey looks at the as players but rather "roles". Giving each player a grade in "roles" to come up with the mathematical concept for that player. I also do not think he cares the origin of the player so much.

    An example(Totally made up I live in New Mexico so I have no secrets):

    Chase Budinger SF
    3pt shooting B
    2pt shooting C
    FT shooting B
    Defensive positioning C
    Ability to Block shots D
    Help Defense D
    Ability to Create Turnovers D
    Ability to finish in transition B
    Ability to dribble C
    Ability to create C-
    Rebounding B
    Passing to Wide Open Man C
    Passing in traffic D
    Potential Upside B
    Other factors I am sure there are other metrics, space creation, double team percentage, turnovers, percentage of proper screens, etc that could go here.
    Salary this year:
    Salary total commit:
    Additional positions: None

    Overall Grade: There would be a raw score and then a team score... i.e the team needs shooting or creating more than you value those skills higher. Also the frequency that those skills show up in upcoming draft. Last what it would take to reacquire the skill set, if possible.

    So I see a system:

    Raw score + adjustment for team need + adjustment for frequency in draft + resources to reacquire skill set = team score.

    Or some variation there of. This makes it quantifiable.... so you can directly compare players. So you can say.... we get value for the trade... and here is why we score this guy a B and this other guy a B+ or 82 and 86 something along those lines.

    Fierguard

    Bleed Red Rockets Red.
     
  16. Mack

    Mack Member

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    I had exactly that thought not too long ago. The item from the story I remember was one red paperclip, and 14 trades later it netted him a house.

    http://oneredpaperclip.blogspot.com/

    Clearly Morey has been upgrading the team one small trade at a time. Maybe one day he can cash in some of those trade assets for a superstar, but so far, it hasn't panned out.
     
  17. Rileydog

    Rileydog Member

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    if I knew how, I would insert a picture of someone pointing 2 fingers towards your eye, and then towards mine -- the universal sign of people on the same wavelength.

    Somehow the original premise of some threads get lost as folks sometimes gravitate to debates that have previously occurred, or are somewhat related and currently hot.
     
  18. IceMan

    IceMan Member

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    He started with a paperclip.
     
  19. aicedo

    aicedo Member

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    I think that this hit it right on the spot. You can find role players and the Rockets have the best guy in the league at finding role players. But its just so hard to get that one guy you can build your team around. First, there has to be an elite player out there which Darryl cant control. Second, your team has to be in position to acquire that elite player if there is one. Thankfully we are in that type of situation at the moment. Third, the player has to want to play for your team. Basically Darryl is just waiting to pounce when that elite player finally becomes available. I don't see Carmelo on our team in the near future. Sorry to burst anyones bubble but refer to the third reason. So the only other elite player available MIGHT BE Andre Igoudala which in my opinion is as elite of a player as any. Im not going to post a trade proposal but we have some wings Phili might want. They don't need a point so that's why I just said wings. Come February we will finally see the light because I don't think Morey will just stand pat.
     
  20. GATER

    GATER Member

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    Problem...packs of gum or paper clips don't have a trade deadline or a % salary match.
     

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