Tua and Hurts are #2 and #4 in QBR this season right there with Mahomes and Allen. They are also the 2nd youngest QBs in the league. Even if you aren't into Bryce, Bo Nix and Clayton Tune are not serious NFL QB candidates.
The difference is that Mayfield was the #1 pick - people recognized underlying talent there and just haven't been able to make it work. No one saw anything in Mills or Allen, which is why they were drafted where they were. And they have lived up to those expectations.
This right here…the more I watch, and think and eye test what he’s actually doing…it’s gotta be Bryce Young
They better draft him... The buzz alone will be worth it because these sorry mfers ain't on anyone's radar... Not even in the city
I'm almost there with you. I would rather bolster the D with Anderson and take a punt with Levis with our 2nd pick. QBs are a crap shoot and we need a strong QB coaching staff anyway - which I don't think we have.
QB's aren't a crap shoot. #1 picks are more successful than 1st rounders who are more successful than 2nd rounders who are more successful than 3rd rounders, etc. In the last 7 years, 6 of the QBs in the Super Bowl were overall #1 picks, despite being just 0.4% of the total draft. Another 2 were 1st round picks, 2 more 2nd round round picks, and then 4 Tom Brady's. Note that many, many of these were not playing with the teams that drafted them but ultimately, the cream tends to rise to the top. There's a reason QB's get picked so high.
Exactly this. Comparing the first pick of the draft versus the other 258 or so, seems to be the MO for many in order to justify their non-qb first pick they want. Of course you can find examples of successful picks after 1.1.because there are literally thousands of them. Does that mean that it's asikely to hit on a player drafted at 3.13 than it is at 1.1? Absolutely not.
That's true of all positions though. The big difference is a successful QB pick can be your franchise QB for the next 15 years. A successful non-QB pick will often simple leave anyway due to price or simply have a shorter career with your team. Mario Williams and Jadaevon Clowney were pretty good for the Texans - I would argue they were hits on #1 picks rather than misses (despite missing time). But they still had little impact on the franchise and were gone after 5 years. A franchise's top priority has to be getting a franchise QB. Nothing else matters unless you successfully find one. That's not to say they have to use the #1 pick on a QB - they could go try to trade for an elite one or sign one in free agency. But relying on lower picks and hoping the 4th or 5th best QB in a given class pans out is a route to mediocrity.
Spoiler 2021 1-1 Trevor Lawrence 2020 1-1 Joe Burrow 2019 1-1 Kyler Murray 2018 1-1 Baker Mayfield (drafted by Cleveland; claimed by LA) 2016 1-1 Jared Goff (Rams traded up from 15; drafted by LA; traded to Detroit) 2015 1-1 Jameis Winston (drafted by Tampa; signed with New Orleans) 2009 1-1 Matthew Stafford (drafted by Detroit; traded to LA) 2021 1-2 Zach Wilson 2017 1-2 Mitchell Trubisky (Bears traded up from 3; drafted by Chicago; signed with Steelers) 2016 1-2 Carson Wentz (Eagles traded up from 8; drafted by Philadelphia; traded to Washington) 2015 1-2 Marcus Mariota (drafted by Tennessee; signed with Falcons) 2021 1-3 Trey Lance (49ers traded up from 12) 2018 1-3 Sam Darnold (Jets traded up from 6; drafted by New York; traded to Carolina) 2008 1-3 Matt Ryan (drafted by Atlanta; traded to Indianapolis) 2020 1-5 Tua Tagovailoa 2020 1-6 Justin Herbert 2019 1-6 Daniel Jones 2018 1-7 Josh Allen (Bills traded up from 12) 2012 1-8 Ryan Tannehill (drafted by Miami; traded to Tennessee) 2017 1-10 Patrick Mahomes (Chiefs traded up from 27) 2021 1-11 Justin Field (Bears traded up from 20) 2017 1-12 Deshaun Watson (Texans traded up from 25; drafted by Houston; traded to Cleveland) 2021 1-15 Mac Jones 2022 1-20 Kenny Pickett 2005 1-24 Aaron Rodgers 2018 1-32 Lamar Jackson (Ravens traded up from 52) 2011 2-35 Andy Dalton (drafted by Cincinnati; signed with Saints) 2014 2-36 Derek Carr 2013 2-39 Geno Smith (drafted by New York; signed with Seattle) 2020 2-53 Jalen Hurts 2014 2-62 Jimmy Garoppolo (drafted by New England; traded to San Francisco) 2021 3-67 Davis Mills 2012 3-75 Russell Wilson (drafted by Seattle; traded to Denver) 2016 3-91 Jacoby Brissett 2012 4-102 Kirk Cousins (drafted by Washington; signed with Vikings) 2016 4-135 Dak Prescott 2022 4-137 Bailey Zappe 2018 5-171 Mike White (drafted by Dallas; signed with Jets) 2000 6-199 Tom Brady (drafted by New England; signed with Bucs) 2022 7-262 Brock Purdy 2020 Undrafted Bryce Perkins 2018 Undrafted Kyle Allen 2018 Undrafted John Wolford 2017 Undrafted Cooper Rush 2017 Undrafted PJ Walker 2015 Undrafted Taylor Heinicke
A top QB is a good recipe for potential success and ultimately getting the big prize but they are not the be all and end all. Just ask Green Bay at the moment. A solid all round team and top coaching and a powerful D is ideal but Texans aren't getting there any time soon. There is always a chance of hitting on a good QB out of the first round.
If they think Young is capable of being a top 10 QB then you pick him. Otherwise they are too far away and he is too risky to select at 1.1. I believe I'd select Anderson first and then trade back and pick up Anthony Richardson late in the first or Cameron Ward in Round 3. I'd need to really believe that Richardson will develop into a modern day Randall Cunningham. With Ward in the 3rd I'm getting him in the building to see what he can be molded into knowing that there are QB prospects next year if he doesn't develop.
This is why I want Bryce. He thinks like this in the middle of play. Some guys think quicker than others.
He’s faster than Mahomes and heaving a football like an alligator is something a middle school cheer leader can do. The game being so slow to do that is why he is special.
I’ll say this - if we must draft a QB this year, it needs to be Young. He’s the only QB with clear cut upside of the 2023 group. Levi’s is fool’s gold that I hope a team like Tennessee or Indy falls for. Stroud somehow has avoided the criticism usually levied at Bama QBs in facing the NFL without their surrounding weapons. Ward has dart throw potential but can we wait and hope THIS team will develop darts? AR15 feels like Tebow 2.0 where someone will force it, a few years from now someone will suggest moving him to TE and then he’ll be out of the league. it has to be Young or nothing this year, otherwise I only want a late round dart throw with eyes to 2024. If we do wait, it better be because we value Maye or Williams over Young and then we have to hope our waiting-QB stays healthy and we finish high enough in 2024 draft to select him.
