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To extend KPJ or not?

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by Lachard Binkley, Jul 29, 2022.

  1. Corrosion

    Corrosion Member

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    By the numbers:

    True Shooting percentage - Porter Jr .531 - NBA Average .547

    2 point percentage Porter .415 - NBA average .476

    3 point percentage - .375 - NBA Average .365

    FT% Porter .642 - NBA average .730

    PPP Isolation - Bottom 18%.

    PPP Pick and Roll - Bottom 34%.

    Assist to turnover ratio 1.99:1 is outside the top 100 players league wide.

    I see nothing in the numbers that says we have to sign this guy at all, much less sign him to an above market value deal. I'd have to think long and hard about matching an RFA offer of the taxpayer MLE much less the $25m or more some of you are throwing out there ....

    The idea that "He might improve" just doesn't cut the mustard ....Sure, he might but 3 years in he hasn't done it, what makes you believe it happens now ?
     
  2. DaDakota

    DaDakota If you want to know, just ask!

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    21 years old, first time EVER playing PG.

    Those are great numbers for a kid that should have been a junior in college.

    DD
     
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  3. Reeko

    Reeko Member

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    in no universe are those great numbers…those are atrocious
     
  4. nemac

    nemac Member

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    It's bad but shouldn't 2p% being compared to guards at least. Hey he's above average at from 3, highlight it green :D
     
  5. Verbal Christ

    Verbal Christ Member

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    How long before the statistics patrol discredits THIS??? "Nahhh long 3's arent even that much of a thing he's usually wide open or the numbers are skewed he's just not that good the video may be a hoax" :D:D:D


     
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  6. Verbal Christ

    Verbal Christ Member

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    "What makes you think he will improve -- he is who is after 3 years I dont care that he spent a good portion of it in the GLeague year 2 and hopping between two rebuilding teams its his own fault cuz he's a mental I want to see win shares and cumulative stats that tell me he will be good -- no I mean super advanced stats and no I wont use eye test or apply judgement or context to the stats" :D:D:D

     
    #1966 Verbal Christ, Sep 15, 2022
    Last edited: Sep 15, 2022
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  7. Verbal Christ

    Verbal Christ Member

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    Why would any of these guys regress??? Why would "fans" expect the worst? Hmmm self serving opinion!

     
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  8. Joe Joe

    Joe Joe Go Stros!
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    Not really, though I think his Assist/TO will be better with more time at PG (i.e., it isn't great, but some of the bad isn't his fault). He's 9th out of 13 overall (minus centers as they can have high TS% because they are taking easy shots) among 21-year olds and 4th out of 5 21-year olds that play PG (at least using BR's designation) in TS%.

    Whether one wants to blame his scoring on defense, age, etc., he's taking way too many difficult shots instead of passing the ball to more efficient players. I expect KPJ's efficiency will get a lot better, but even a 4 percentage point increase in TS% will put him only in the average category.

    I don't know if KPJ will be great or bad, but pretending what he's done efficiency-wise is okay is deluded. Making better decisions with the ball has been his primary weakness.
     
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  9. ApacheWarrior

    ApacheWarrior Member

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    All because the Mavs had the Jazz number.

    I've mentioned it before that Rudy Gobert is a liability guarding the
    perimeter and the Mavs took advantage of it.
    https://thesmokingcuban.com/posts/dallas-mavericks-want-utah-jazz-2022-playoffs/3


    Brunson stats in the Suns and Warriors series were close to reg season.
    ........................pts....rebs...Ast....FG%....3P%
    Reg season.....16.3.....3.9.....4.8.... 50.2....37.3
    Suns-GSW........18.4....4.5.....3.4.... .45.4....33.3
    Brunson age 25


    I put less stats so people don't have to unlock screen and turn thrie phones
    sideways. Lazy people.
     
  10. DaDakota

    DaDakota If you want to know, just ask!

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    Efficiency comes with experience, comparing him to 30 year olds is disengenious at best. Why not compare him to former players when they were 21...and where they ended up? That would be more appropriate.

    Who else played their first year at PG at 21???

    Anything else is just garbage and hate.

    DD
     
    #1970 DaDakota, Sep 15, 2022
    Last edited: Sep 15, 2022
  11. AlperenSengun

    AlperenSengun Member

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    Instead of just wondering, we can look at what other players have done next to vs without star players. For example, you can find Brunson's stats without Doncic here:

    https://www.statmuse.com/nba/ask/jalen-brunson-stats-without-luka-doncic-this-season

    He actually scored more and assisted more without Doncic!!
     
  12. MystikArkitect

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    Cherry picking obscure stats and quoting obnoxious Twitter bottom feeders isn't the way to prove your point.
     
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  13. Verbal Christ

    Verbal Christ Member

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    When you lose your #1 option SOMEBODY has to pick up the slack right? Who else was going to be the engine Dorian Finney Smith? Similar situation with the young Rockets here without Wood in the lineup last season -- ALL of their stats improved. Brunson is a nice player no argument here other than he's not a vastly superior player to KPJ.

    The meaningful games comments still make me laugh though. One guy being on a playoff team most of his career the other(s) on an obvious tank and rebuilding team(s). I guess it was Jalen Brunson who carried Dallas to the playoffs!

    ANYONE would look great next to a generational guy like Doncic he makes the game easier for his teammates. I expect Wood to have a career year there. In the same breath I expect Dallas to make the playoffs easily yet again and New York MIGHT squeeze into the play in.

    I can only pray that by the time KPJ is 26 he can look as good as Jalen Brunson!
     
  14. Verbal Christ

    Verbal Christ Member

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    What is obscure LOL? Cmon now. Guys are posturing using other players from other teams in this precise scenario of output lacking #1 option and a Rocket fan cant do the same? Do you expect a regression without Wood in the lineup for any of these guys this season?
     
  15. King1

    King1 Contributing Member

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    The delusional KPJ fans are at least good for a laugh every day
     
  16. Joe Joe

    Joe Joe Go Stros!
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    I compared him to 21 year olds (not 30-year olds) in that post you just quoted and he was below average among PGs and among non-centers (would be worse if centers included). The players that score less efficiently than Porter are mostly rookies, Westbrook style ball hogs, defense-only players, and just bad players (i.e., there isn't a bunch of 3rd year 21-year olds less efficent than him).

    Former players played in a much different league, and his TS% numbers would likely look closer to average 15 to 20 years ago among 21-year olds (guessing without looking at the data). Though, 15-20 years ago, most 21-year old players likely didn't shoot nearly as many threes as KPJ did (i.e., efficiency has increased as 3-point shots increased). I don't see how comparing KPJ's numbers to 21-year olds who played in a league not as geared towards dunks, FTs, and threes would be more appropriate than comparing him to today's 21-year old players.

    There is nothing stopping you from grabbing data from past seasons and making comparisons. I suspect most players that improve a lot, do most of it before their 4th season (still growth, but not as big each season as the 1st 3). Maybe KPJ is an exception.

    KPJ had a lot of growth defensively last season and can do some great things on the court. If the Rockets were likely not going to be under the cap by a lot in 2023 and 2024, it would be much easier to extend KPJ. He should not get extended based on projections.

    The Rockets are still trying to find stars. Maybe KPJ becomes much more efficient and becomes one, but locking him up on anything, but a team-friendly deal likely hurts the Rockets chances of getting a star (i.e., even an appropriate salary for an average starter likely shouldn't happen even if one thinks he will be an average starter).
     
    #1976 Joe Joe, Sep 15, 2022
    Last edited: Sep 15, 2022
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  17. AlperenSengun

    AlperenSengun Member

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    Yes, being the number one option contributes to your stats. For example, that is why KPJ's assist numbers are mediocre, and not evidence of good play making. Brunson averaged more assists once Doncic is not in the line-up.

    People usually measure contribution by some sort of advanced metric, like winshares. It looks like he has done his part in carrying Dallas to the play offs.

    In the end, I agree that KPJ would be better playing next to Luka because playmaking is not his strength, and the pg position is not good for him. He would have to make less decisions and more opportunities to catch and shoot, attack the rim. But the improvement will mainly come from his role, which can be done here in the rockets as well.
     
  18. Easy

    Easy Boban Only Fan
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    This dude played his first year at PG at 20, on a team that just finished with 18 wins the previous season.
    [​IMG]
    His TS% was .546 at a time when league average was .536. His assist to turnover ratio was 3.39.
    The team won 38 games in his rookie season, improving from 18 wins the previous season.

    This dude played his first year at PG at 21, on a team that just finished with 13 wins the previous season.
    [​IMG]
    His TS% was terrible at .471. (He was never a good shooter until late in his career.) His assist to turnover ratio was 2.41.
    The team won 36 games in his rookie season, improving from 13 wins the previous season.

    This guy played his first year (but third year in the NBA) at PG at 21, on a team that just finished with 17 wins the previous season.
    [​IMG]
    His TS% was .535 at a time when the league average was .565. His assist to turnover ratio was 2.00.
    The team won 20 games in his "first year" as a PG, improving from 17 wins the previous season.

    I think it is safe to say, maybe with the exception of one or two fully delusional fans, that we are not comparing the third dude with the first two dudes. But we are talking about him being expected to be a "star" PG that is going to worth a max or near max. Those first two were true stars that played winning ball from their first season as a very young PG. What kind of "star" do you expect KPJ to be?
     
  19. Verbal Christ

    Verbal Christ Member

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    Win share argument doesnt work without context especially trying to compare playoff teams and their players to rebuild/tank jobs - move on to VORP like the others when trying to diminish KPJ it works better!

    6 assists per game is mediocre? Seems like the "average" for the NBA last year was 4.2. https://www.statmuse.com/nba/ask/nba-point-guard-assist-average-2022 ... would you agree that "average" and "mediocre" are similar words?

    Some guys can see the room for growth and further development and some guys are pushing a final product thats where the argument has evolved. Which one is more subjective? Which one is more sincere and in good faith? Why do any young players get extensions without the supporting sexy stat package? This is where the revolving door goes back to the "mental health" aspect and we can keep regurgitating the redundant arguments up to this point. Sounds like fun.

    Two more weeks before training camp! Im brimming with excitement myself. Everyone can finally see who was right!

    edit: Kevin Porter Jr was 26th in the NBA last season with 6.2 apg. He was sandwiched in between other "mediocre" guys like Lebron James and Shai Gilgeous Alexander.
     
    #1979 Verbal Christ, Sep 15, 2022
    Last edited: Sep 15, 2022
  20. flamingdts

    flamingdts Member

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    Let's be honest, when Jalen Green was struggling at the beginning of the season, I highly doubt you excused his poor play by saying he had to play with a PG in training. In fact, I'm pretty sure you advocated for him coming off the bench to learn how to play.

    Maybe the same thought process should also apply to KPJ. Let him run the bench unit so he can properly learn the PG role, and if the Rockets want to extend him now, secure him at a team friendly contract that is comparable to backup PG contracts.

    ;)
     

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