I'm not sure who is to blame here, but this is getting a little ridiculous. For the third time this year, the opposing team had the ball against the Rockets up 3 with 30 seconds. For the third time this year, the Rockets fouled. This is one of the stupidest things I've ever seen. It's not like there was 26 seconds, where the opposing team can take it close to the buzzer. 5-6 seconds is plenty of time in the NBA. First, let's look at what happens if you foul, as the Rockets have repeatedly done. It's extremely unlikely that the opponent misses both free throws, and dependent on the shooter unlikely that he misses one. Let's assume though, for the sake of argument, that he misses one of two, and the Rockets are down 4. This is with about 30 seconds left. Again, let's assume the Rockets go down and get a relatively quick floater from Steve, Cat, or Moochie. It's a 2 point game, with about 16 seconds left. They foul again, let's say with 13 seconds left, and let's assume again that the opponent only makes 1 of 2 free throws. Then, the Rockets are down 3 with the ball at halfcourt with around 13 seconds to go. This is under the best case scenario. If the opponent only shoots 50% from the line on two different trips, the Rockets make a quick basket at the other end, and the Rockets get all the defensive boards, the Rockets would have it at halfcourt down 3. Again, this is dependent on the Rockets playing perfect basketball and the opponent choking. The alternative, to me, is a lot more safe. If you play solid defense, you're likely to get the ball at halfcourt with 6-7 seconds left. Yes, I know a stop is not a given. However, in this scenario it actually becomes pretty likely. The majority of the time the opposing players are so concerned with burning all the time off the clock that they have to throw up a prayer as the shot clock expires. IMHO, if you foul, there's about a 20% chance that you get the ball back down 3 with about 13 seconds. If you don't foul, there's about an 80% chance that you get the ball back down 3 with about 6 seconds. I'd prefer to play the percentages, especially considering that Steve, Cat, and Mooch wouldn't start heading to the basket until about the 5 second mark anyway. Does this bother anyone else?
