[Thinking outside the Box] Opportunity for the rox in new CBA negotiation

If you let Hayes walk, trade Battier and Andersen for expirings (i.e. Ilgauskas) and Yao accepts about 6 mill less per year, then you're close.

 

DM is down, Yao is down, I am down...


At the same time, this would be a HUGE risk. No telling what the 2010 free agents will do, and it would blow to rework a contract with Yao just to see him get hurt again. Maybe a gamble worth taking?

 

Uh . . . not quite. I think Sooner is much closer to the truth.

Let's say that Yao opts out and takes a new starting salary of $13M and the Rockets also keep Hayes, then the Rockets would have about $14-16M to spread across Dorsey, Scola, Lowry, their first round pick AND any free agents. Also, trading Battier for "expirings" is going to be hard to do if it's not done this week. He'd essentially have to be traded this summer to a team with cap space; and who'd want to give up $7.4M in cap space for Shane?

Nice thinking (and it may actually be a strategy for both Yao and the Rockets), but I still don't think the dollars or timing would work out so that the Rockets could offer a max contract to an outside free agent.

 

I hope Yao does take a pay cut. It would definitely help the team. With his injury history, it's too risky to give him the max. 10 mil a year would be giving him the benefit of the doubt.

He has always been a team first kind of guy. I believe he will take a paycut. I just don't see him signing elsewhere for a few extra bucks.

 

Sounds like a good idea. So if Yao takes a $7.5M pay cut in exchange for an extension, we have, what, somewhere right around $20M in cap space before re-signing Scola and Lowry, depending on where the cap is set exactly?

That leaves a lot of options. The simplest would be to simply let Scola walk, but that may not be the best choice. Alternatively, you could re-sign him and trade Battier or Ariza. Or some other combination, like declining Chuck's option and trading Andersen.

Depends pretty heavily on what Yao wants to do and whether Morey wants to roll the dice on extending him.

If this happens it could be the best argument for holding onto McGrady's contract at the deadline, or moving him only for expirings.

 

Why would the Rockets even consider doing this if Yao would only take a $4M pay cut? You're right, though, it wouldn't make sense if that was the case.

 

Well, it's really not the Rockets' call here. It is YAO's option. If he decides to opt out, he'll be an UNRESTRICTED free agent. If the Rockets don't offer $13-14M+, I can guarantee you that some team with cap room (New Jersey? New York? Chicago? Miami?) will offer him that much or more if it strikes out on Lebron, Wade or Bosh. Yao's revenue-generating ability (especially in this economy) is well worth that salary, even if he only gives you "Zydrunas Ilgauskas circa mid-2000s" production.

 

I don't see it happening though.

Yao is one of the few players in NBA who writes paycheck for himself, using
Jonathan Feigen's words.

At this moment, it's still soft cap. There are two ways to get more players: Yao take a pay cut, Les pay more for LT. If you consider Yao's worldwide revenue generating has not only covered Yao's salary ,but also made Les richer, the logicical choice should be for Les to go over LT. Yao has paid Les and played for free for quite some years, it's not really fair to ask him to take a pay cut while there are other choices. And it's not like Rockets is losing money.

Yao's contract only lasts for one more year. If after the new CBA, a hard cap is applied, then there is only one way to get more good players, that will be the time for Yao to consider taking a pay cut for team's sake.

 

Even if the Rockets were able to do all the things necessary to have enough money to offer a max contract, how many players are there that will be worth paying max dollars to when considering the possibility of an upcoming hard cap?

If a team gets stuck with a second-tier superstar (read: not LeBron or Wade) getting max, or near max, dollars, then they could end up regretting that contract for years unless there is some kind of clause that allows that big contract not to hurt the team after the implementation of the hard cap.

Basically, if GMs have to seriously consider the impact of signing players to big contracts that will carry over into a possible hard cap era, are there any players other than LeBron and Wade worth offering max dollars to this summer?

Personally, I don't believe Bosh or Amar'e or Joe Johnson would be worth it if their non-hard cap contracts have the possibility of carrying over into the hard cap era.

So what if Wade and LeBron don't want to come to Houston? Do you take the risk of signing a guy like Bosh to max dollars, assuming even he wanted to come to Houston?

There is also the possibility that none of the first or second-tier stars want to play in Houston. Demand for the few true elite players becoming FAs this summer will likely outweigh the supply.

 

I agree with you, although I think Bosh is probably worth it. I think Ray Allen or Ginobili would be a nice pick-up with the mle this off-season.

 

I'd say Bosh is the only other player that anybody could even argue should be considered a cream-of-the-crop, bonafide franchise player with years and years of MVP-caliber basketball left in the tank out of this summer's FA class, along with, of course, LeBron and Wade. Personally, I'm not sure Bosh fits into this category while I'm absolutely certain about LeBron and Wade.

Regardless, the 2010 FA class has a lot of sexy names but only 2 or 3 of them are young, in-their-prime stars (Wade isn't quite as young) that you could really consider building a championship team around at max dollars during a possible upcoming hard cap era.

There will also likely be more demand for these 2 or 3 players than there will be supply so what if LeBron, Wade and Bosh don't want to come to Houston? Then, what?

You've extended the immensely talented but very injury-prone Yao Ming for additional years in a possible hard cap era and are going to either walk away from this hyped up 2010 free agency market empty-handed or overpay for a second or third-tier star.

 

An important Rockets related question is will the lockout/negotiations happen before or after the free agent period follwing next season.

Why redo Yaos contract this year when it will cost maybe 15 million, while it could be only 6-8 the following year?

 

If you guys think Yao will play for cheap you guys are smoking something good. With alot of teams having cap space, if the Rockets don't sign him for the max, someone like the Bulls if they strike out on Wade, would want to sign him.

 

You always have to pay those bigmen.

 

Teams needing to compete might not have a choise. I think you have to view it from the talent area that is rare for players like Bosh. James and Bosh might get the max. Wade however might (maybe). Players like Wade are rare, but they are also not classified as the bigmen which are even more rare.

 

If the Rockets were going to do this, wouldn't it be more beneficial to let t-mac's contract expire?