Theory-Is Rent Carmelo a smooth way to blow it up?

or we could just tank and get the same benefits without losing key pieces. i think your theory is flawed and i would be pissed if we blew it up for a rental.

 

That's silly, because it assumes that Anthony is some 'probability' that may stick with us or may not if we acquire him. Just ask him! If he will promise an extension, then by all means proceed. If not, then there is no point in giving up assets for him, as he's clearly not taking us to the Finals in one year.

 

This is the scenario I believe Morey is trying to achieve. Most teams think of getting the great players and building the rest of the team around them. Morey seems to be doing the opposite although that was probably not the original plan. He has done a great job of acquiring assets/role players mainly because that was what was available. Maybe he gets lucky and finds a star with one of those assets but so far that hasn't happened. He has found some some very good players that have exceeded expectations but no star yet.

So now he needs to find a "superstar". Easier said than done. Most fans are starting to become frustrated but he tried to see if Yao would be able to play and "superstars" are just not available that often. He has put us in a good position to get one when the time comes up but for now we will have to be patient.

 

Retool > Rebuild.

Melo is a clown and is a whipped dog. He goes where his ugly wife lala wants to go.

 

I agree. We have the role players; we just don't have the star.

 

The flaw is in that renting a Melo means we put off rebuilding another year, when we could make some moves via FA and trades this season and summer before next year. IF we get Melo, we likely aren't in the lottery this season. Why delay the inevitable and lose assets for potential moves in the process. I don't see the logic.

 

While I agree on the whipped part, it doesn't change the fact that he is a player who can take over late in the game, which this Rockets team desperately needs.

 

Interesting theory. It could very well work, and we would suck just in time for a predicted deeper draft class in 2012. But it could also have some potentially unintended consequences.

As much as Rockets fans find things unbearable during a 5 game losing streak, a couple horrible seasons and Adelman and Morey could possibly lose their jobs or have a serious threat of it. Adelman might lose his because he has no talent to win, and Morey might because his decision to gamble could have failed entirely.

#1 is a no brainer and I agree you have to pull that deal if he signs. But the idea of convincing him to sign after the deal is a bad one to me. If he wants to sign before the trade he will, or he won't. He knows what team he wants to play for and won't need coaxing, Denver already tried this strategy.

#2 I would only do this if the deal was for a small cost. Even then it still kind of sucks because if the trade (perhaps with other moves) doesn't win us a championship during the rental, we have less talent for a better trade later.

and a #3 option is we could trade players for a higher draft pick. Or for future draft picks. We could also suck in general and potentially do well in the lottery and get a good pick with the (fairly young) talent we have. There are no guarantees with any strategy, but I think I don't think I would want to waste talent in half year rental.

 

Tank one season, go draft Hakeem part 2. We already have the role players, add a Hakeem/Duncan/Superstar player to this team and you got all the ingredients necessary.
Hey, and if we really get lucky, we can add that huge Chinese guy for 10-20mpg next year for cheap, I wouldn't mind having such a player come off the bench..

Everyone just needs to know there role, and respect it.

 

Back to your argument, one of the big problems is that to get Melo you will have to give up YOUNG assets, good for rebuilding teams, such as picks, young players with potential.
So, if Melo leaves, you get dry with old role players, and that is all.

 

Yeah, let's just tank.

Tell Scola, Lowry, Brooks, Martin + others to not give a **** for a few years while we lose on purpose? After a few years, if we are lucky enough to find even mediocre franchise player, you tell them: "Hey boys, vacation is over, now we can start playing hard again, really." How good these "key pieces" are going to be then after a few years of coke, strippers and buffets?

Or maybe you want to trade them after the years of tanking nets us a franchise player? Who the **** is going to want the lazy bums with ****ty numbers then?

The players probably have also no incentive to sit with phantom injuries as they are playing for their next contract. Same with the young guys who actually want to improve and get a nice contract? They will play hard. If they play hard and we actually lose all the time? Then they probably aren't key pieces, they are busts.

Same benefits my ass.

In conclusion, the OP has a point. The easiest way to get get really good draft picks is to trade established players for picks (though it's likely that it nets you lesser value) and suck for a while or package the assets for a star that bolts and leaves us with ****. The drawback of starting completely over is that it most likely takes a really long time to build up the supporting cast you sold for 50 cents on a dollar. Look at OKC, they are nowhere near of winning anything, and they got pretty lucky with Durant + Westbrook.

 

If we rent Melo then I think it will have to do more with giving them cap relief then young assets. Sure, we would probably lose Hill, Bud and one of Martin, Scola or AB but maybe not a pick or a pick and not one of the youngsters. It would probably also require us to take on a crappy deal as well, someone like Balkman or Harrington.

I am torn on Melo, I would love to see him here but at the same time, believe there is VERY little chance he re-signs and we would be looking at a sign and trade once the NBA resumes. At the very least, if we do make a deal then I would want Martin, Scola or AB involved, as it gives us a chance to get out of one of those deals or potential deals in AB's case. We could then throw around the extra cash at a Gasol in the offseason or wait it out for 2012, which I believe is Morey's goal anyway.

 

And before somebody brings up the tanking working for the Spurs, there are some things to look at:

1) Spurs had a MVP caliber player and not much else. Of course when he sits out, they aren't going to win that much.

2) How many Tim Duncans do you think every draft has? You could have ten consecutive drafts and never get a chance to draft as good player as him. (And Blake Griffin isn't as good, DD)

3) Do you remember Rick Pitino and the Celtics? With the worst record that year they were licking their chops and waiting for Duncan to come and catapult them into contention and what happened?

 

Drafting an "Hakeem part 2" in the draft after tanking is not an automatic. The draft is even riskier today than it was in the past because all the high draft picks are now freshman and sophomores. That is too big of a gamble in my mind. Tanking and a high draft pick also means a bad record = losing fans = losing money. I don't think management wants this. You also have to factor in the uncertainty of which pick you get because of the ping pong balls.

So lets say we get Carmelo only. He looks at the rest of the team but isn't convinced we are a contender so he doesn't resign. But what if we get Carmelo and (for example..don't freak out) Nash? Instant contenders although probably not the favorites. Before you say Nash is too old in this case we are looking to be contenders right away and hopefully for a 2-3 years. This will also help to draw top free agents if salary cap permits.

Either way it is a gamble and there is also quite a bit of luck involved.

 

Rental or Long term, either way, we need a star now and start from there. Sure is worth taking the risk. We're losing and it's getting pretty boring.

 

And also the difference that you have sacrificed other young talent to acquire a guy who may bolt first chance he gets. I'd rather stand pat with our current crop and possibly make a move during the draft and bring in someone like Nene in the offseason, rather than send away Brooks/Lowry, Lee/Twill, Bud/Hill/Patterson and draft picks, all the while killing financial flexibility. The reason the Rockets are even in the discussion in the first place is because we accrued assets with upside and draft picks, and maintaining some semblance of cap maneuverability while building around a star we already had. This is the genius in Morey's moves thus far. Why not wait for another disgruntled superstar (CP3 type) to come along, this offseason, next season, whenever, instead of jumping at the first on the market? Especially one who's already shown a proclivity to hold his franchise hostage for his own benefit? I want a star that wants to be here, and sees his success and the team's as one in the same. Getting Melo means we sacrifice any opportunity to rebuild in the wake of his potential departure.


The only potential deal with Denver I would accept is if we can get Billups along with him while keeping Scola to make a run this season. That's our best chance to convince him to stay anyway in my opinion - a deep playoff run. If we can get Billups+Melo and could come away with something like the following, I'm all for it even if it means taking on Al Harrington's contract. Just threw this together real quick with trade machine, and I'd assume a couple of picks would also be thrown in:

Den: Melo+Billups+Harrington
Hou: Yao+Jeffries+Brooks+Hill+Patterson+Twill+picks

Leaves us with a rotation looking like this:

Billups / Lowry / Ish
Martin / Lee
Melo / Battier / Bud
Scola / Harrington
Miller / Chuckwagon

Tell me that squad can't run with the rest of the west, and say we re-sign Yao for cheap next season, that may be enough to sway Melo to sway. Super versatile and can run a few different styles, get out in transition but execute great in halfcourt (especially in Adelman's system). Only concern would be a lack of interior D in the playoffs, but the league is slowly becoming more guard oriented anyway.

 

This isn't the CD/JVG era where we have 1 or 2 "superstars" and surround them with washed up former Knicks.

Morey has the eye for acquiring young talent and RA has the know how to get the most out of the young talent.

How many of these supposed young assets are we going to keep while continuing to acquire them? I know we value a lot of our own young talent on a high level but we have too many of them now.

We have the chips to acquire a superstar (Melo) right now. I think it's a move that needs to be made. It's not like Morey is going to all of a sudden quit acquiring young assets. Furthermore, since we're so stacked with young players I think it's hindering the development of all of them.

I say we pick 3 or 4 out of the following players Lowry, Brooks, Martin, Lee, CBud, Williams, Hill, Patterson and use the rest as part of a trade to lure that superstar. None of these players are good enough to be a legit superstar (at least not now) and lead a team but they're good as option 3, 4, 5 etc. We need a legit #1 option.