Tim and Grant Close to Choosing Well, all indications are that both stars are heading to Orlando to play for Doc Rivers. They had a great official weekend (actually they were both there in Florida since mid week) with the Orlando Magic brass, and have planned todiscuss the move withg family, friends and teammates prior to signing. Duncan is presently returned to see Coach Pop and friends. Hill has prolonged his stay in Orlando and is house hunting with his wife. The deal offers both players the maximum under the new CBA of $67.5 M in 6 years. If they both stay with their respective teams for another year, they could ask, and would presumably get the max for a seven year deal at $86.5Million More ...... LINKS: http://orlandosentinel.com/automagic/sports/2000-07-04/SPTmagic04070400.html http://www.hearstnp.com/san_antonio/bea/news/stories/san/san41213.shtml My perspective ..... A very tight source in Florida has told me that Hill IS going to sign and that Duncan wanted to give the San Antonio Spurs a chance to hear it all from him. Tim is expected to cushion the blow with Pop by agreeing to a sign and trade with Orlando, but Duncan IS going to sign with Orlando eventually. It stands to reason if that happens that the Pistons will want a similiar sign and trade deal. But where are the Magic going to get 18 million worth of players to sign and trade? Curious-er and curious-er. Watch for some major player moves and multiple teams involved in this. Has to be multiple teams with so many Free Agents in Orlando. This could all but seal Popovich's fate, and it doesn't help Joe Dumars first crack at player enticement either. Don't expect anything substantial until official deadline, but it looks like the writting is on the wall for both these teams. Spurs are in serious trouble. Pistons at least was moving toward rebuilding. ------------------ [This message has been edited by oeilpere (edited July 04, 2000).]
Well, if Hill goes, Detroit turns sour. Too bad the pick isn't due till 04, where they have lots of time to get Eddy Curry, and turn around the team. Are they planning on getting TMac too? What does this mean for the Rockets, in terms of other free agents? Perhaps Bo Outlaw? Orlando would have 3 SFs (Hill, Miller, Outlaw). Are one of them the odd man out? ------------------ The more lefties on your team, the better. Collier is Seven Foot and Left Handed. How can you go wrong? Trade or bench Kenny Thomas. [This message has been edited by NIKEstrad (edited July 04, 2000).] [This message has been edited by NIKEstrad (edited July 04, 2000).]
I imagine a trade involving draft picks can be made since Orlando has the cap room and thus does not need to match salaries (cap expert please confirm). Pippen to Houston (hate to bring up bad memories) in '98 would be what I'm talking about. ------------------ NOTHING BUT .NET CLUTCHCITY.NET
Detroit My early take on this is that Detroit will go after both Mo Taylor and Jalen Rose. With 9 Million in sign and trade or trade exemption money, they just may be able to do something. A line up with Stackhouse, Rose and Taylor with their present roster and the addition of Cleaves leaves them with some ability to make a good showing this season. San Antonio Anyone expecting Samake Walker to take up Tim's slack saw that experiment late last season. Their sign and trade deal or trade exemption gives them signing room, but the Spurs have a poor record in attracting premier players. More importantly they never seem to have a longterm plan. It appears they get to the opening day of every season and then start figuring what their needs are. In contrast, the elite clubs, and I count the Rockets in this group, have a longterm focus and use their ENTIRE organization to gear up for an impending season schedule. The scouts are scouting, the video guys have miles of video, the coach have assessed all the talent and know what the roster will look like, and most importantly, the Rockets development team know about every deal going on and every exposed player out there in the league. It would not surprise me if the Spurs have little or no Plan B for this evident Duncan departure. At least one that makes sense. Watch them go after the Phoenix Suns and the Dallas Mavericks for help. Now if the could convince someone to take Ensign Robinson they may actually get out of this without imploding. Clutch I am certainly no cap or salary expert,so I could be wrong, but to me the easiest route would be using a straight trade with a signed player( sign and trades can only involve single player movements) and the difference in trade exemption. Example: Ameche signed and traded $3.25 million to San Antonio for Duncan at $9million. SA gets 5.75 in trade exemtion on top of Ameche. Possibly a draft pick to sweeten it, but beggers cannot be choosers. ------------------ [This message has been edited by oeilpere (edited July 04, 2000).]
pere-Some cap things-Detroit and/or San Antonio would not need to accept the full 9 million. You can always trade "down in salary" so they could accept a pick/a 2 million dollar player. Orlando has something like 8 future picks available. I think this makes a TMac to Chicago move imminent, especially with the J. O'Neal rumors. Then, Tim Thomas could follow. (the three are friends. (That means the Bucks downgrade ) That could then force Toronto to offer to Lewis, who then could hold Seattle hostage-" Sign and Trade to Houston, or I walk to Toronto" (not happening ). But, if Chicago got TMac and Timmy T, then that secures Mobley for us. Let's look at the hypothetical Magic roster next year: C-Doleac PF-Duncan SF-Hill, Miller, Harpring, Garrity? SG-Mercer PG-Armstrong others wanted to sign-Amaechi, Ben Wallace, Bo Outlaw I'd assume they'd resign Mercer...his cap hit is low, and they have his Bird rights. Where is the room for Outlaw? If I were the Magic, I'd sign Grant, or Fortson, and put that person at PF, and bump up Duncan to center. But I don't know if they have the cap to do that. Detroit would probably let Hill walk. Then they could rebuild around Jalen Rose. ------------------ The more lefties on your team, the better. Collier is Seven Foot and Left Handed. How can you go wrong? Trade or bench Kenny Thomas. [This message has been edited by NIKEstrad (edited July 04, 2000).]
If Tim and Hill do sign with Orlando, that puts them at the top of the heep in the east. I like their chances against the "Fakers" ------------------
Nike Man, I like how you jump in with both feet. I am beginning to like reading you and Sherlock's ambitious takes. Anyway ..... The Rashard Lewis to Houston thing is still a very long shot. Toronto has some stones and they they have some smarts. They will get max out of TMac's movement. They will go after a couple of players, including Chicago's Fizer IMHO. As I said, I think Detroit will bounce okay especially if they get Rose &/or Taylor., along with that trade exemption. The NY Knicks still need to show some improvement on the roster, or they will get booed out of the city come the fall. They wanted Avery Johnson last year, but they apparently will have Mark Jackson for one year as a player- coach. But they have got to do something about their longterm guard situation (Childs,White,etc) and they have got to loosen some ties with two or three of these four guys: Camby, Thomas, Houston, Sprewell. And in that order of importance. If Seattle loses Lewis (which is still about a 50-50% chance), and cannot unload some cap room with Vinnie, and most importantly, cannot satiate Payton's mounting yearly discomfort, they may have to take a long term look at things and have a fire sale. A trade of GP for some rebuilding hardware could bail them out of a lot of future hardache. Hello, anyone at home. Utah may jump all over this trade(Duncan and Hill) as an affirmation that it is alright, teams can actuallyt survive if their key players are traded. I still see Sloan serious looking at some of the decent offers that Malone and Stockton get over the next month. Boith would be a last gasp effort and a media plus if they ended up in NY for two or three of the knicks mentioned above. How does this Duncan and Hill move affect the Rockets? Here some quick thoughts ... 1. As Nike said, it helps us with solidifying the movemnent of players similiar to Mobes, thus making him less of a target for outside teams. But, you know my feelings on this. Mobes is a done deal. 2. Initially it appears to soften the Spurs who we have to play several times this season. 3. If a three way involvement had to be done to move some players between Orlando and the Spurs or Detroit, I would like to have us involved somehow. I like Bo. But so does everyone else. And you would think both Hill and Duncan would want to have some say in who they will be playing with. 4. It would appear to seal our fates with Rose and Croshere. Rose will stay in Pacerville or go to Detroit. Croshere would stay in Pacerville if Rose left and because Rose and Austin like playing together he would most likely stay there if Rose decides to stay put for Zeke. Effectively, we lose or we lose. No win. ------------------
Free agent wise, we just have to hope Mobley's staying. After that, the best we'll do is a guy like Foyle, maybe if we're lucky Fortson. On the Lewis thing, it's definitely a REAL long shot....say 5% odds. If he wasn't restricted, I'd give it a better chance, but since he is, it's moot. I'm hoping we just pull off a move like a trade for Fizer. btw-You mean Ward not White, right? Detroit only has room for Rose or Taylor if they lose Hill. The Taylor situation has gotten interesting, what do you take on it, about the whole Falk story, and him now having to kiss up to Elgin Baylor? Could perhaps Taylor, who'd fill a big need for LAC at PF, perhaps stay? ------------------ The more lefties on your team, the better. Collier is Seven Foot and Left Handed. How can you go wrong? Trade or bench Kenny Thomas. [This message has been edited by NIKEstrad (edited July 04, 2000).]
NIKEstrad, If the Rockets had drafted Moiso instead of Jason, the Fizer option would be more diificult to contemplate. Mango ------------------ Eat more spinach! Live long and prosper! Donate blood! Smeg will be assimilated. Now...back to updating The Serious Police Files. [This message has been edited by Mango (edited July 04, 2000).]
Mango-yeah, Collier can play back-up center for Hakeem, and we'd still have next year's draft to pick up a true defensive center, which there are several of (top tier players like Woods/Haywood with some offense too, or one dimensional, less sought after shot blocking, defensive athletes (which Cato is) in Alvin Jones, and Ken Johnson). ------------------ The more lefties on your team, the better. Collier is Seven Foot and Left Handed. How can you go wrong? Trade or bench Kenny Thomas.
Since various scenarios are being considered, what could be accomplished with trade exception money if Cato is traded to Chicago? I have already heard the discussions about just holding the salaries down this year and spend next year, so don't answer with that. Just what deal is possible this offseason? Mango ------------------ Eat more spinach! Live long and prosper! Donate blood! Smeg will be assimilated. Now...back to updating The Serious Police Files. [This message has been edited by Mango (edited July 04, 2000).]
The Spurs are out of the elite in the west with Duncan's departure. Thats great for the Rockets because now we only have to worry about playing the Jazz and T-Wolves for our division. ------------------ Know you role...Cuttino! Pass the damn rock to Stevie, fool.
Mango-Which trade exception money? The money we get, or the money we already have? The hypothetical scenario would be Cato/#1/1.5 million of exception for Hawkins/Fizer. We'd then get a 1.3 million exception out of that that's good for another year. I think after free agency gets into swing, we'll find out what's possible. ------------------ The more lefties on your team, the better. Collier is Seven Foot and Left Handed. How can you go wrong? Trade or bench Kenny Thomas.
We take Hawk and give them a #1? I thought it was closer to Cato + #1 = Fizer and that would generate trade exception money since Houston would be going down in salary. Have to think about taking Hawk because he is redundant and don't know if he has much value to any other teams. Already have Walt as the aging vet. Mango ------------------ Eat more spinach! Live long and prosper! Donate blood! Smeg will be assimilated. Now...back to updating The Serious Police Files. [This message has been edited by Mango (edited July 04, 2000).]
Nike: ".... You mean Ward not White, right? ....." Duh!!!! Yup. (Brain fart. Taylor and Rose Actually the possibility of Taylor staying increased the night of the draft. When LAC stole the draft they made themselves a better team (on paper, at least) than any previous draft they ever had. Also, Falk may have got an inkling of what his client's real worth was, when he started shopping and talking (Ya I know, he's not allowed to talk to anyone before the 7/01 deadline, but we all know he did, along with every other agent in this league ). It just may be, that reality made Taylor think that ... yes, maybe 5.5 -6.0 may be a more reasonable amount for the first year of my contract. But, Taylor has ties in Detroit and on the Pistons. I still think the Clips will oust him and take who they have all the way to the playoffs first round. Falk burned some bridges there. Detroit could afford the two in my opinion. Rose will settle for something like $6.0M - $7.0 M, Taylor around the same ... that's $12M to $14m. The Pistons can do it with some effort. $9M X 115% = 10.4M That makes them only $1.6 - $3.6 Million away. Christian Laettner anyone? The key, as I see it, to acquiring both of these guys is they have to see their respective teams as having less an opportunity to advance than their new home with the Pistons. AND, their teams must not be willing or able to pay them what they want. Rose is wanted and will get offered a good contract in Indiana but the team is in turmoil and probably on a down slide regardless of who they re-sign this year. It would be up to Zeke to convince him otherwise. I think Rose is smart. I think he sees the extent of rebuilding needed. Taylor on the other hand, may not get offered the money from LAC, or (with their new found faith in the big deal and a developing team focus) the Clips may offer him a sign and trade. Detroit may accept that. They could use a couple players, including Laettner's one year remaining contract. And do not rule out LALakers PF needs. The triangle needs a third scorer and Jackson may like that option now that Rice is gone, and if PJ Brown (desirable but costly), B Grant(cheaper and more likely) or Kukoc(he likes where he is, unlikely he will be a Laker) falls through. ------------------ "Those Rockets are driving you crazy,Dad!" ........ "Ya, I know. Ain't it great!" [This message has been edited by oeilpere (edited July 04, 2000).]
Well, the idea, would to have them give us the Hawk (he's a FA in 01) which gives them more cap space (makes them happy), and lowers the conditions perhaps to top 15 protected, or Rockets choice over 3 years, or conditional, or just do away with the pick part altogether. Hawkins makes a little over 4 million, so the Bulls would be eager to do something like that. perhaps we could give Detroit Walt and exception for Laettner, and another FA in 01. We cut Walt for next year (when Laettner's an FA) and they get to cut 4 mill off their payroll. ------------------ The more lefties on your team, the better. Collier is Seven Foot and Left Handed. How can you go wrong? Trade or bench Kenny Thomas. [This message has been edited by NIKEstrad (edited July 04, 2000).]
oeilpere: If sign and trades can only involve single player movements then could Orlando 1) Sign Hill and another top notch free agent(i.e. McGrady) for 9 million each. 2) Sign enough free agents to go over the cap. 3) Sign and trade Bo Outlaw with the rockets for the 4.4 Million trade exception. We might even be able to entice them to throw in a 1st round draft pick for Bryce) 4) Sign and trade with San Antonio with Mercer(~3.5 million) + 4.4 trade exception + future 1st round draft picks for Tim Duncan. Do you guys think Orlando will be willing to trade Bo Outlaw & a 1st round draft pick for the 4.4 trade exception that they need for the above deal.
Of course, the Pistons and the Spurs can somehow "benefit" --- I use the term loosely; how do you benefit by losing your superstar? --- by agreeing to sign and trade their players. We'll see if that's what happens. Orlando can sign the two players outright and therefore not weaken its depth. Sure, Grant and Tim lose money on their current contracts. But if they get an opt-out clause? Say, Grant signs a 7-year deal (which will probably take him just to the end of his career, or just shy of the end), with an opt-out timed to get him $14 mil per year? He's worth the back pay that he'd get in such a deal. Same with Tim. Opt-out in 4 years, re-negotiate for $11 mil per season. I see the possibility of sending Mike Miller to Detroit in exchange for Grant, though. They play much the same position (just that one's a superstar, and the other is a fledgeling Great Role Player). Or Mike Miller to some other team, say, an exchange of draft picks. Although Detroit might want to keep cap space and sign Jalen Rose outright. And I think that boy seriously wants to go home. As far as how this makes the Rockets shape up? Actually, I'm thinking these changes of venue (and possibilities) are exciting. Who knows what will happen? I like the thought of the Spurs imploding. They begin to sink as we begin to rise --- very important, considering what is happening in the West with the possible ascension of other teams (Vancouver, Dallas). Without Jalen Rose, Croshere might bolt after all. Who wants to start for a team that's gonna suck? At least the Rockets are on the way up. And Indiana has pieces in place (Bender, Foster, Harrington) that might make a question mark of Croshere's future potential starting job. (Possible drawback, of course, is: do you sign for the 2.3 mil exception for a great organization whose home city might let the team walk, leaving you wondering where the hell will I be in three years, geographically, and will the great players around me stay, or bolt? But let's hope all goes well on that front.) Pere, as you say, free agents like our organization. Tell you the truth, even if your fantastic posts never GIVE NAMES (but you tend to get into la merde profunde, oui?, when you get specific), and even if no one really knows who'll wind up with our team, I trust the organization to do its damndest to make our team the best possible. I'll keep reading everyone else's speculations and inside info with baited breath. Remember, have faith. A year ago people were writing, "Shandon Anderson is a long shot, ain't gonna happen." And guess what? People were b****ing about drafting Kenny Thomas, saying he wasn't worth the pick. And guess what? (OK, so he's no Karl Malone, but he's good, gonna get better. At least he has good trade value.) OK, I'm rambling, but I don't post too much. Every time we say something is impossible, the Rockets make something good happen. Something good will shake out for the Rockets. ------------------
Would Taylor and Rose be going to Detroit has a homecoming or actually think that Detroit was on the way up? If they couldn't muster a charge while Hill was there, how can they be expected to get after it with Taylor and Rose? Mango ------------------ Eat more spinach! Live long and prosper! Donate blood! Smeg will be assimilated. Now...back to updating The Serious Police Files. [This message has been edited by Mango (edited July 04, 2000).]
