How much of a contender are we? It is not a question of dire need to know importance, but it lingers in the back of the minds of the fans, and should be in the minds of management as well. As the super powers of the west are sure to lock up the top five spots to the playoffs, that leaves the best of the rest to battle on the hardwood for the final three spots. It is not going to be easy for the Rockets as they are expected to be vying for one of the proposed final three entry spots into the promised land. The competition for the three spots will be stiff, as Denver, Houston, Seattle, Memphis, Utah, and Portland will all be looking to gain access to the post-season. (Hypothetical power rankings of seeds in the west) (27-9) - 1. Sacramento Kings (26-12) - 2. San Antonio Spurs (23-11) - 3. Los Angeles Lakers (25-11) - 4. Minnesota Timberwolves (21-16) - 5. Dallas Mavericks ============================ (23-16) - 6. Denver Nuggets (21-16) - 7. Houston Rockets (19-18) - 8. Memphis Grizzlies (19-17) - 9. Seattle Supersonics (20-17) - 10. Utah Jazz (16-20) - 11. Portland Trailblazers The Rockets have done little to separate themselves from the best of the rest and are currently a dismal 4-6, overall, versus the very teams that are eyeing the final three spots. Among the many issues that plagues the Rockets is their consistancy, or inconsistancy to be more appropriate. Not only is this inconsistancy on a game to game basis, it stretches much deeper than that, and occurs from period to period. Whether this is due to having the wrong personnel, poor shooting or both, it is, and has been, undoubtedly, a major problem for this team. Which brings me to another point: the shooting. If the Rockets struggle with their shooting (currently 21st in the league at 42.8%), they will have a hard time distancing themselves from the five other aforementioned teams who currently rank from fourth to thirteenth, respectively, in field goal percentage in the NBA. You may counter with the Rockets being first in the league in opponents FG% but I do not think that statistic alone supersedes what actually takes place on the offensive end of the court. In the ten games the Rockets have played versus the five competing teams thus far this season, the Rockets have gone 4-6. That span of games consisted of six home games and four on the road. Speaking of "the road", it has not been a comforting place for the Rockets against these teams, as they have gone 0-4. In those four losses, the Rockets shot an average of 41.3% from the field and turned it over, on average, roughly five more times than thier opponent (15.25:10.5). With ten games remaining against the best of the rest, and six of those ten being on the road, the Rockets will need to put it in "overdrive on the road" if they want to be more than a pretender. I have used this quote from Dr. Jack Ramsey before and I will use it again now: There are ten games that you know that you are going win and there are ten games that you know that you are going to lose. It's the other 62 games that you have to worry about. Well, for the Rockets, here is twenty of those "62" games, start worrying. Should the Rockets make the playoffs, not only are the shooting and consistancy still lingering, but there are other questions of concern as well. One of the concerns is that of depth. It is widely known that teams looking to contend in the post-season must have a strong bench. Judging by the looks of the bench and where and how the money is tied up throughout the roster, I suspect coach Van Gundy will have to shorten the rotation and maximize the output of the starters to counter the issues with the depth. Realistically, with these three concerns, among others, I just do not see the Rockets having a chance in the playoffs; that is, considering "if" they play well enough to get there in the first place. So what are the Rockets to do? Are they to go the way of the "Sun" and dismantle the much questioned backcourt, leaving the team to be built around their seven-and-a-half foot centerpiece, or are they to add a third star type of player? As risky as the first proposition seems, I think it is equally if not more risky for the latter to take place. Even if we add a third star-caliber player, are we at that point strong enough, still, to compete for a ring? I would have to say, "I don't know." There is still the concern with depth. And what about the payroll? The Rockets payroll will still be through the roof, and Yao's contract will need to be paid. And more importantly, let us not forget this may impede chemistry. Considering all of the factors, I feel the Rockets would be best served starting over and building a team with a winning philosophy and complimentary players to surround Yao Ming. It's the start of crunch time for Houston. With the half-way point nearing, and reality sinking deeper by each passing game, the Rockets management needs to look long and hard into the mirror and then ask themselves: With all things considered, Do we really have a shot to be NBA Champions?
id slot the nuggets ahead of the mavs, and i think the nuggets are going to start cooling off, says alot about the mavs as contenders in my book. they are just about the worst defending team in the league...and theres no sign of any change. ridiculous road record for a team that was the best road team last season
Really goes to show that you can't just hire a bunch of "All-Stars", put them on the same team, and expect them to demolish the rest of the league. I think the Mavs may have been better off not trading for Antoine Walker and Antawn Jamison. You can't underestimate the importance of a few good, versatile role players.
There is no question that the Rockets should have the 6 seed. Is Denver actually legit this season? Im starting to wonder if they'll keep it up for the rest of the season, thats pretty scary.
This is, in part, was what I was referring to in reguards to adding a "third star-caliber" player. One of the Maverick's main problems right now has to do with team chemistry. Aside from everything else that is wrong, the Lakers are being exposed to the downsides of this as well, albeit a very low level, but it is there.
Isn't it funny how most of the sports writers who are paid to write about basketball suggested the Rockets would slightly improve their record and probably just slip in as the 7th or 8th seed in the west? Funny because, well, it seems to be true. For all the ups and downs, the Rockets have a chance to be even better than was predicted. Funny.
Actually, the Rockets are very consistent. They consistently beat teams that are bellow .500. And they consistently struggle against the better teams in the league. See here . What it means is that they are fairly disciplined (probably defensively) in beating the teams they are supposed to beat. But defense can't always stop a good team from scoring. That's why they don't win against better teams regularly. In other words, the Rockets are good enough to get a playoff spot near the bottom of the field. But they are not good enough to hang with the big boys. That means one round and out in the playoffs.
My money's on the Rockets to finish ahead of them. gunn uses a lot more stats and less sybolism than MacBeth.
Helluva post gunn. you should post more often... I think if the Rockets are looking to sign Mark Jackson we all need to be concerned. I hope we can get in the playoffs and do something but if we end up playing the Spurs it might get ugly.
For the MacBeth conspiracy theorists, page down about half-way: http://bbs.clutchcity.net/php3/showthread.php?s=&threadid=71119&perpage=30&pagenumber=3
This actually may be one the only times, if not "the" only time that I will use stats as propaganda. I do not believe by looking at the stat sheet you will get a true representation of what actually happens on the court, or diamond or field for that matter. In using these stats, they are not the backbone of my thoughts, but they are used as a rudimentary support to show the inconsistancy and poor shooting against these five teams. The numbers most everyone concerns themselves with are the numbers that hang in the win/loss column. But even those numbers do not guarantee success. The numbers that are lost in all of this is that they are 0-4 on the road versus these teams and yet still have ten more games versus these very teams with six coming on the road. These are more of the numbers the team should concern themselves with if they plan on making the post-season. What the stats do not tell is that of the four wins in the first ten games, all came at home and of the two biggest, the first came against a young Denver team trying to find an indentity in the opening game of the season and the second coming from an injury plagued Utah. I am not ruling the Rockets out of the playoffs, but they sure are not guaranteed a spot in either. Do I think the Rockets are a serious contender this year? No, and in fact, I do not think they will be a serious contender next year as well.
