Just a question, should the U.S. do something or able to do something about this? http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&ncid=721&e=1&u=/nm/20040923/wl_nm/korea_north_missile_dc Sources: N.Korea May Be Preparing Missile Launch 9 minutes ago Add World - Reuters to My Yahoo! By Teruaki Ueno TOKYO (Reuters) - The United States and Japan have detected signs that North Korea (news - web sites) is preparing to launch a ballistic missile capable of reaching almost anywhere in Japan, Japanese government sources said Thursday. The preparations were detected after the reclusive communist state refused to take part in a fourth round of six-party talks on ending its nuclear ambitions and said it would never give up its nuclear deterrent. Tokyo and Washington had detected the signs after analyzing data from reconnaissance satellites and radio traffic, the Japanese government sources said. North Korean military vehicles, soldiers and possibly missile engineers were converging on several Rodong missile bases in the northeastern part of the isolated communist state, they said. The signs were first detected Tuesday, the sources said. "At this stage we don't think North Korea's missile launch is imminent," one source told Reuters on condition of anonymity. "But we still don't know whether North Korea is serious about missile launches." Japanese Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi said late on Thursday North Korea was unlikely to test-fire another ballistic missile, Kyodo news reported. "The reports I've had say it is nothing to make a fuss about," Kyodo quoted Koizumi as telling reporters. "I think the possibility of launching one is low." He didn't elaborate. NHK television quoted several unidentified Japanese government sources as saying that a missile launch now would be impossible from a common sense point of view with talks between Japanese and North Korean officials over the question of Japanese abducted by the North due to start in two days. Pyongyang said Thursday the United States had chosen Japan as a "strategic vantage point" to implement a pre-emptive attack, a move it said aimed to bring North Korea under U.S. control. "(The United States) plans to use Japan as an advance base in hurling into the Korean Peninsula a task force from its mainland and other areas in case of its emergency," said Rodong Sinmun, the North's main daily newspaper. SHOCKED THE WORLD North Korea shocked the world when it fired a missile over Japan in 1998. The test of the Taepodong ballistic missile demonstrated that major population areas, including Tokyo, were within the estimated 1,000-km (600-mile) range of the missile. South Korean Vice Unification Minister Rhee Bong-jo said on Thursday he could not rule out the possibility of North Korea test-firing a missile again. "Activities related to North Korea's missiles have been detected recently," Rhee told reporters in Seoul. "But our assessment is that they are likely part of an annual exercise by a North Korean missile unit," he said. "We cannot rule out the possibility of a test firing, so South Korean and U.S. authorities are following the indications." Japan's defense ministry Tuesday sent two destroyers -- one equipped with an Aegis radar system -- and an EP-3 electronic surveillance aircraft to the Sea of Japan to boost its early warning and surveillance abilities, the government sources said. Many of the Rodong missiles are stored underground, but there were no signs that liquid fuel had been injected into any, the Yomiuri Shimbun newspaper quoted government sources as saying. The newspaper quoted missile experts as saying it could take up to two weeks to prepare for a launch. North Korea is thought to have one or two nuclear bombs and experts believe it has deployed as many as 200 Rodong missiles, which have a range of about 1,300 km (800 miles) and are capable of hitting Japan. The launch of a ballistic missile by North Korea would raise tension in Northeast Asia, another Japanese source said. "It is crystal clear that North Korea will be more isolated from the international community if they launch a ballistic missile," he said. "What really matters to us is that this region could become less stable." He said any North Korean missile venture could jeopardize the six-party talks on its nuclear weapons ambitions. China, Japan, Russia, South Korea (news - web sites) and the United States are trying to persuade the North to ditch its suspected nuclear programs in exchange for security guarantees and energy aid. North Korea said last weekend it would never give up its nuclear deterrent. A fourth round of talks had been scheduled for this month but North Korea has said it sees no point in more negotiations because of what it describes as Washington's "hostile" policy
This sucks. It's probably going to mean billions more dollars going down the drain on our horrible missile-defense projects.
Why was it that Bush thought it was a good idea to move our troops away from the border of Korea where the dictator there is gearing up with missle tests and a one million man army?
What can we do? As I see it not much besides a stern "No, No, bad dictator for life. Bad." Too weak a response (i.e. nothing) and we run the risk of this trend continuing at a quicker pace. Then again it could continue on its own because KJI is a nutball (technical term). Too strong a move and we could make China nervous. Nobody wants us to make China nervous, least of all Taiwan. While China is flexing muscle at anyone else it might just get an itch and scratch all of that little island of the planet. (And people wonder why the Taiwanese are always fist fighting in their parliament, they're stressed!) This region is what Political Scientists like to call a tinder box. One spark and the whole region could go up in flames.
I think it silly to propose that missle defense systems are impossible to create. We'll never do it without spending the cash. N Korea is the perfect example of why its needed. You simply cannot invade a country once they've gone nuclear and have a long range delivery system. You also cannot negotiate in good faith with a nutcase who watches cowboy movies, sings karyoke, and has sex with little girls. Its like the Neverland Ranch having a nuclear arsenal. While the bi-polar cold war drastically slowed nuclear proliferation, the end of that struggle has unleashed a new spectre of horizontal proliferation that may end up being much more dangerous.
This will be a good test for the all-powerful United Nations! We should let them assemble an Army of non US and British troops (since we are busy on other fronts) and weaponry and go put N. Korea in it's place. I mean that's what everyone thought we should do in Iraq right? Gather support of other countries and send in a World Army so the US doesn't have to pay for it and so we don't lose as many troops.
its no surprise that they have another missile, but what many people tend to regress to is that North Korea is a crazy state. Lil Kim is certainly a little looney, but their policy, as a state is actually very rational considering what they have. Right now, they're upset that they aren't getting as much attention as they did in the past. Before, every time they had some type of outburst like this, you know what happened? they got food and money from China, Japan and the US. I doubt they will use them because it's their meal ticket, they have proven that it can be more profitable to put their money in defense spending, than in their people. They will only actively use those missiles if put in a situation where collapse is imminent. Mulder got it, two things will send the continent into disarray, the Taiwan strait and the koreas, either of which could set the other off, as the US cannot defend both at the same time (although new Chinese leadership seems to be pretty adverse to military measures, times have changed, huh?). This is why we are so cautious about it and can't just Iraq it. (although we've proven we can't Iraq Iraq either) Here's the other catch of the equation that is basically completely ignored in the news. If a war is started, thousands of artillery are pointed at Seoul's temple at every given moment. If NK shot all their missiles at Japan now, the death toll would pale in comparison to South Korean deaths. CIA estimates that if North Korea waged an artillery attack on Seoul, up to 2 million people would die in less than 5 hours. And then they reload. And as you can probably guess, missile defense cannot stop hundreds of thousands of shells. This is a very underreported fact in the region which compromises the situation more than missiles or their nuclear development program. This is also why we can't and won't invade them. The sad thing is, we won't be batting an eyelash at them until after the election, but I won't be surprised if Lil Kim tries to take the attention away from the other wars going on, namely Iraq and Vietnam.
While I oppose development of a "Star Wars" missile defense system, it's not because I think it's technologically impossible. I have no doubt that with enough time and resources we could develop a system that would defend us against they type of threat posed by a N. Korea, (but not a China or Russia, they would likely be able to overwhelm any system we could develop). T he issue is for me is- What is the biggest threat? I think we are much more likely to suffer an attack from a terrorist group that has acquired technology and materials from poorly secured stockpiles in the the former Soviet Union or from Pakistan. I want to see the attention, energy, and resources devoted to stopping that threat. I think development of a missile shield is an expensive distraction from the much greater threat. Any country that launches a missile against the U.S. knows that the source of the missile will be identified and that and we will respond with massive retaliation. That is a strong deterrent.
the troops were moved because they were sitting ducks where they were. s. korea wanted us to leave them in place, on the theory that n. korea wouldn't attack if they thought it meant killing 35k US troops. the US has felt they were in too much danger for years. clearly, you can't entrust the safety of 35k americans to the whims of a madman.
You're assuming rational actors and N Korea aren't, or at least Junior isn't and he's in charge. Just as a nuclear Ayatollah wouldn't be. Just as a warlord wouldn't necessarily be if China disintegrates.
It comes down to an assessment of relative threats and allocation of finite attention, energy, and resources. If you read James Fallow's article that I recently posted, he discusses similar issues regarding the "opportunity costs" involved in the Iraq war.
you're mixing up criminal and rational. Getting people to think that Lil Kim is irrational is his greatest success. He's just a guy who has mastered the age old skill of tricking people to give him stuff so he doesn't do something "crazy" in return. He's simply an extortionist, and he's damn good at it. If you can master that, it makes you rational in my book.
because it never stops. not worth it. and because it's coming from me it will be perceived as whining.
understood. I respect your opinions though and am disappointed that the topic couldn't be discussed further. Perhaps another time.
