Time for the John Edwards thread. This one's for Edwards fan MadMax and serious black, who's been predicting an Edwards win for a while now. Exit polls on Drudge and slate.com have Edwards surging in Wisconsin. Kerry 42, Edwards 31, Dean 15. About a week ago, Edwards was down about 30% to Kerry. Edwards is also gaining ground in Rasmussen's national poll (he's up 7 points and Kerry's down 8 in the last three days). Dean can be a kingmaker here, one way or the other. If he stays in the race and continues to draw any significant number of votes, Edwards probably can't catch Kerry. If Dean drops out it's an instant two man race where the underdog has the momentum. But here's where it gets good. If Dean throws his support to Edwards, this could turn into a really good race. They were just talking about this on Hardball. Howard Fineman (from Newsweek) just said something like 'I'll tell you two things about Governor Dean and Joe Trippi can confirm them. Number one, Dean can't stand the ground Kerry walks on because of the way he ran his campaign..." Trippi interrupted and, smiling mischieviously, said, "I'm not going to confirm that." Fineman said, "And number two, Dean's already said he'd prefer Edwards over Kerry to be the nominee." Hardball just said tonight's speech will be the most important of Edwards' career. Might be a big one for Dean too.
The guy is a trial lawyer whose platform is nothing but class warfare. A one-trick pony destined for the glue factory.
I think this comment only goes to show that Edwards might be rising. If it brings out this kind of spin from TJ, then he must feel Edwards is at least worth some worry.
I like Edwards. And if he does well in Wisconsin, it's good for the party. As long as the primaries don't turn into a "coronation tour" for Kerry, it keeps the spotlight on the Democratic Party and the stark choice they give the American people from the extreme Bush Administration. I can't think of a better way to help counter Bush's obscenely large (t)rove of campaign funds. We keep in the public eye courtesy of the national media. And, who knows? Edwards may have a chance. As long as it doesn't turn into a blood bath, Edwards deserves the opportunity.
Deckard, what you fail to incorporate into your 'analysis' is that a longer race zaps more money from Kerry. He'll need money to compete against the fund-raising juggernaut, GEORGE W BUSH.
2% reporting: Edwards 40 Kerry 37 Dean 17 or 18 Kerry's people are apparently preparing for the possibility of an Edwards upset tonight.
This would be an amazing win for Edwards if he can pull it off. Being down 30+ points 3 or 4 days ago. Wow. This would give him the attention he needs to actually have a fighting chance on Super Tuesday.
I could see myself voting for Edwards, but I would have to find out some more stuff about him, first. He is definitely more appealing to me than Kerry.
7% Edwards 38 Kerry 37 Dean 19 It's getting tighter, but even if Edwards 'loses' he 'wins.' Just saw him on Larry King and then Hardball. He's having a ball.
Not too surprising considering the exit polls. Kerry won Democrats by 11%. Edwards won Independents by 11% and did even better among moderate Republicans.
This is weird. Looking at the exit polls: http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/primaries/pages/epolls/WI/index.html Kerry wins basically in every way. Ultimately, I think this'll be close, but Kerry will win. I disagree that a close 2nd helps Edwards. He's been getting lots of seconds ... at some point, he needs to win to make his mark, and I don't think he can win on Super Tuesday without having won anything significant before that.
Major: respectfully disagree. A close second is huge here. Dean's done and will likely announce that on Thursday. This is a legitimate two man race now. Kerry's got a good lead, but Edwards has momentum (a net gain of 15 points nationally in three days). And there are ten states voting March 2. He's got two weeks and a nationally televised debate to put himself out there. If Kerry had held his 25-35 point lead from a week ago, the big story tonight would be when will Edwards drop out. With a win or a close second tonight the big story is it's a two man race with 75% of delegates still to be selected. With 12% reporting Edwards is up about 700 votes. Every time they flash new numbers there's a new guy in first. That's an incredible upset even considering the polls from yesterday.
if only he'd throw his party one more curveball and endorse edwards...then it could get very interesting.
unfortunately, it's broken so i'm dependant on cc.net and command-post. can't decide which is more fair and balanced!
As is CNN, even though their numbers show Edwards having more votes. They are saying they are doing it based on exit poll results, but they had those an hour ago. Bizarro.
Totally weird. 23% reporting with Kerry ahead 26 votes. I have no idea how they're projecting a winner.
I will "respectively disagree", T_J. The constant and extensive coverage in magazines like Time and Newsweek, lead stories on the network news and major outlets like CNN and even Faux News, and equally extensive coverage in the daily papers, from USA Today, the Christian Science Monitor, the LA Times... every major rag across the country... that's advertising that can't be bought. And I fully expect you to dismiss it.
